SURF:
FORECAST:
After the little SW this weekend, we'll get a slightly better SW on Tuesday that will make shoulder high sets in far north county SD and the OC. We'll also have some leftover NW windswell. The 2nd half of the week looks to have some background SW swell for chest high sets in far north SD and the OC again.
WEATHER:
Of course when the 1st day of summer rolls around, it won't be as nice as today. Gotta love June Gloom! So enjoy the summer like weather today while you can. Looks like we'll peak around 80 today at the beaches and then high pressure starts to break down slightly this weekend. No big deal- just some fog at the beaches tomorrow that will burn off in the afternoons. Saturday should have temps in the mid-70's once the early fog is gone and Sunday will be 70. Early next week looks to be the same- low clouds and fog in the mornings with temps in the mid 60's. Models hint at a low pressure system coming our way towards next weekend but to predict showers that far out would be blasphemy.
BEST BET:
Sunday afternoon should be fun with some little S swell and peaking NW windswell. Just beware the early morning fog! Or wait a little longer for a better SW on Tuesday but not much NW in the water and slightly cooler conditions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Over the years, scientists have been predicting various changes in our climate due to Global Warming; from mid-latitude deserts encroaching to temperate climates, to storms becoming more violent, and sea ice melting which would result in rising sea levels. For scientists studying summer sea ice in the Arctic, it’s not a question of “if” there will be nearly ice-free summers, but “when.” And two scientists say that “when” is sooner than many thought — before 2050 and possibly within the next decade or two. James Overland of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Muyin Wang of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, looked at three methods of predicting when the Arctic will be nearly ice free in the summer. The work was published recently online in the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters. “Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere,” said Overland. “Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change.” “There is no one perfect way to predict summer sea ice loss in the Arctic,” said Wang. “So we looked at three approaches that result in widely different dates, but all three suggest nearly sea ice-free summers in the Arctic before the middle of this century.” Overland and Wang emphasized that the term “nearly” ice free is important as some sea ice is expected to remain north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.
•The “trendsetters” approach uses observed sea ice trends. These data show that the total amount of sea ice decreased rapidly over the previous decade. Using those trends, this approach extrapolates to a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by 2020.
•The “stochasters” approach is based on assuming future multiple, but random in time, large sea ice loss events such as those that occurred in 2007 and 2012. This method estimates it would take several more events to reach a nearly sea ice-free state in the summer. Using the likelihood of such events, this approach suggests a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by about 2030 but with large uncertainty in timing.
• The “modelers” approach is based on using the large collection of global climate model results to predict atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice conditions over time. These models show the earliest possible loss of sea ice to be around 2040 as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the Arctic warms. But the median timing of sea ice loss in these models is closer to 2060. There are several reasons to consider that this median timing of sea ice loss in these models may be too slow.
“Some people may interpret this to mean that models are not useful. Quite the opposite,” said Overland. “Models are based on chemical and physical climate processes and we need better models for the Arctic as the importance of that region continues to grow.” Taken together, the range among the multiple approaches still suggests that it is very likely that the timing for future sea ice loss will be within the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.
That’s mind boggling to think that in the very near future you’d be able to travel to the Arctic in the summer and not see any ice…
BEST OF THE BLOG:
You like barrels? You like bargains? Well the North County Surf blog's got both. From mad food deals to feed the whole family for around $20 bucks to barrels from Slater, Fanning, Owen- and even some vintage Kelly Slater Black and White Footage. It's the morning of the finals. So slip on your star trunks and check it out on the blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check AND an in-depth THE Surf Report; all of that and more in the blog below.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
If Western Oz doesn't have it good enough already with Margaret River, The Box, Desert Point, Gnarlaroo, and countless other bombing waves, you can also add to the list North Point. Taj Burrow made this place famous in his countless videos and there's been a few touring pros tackling this place over the years too (Jamie O'Brien comes to mind). Anyway, it's always good for a triple up and gets real gurgly at the end. Man I could go for a good slab right now.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Just Peachy
Jedi Master
Going to Hossegor This Fall with Curren and Cole
