THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Time to get back to basics.

SURF:
Great weather and surf last weekend. A little lined up but the best reefs and points were going off. If you didn't mind 100 or so of your closest friends sharing a wave or two.

We then got a little boost out of the NW again on Tuesday with less then stellar conditions but still manageable. Tonight there's leftover NW in the water with a touch of tiny SW for chest high sets. Tomorrow looks to be a tad smaller with waist high+ waves in town with an occasional chest high wave in SD. The clouds above won't cooperate either and we'll have a light texture on the water from SW winds.

Saturday the weak storm starts to exit the region and we get a mix of NW windswell/groundswell for shoulder high sets and possibly moderate NW winds. Nothing like last weekend but you will find a wave or two to surf. The NW holds on Sunday and the weather cleans up slightly. 

Water temps still are still a comfortable 61 degrees- and tides the next few days are starting to vary greatly again: 5.5' at sunrise, down to -0.5' after lunch, and up to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Nothing really exciting on the horizon. Monday is pretty meager and Tuesday morning starts out the same- then we get a little bump out of the NW again for shoulder high sets. Weather should be nice too. That holds into Wednesday. Thursday drops into the waist-chest high range then Saturday we get another shot of NW- hopefully head high if the models cooperate. We also may get a chest high SW which would make the beach breaks tons of fun. Further out, things go quiet in the north Pacific for a few days but charts show a good SW trying to take shape and shoot us some head high+ swell towards the weekend of the 13th. It's still pretty early for southern hemisphere swell season- so I'll take it with a grain of salt- but exciting nonetheless.

WEATHER:

The 'Santa Anas' then 'tropical showers' last week are gone, and now we're left with low clouds and cool temps. That lingers into Saturday with a shot of light showers tomorrow night. High pressure sets up slightly for Super Bowl Sunday and we'll be back to the low 70's at the beaches through Tuesday. After that, we get more seasonal cool weather and a little more clouds towards the 2nd half of next week- with no major storms on the horizon.

And if you're wondering about El Nino, the latest NOAA forecast has a 50-60% chance of it showing up before the end of winter. Long story short- we'll have above average water temps it looks like (check out the map above)- but no deadly storms or 100' surf.

BEST BET:
Wednesday should be fun with new fun NW and nice weather or next weekend with the possibility of NW/SW combo swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Yippee! We got the record! The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2014 was Earth's warmest year on record AS WELL AS December 2014 was record warmth and our global oceans also had record warmth! Party at my house! We did it!

Wait- what? That’s not a good thing?! Depends how you look at it. Whether you believe in Global Warming or believe it’s just a cycle we’re in (and in 10,000 years we’ll be back to normal), the data regardless still shows it was warm last year. Warmest ever in fact. The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2014 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880. The December combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was also the highest on record. Here’s some stats for 2014 overall and just the month of December:

Global highlights for the calendar year 2014:
•During 2014, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.24°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 135 years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F
•Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean.
2014 Temperature Outcome Scenarios
•During 2014, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.80°F above the 20th century average. This was the fourth highest among all years in the 1880–2014 record.
•During 2014, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.03°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.09°F.
•What’s interesting is that will all this warmth, snow seems to be staying put. According to data from NOAA, the average annual Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during 2014 was 24.95 million square miles, and near the middle of the historical record. The first half of 2014 saw generally below-normal snow cover extent, with above-average coverage later in the year. As far as the polar ice caps melting, it gets odder- the average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was 10.99 million square miles, the sixth smallest annual value of the 36-year period of record. But… the annual Antarctic sea ice extent was record large for the second consecutive year, at 13.08 million square miles. It almost seems like the Arctic is losing ice and the Antarctic is taking it!

Global highlights: December 2014
•During December, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.39°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest for December in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous record of 2006 by 0.04°F.
•During December, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.45°F above the 20th century average. This was the third highest for December in the 1880–2014 record.
•During December, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.99°F above the 20th century average. This was also the third highest for December in the 1880–2014 record.
•The average Arctic sea ice extent for December was 210,000 square miles (4.1 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the ninth smallest December extent since records began in 1979.
•Antarctic sea ice during December was 430,000 square miles (9.9 percent) above the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth largest December Antarctic sea ice extent on record.
•According to data from NOAA, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during December was 130,000 square miles below the 1981-2010. This was the 20th smallest December Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in the 49-year period of record.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This wave is way gnarlier than it looks. The current coming off that point is like swimming against the Amazon. And the locals? Like Seaside Oregon, the Wolfpak, and Lunada Bay rolled into one. And don't even get me started on that attack sheep protecting the spot.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Your Fearless Leader
Been Letting Air Out Of Footballs
Split The Peak With Dorian At Jaws

THE Surf Report- Early Edition (Aren't They All?)

The stars are aligning. Jinx!

SURF:

Had a fun week of surf and the weather cooperated too. And if that wasn't good enough- this weekend will be better. Unless of course you're superstitious then I just jinxed it.

As you probably heard by now, we had a solid storm between Japan and Hawaii a few days ago and it's headed our way. Now ideally it would have been great to have the storm hold together and come steam rolling through here but instead our high pressure blocked it before it got too close so we'll have long period inconsistent surf. Look for tomorrow to start off on the small side- especially with the mid-morning high tide- but by sundown we should see some shoulder high waves. Saturday the swell will peak with sets a couple feet overhead and close to double overhead at the best SD spots. On Sunday it stays solid with overhead sets here and 10' sets in SD. Most spots in central OC will be blocked by the offshore islands so it will be considerably smaller.

Water temps still are still a comfortable 61 degrees- and tides the next few days are about 1' at sunrise, up to 4.5' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

If you're still hungry for surf after gorging on plenty of waves this weekend, we've got another NW lined up for Tuesday. Not as big as the weekend swell but still head high sets in north county SD and slightly overhead in SD.

On it's heels is a couple storms on the forecast charts- one off Japan this weekend and one off Antarctica towards the end of the month. If they hold, we should get head high NW towards next weekend and a small SW for the OC in early February. Nothing really big but at least fun waves.

WEATHER:

Interesting week ahead. High pressure is setting up shop today and we'll have warm 'Santa Ana' winds Friday afternoon through Saturday. Look for offshore winds in SD to be around 10-20 mph and in the OC 20-30 mph. Along with the offshore winds, temps at the beaches should be near 80 and sunny. Combine it with a solid NW swell and you've got epic conditions. Prepare to break your step up!

Now we get to the interesting part (if that wasn't unique enough)- we have a low pressure system coming down the Pacific but the high pressure will block it. So it instead will come up underneath us, draw in some tropical moisture, and we'll get showers Monday into Tuesday. A few odd things about this- for one it's coming from the S instead of the N during our winter. Second is the warm tropical air- so no snow in our mountains- but rather showers across southern California and air temps in the mid to high 60's (vs. that really cold storm we had earlier in the month where our air temps were in the high 30's at the beaches and our local hills got a dusting of snow). And lastly- our air will be REALLY dry due to the Santa Ana winds this weekend, so how long will it take us to get our moisture back so the forthcoming storm can generate some rain?! Or will it all evaporate before it hits the ground?! Regardless, we'll get back to normal mid-week then a shot of 'winter' type showers towards next weekend. So in a nutshell- summer like weather this weekend, tropical showers late Monday, and normal winter type showers late in the week. What else could possibly happen?!

BEST BET:
Do you even need to ask?! Saturday with the offshore winds and firing NW swell fool!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Notice the extreme tides earlier in the week? We had high tides at almost 7' and a low tide of around -1.5'. That's a tide swing of over 8'. That's Bay of Fundy tides baby! (Not really- they have a tide swing of 50'). But regardless, we hardly get an 8' difference around here. So what caused the extreme tides? The King Tide to be exact. Let's start off with the basic tides first though. Tides occur due to the gravitational influence of the sun and moon. Although the moon's gravitational force is much smaller than that of the sun, the moon's influence on the tide is much greater due to it's close proximity to the earth. So what makes the King Tides so extreme? First up, the moon's orbit is not a perfect circle around the Earth- it is elliptical. When the moon is closest to the Earth, it's influence on the tides is greatest. The Earth's orbit is also elliptical and so when it is closest to the sun AND the moon is also at it's closest to us, both of these forces make the extreme tides... a.k.a. King Tides. Kind of cool to see the tides so extreme- makes the rocky unsurfable spots rideable at high tide and the mysto reefs come alive at low tide.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Surfed this place back in the 80's with no one out for hundreds of miles. Got chased in by Orcas- only to see Bigfoot tearing through my gear on the beach. Decided to paddle back out and try my luck with the Orcas. For more legends and myths, check out the work of Mark McInnis.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Whiz
Was Mistaken Yesterday For Lorenzo Lamas
Triple Threat: In-line Skates/Razor Scooter/Boogie Boarding

THE Surf Report- Early Edition (again)

Just cruising along.

SURF:
Not to sound ungrateful or anything, but are we ever going to get bombing surf again?! (Stop me if you've heard this rant before). The kind in which you make excuses to not paddle out? The type of waves that Snips would swim to Cotes Bank if he had to. You know, tearing-Ruby's-off-the-end-of-the-Huntington-Beach-pier type surf. It's been fun and all this winter, but sheesh, what's it take to get some 50' surf around here?

Anyway, lots of playful surf all week from the NW with a touch of tiny SW and the weather was darn nice too. We had a reinforcement out of the NW today for head high waves and overhead sets in SD. The swells start to back off tomorrow but we'll still have shoulder high waves here and head high+ waves in SD. The OC will have a little bit of SW/NW so it will at least be rideable up there too. We get another shot of NW on Sunday for more chest to shoulder high waves here and shoulder high+ sets in SD- so all in all we've got a fun weekend of surf lined up.

Water temps still feel great for January- 61 degrees- and tides the next few days are about 5' at sunrise, down to 0' after lunch, and back up to 3' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

More good waves and good weather is on tap next week. We get a little break on Monday then more NW fills in on Tuesday for shoulder high+ waves again. That lasts into Wednesday.

On it's heels, models show a large storm forming off Japan mid-week and if everything holds true, we could get well overhead surf here next weekend and maybe? maybe? double overhead NW in SD?

Charts also show a little storm under New Zealand trying to form in a few days and if that holds also, the OC may get chest high sets towards the end of the month.

WEATHER:

Still no big storms on the horizon but at least the 1/2" of rain last weekend helped out with our drought. Most rain gauges along the coast from LA to SD are reporting 80-120% of normal so I'm not too worried yet about the lack of real storms this January. Look for nice weather again this weekend with temps about 70 during the day and 45 at night. Low clouds start to return towards Sunday and we get a slight cool down mid-week. Models are all over the place with what happens after Wednesday as a storm moves down from the Pacific Northwest. We either could get cold offshore winds or a slight chance of showers- so I'm not making any predictions yet that far out...

BEST BET:
Tomorrow should be fun- as well as Tuesday- but if the charts hold up to their end of the bargain- then next weekend should be time to break the 6'6" out.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So the pseudo El Nino this winter hasn’t really arrived but it sure did make it's presence felt this past summer. As you know, our water temps were about 5 degrees warmer than normal which translated to warmer water at the equator and overall the 2014 season was extremely active in the Eastern Pacific off mainland Mexico and Baja; the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes was well above average. Based on data from 1981-2010 climatology records, the seasonal activity averages for area are:

-15 named storms
-8 hurricanes
-and 3 to 4 major hurricanes.

So why was 2014 above average? Well, take a gander at this…

-20 named storms formed of which (5 more than normal)
-14 became hurricanes (6 more than normal)
-and 8 of those reached major hurricane strength (4 to 5 more than normal)

In addition, one unnamed depression formed during the season. No tropical cyclones formed in the Eastern Pacific in November (fairly late in the season anyway- sheesh- that’s 2 months past the end of summer). However...

Hurricane Vance which formed in late October reached hurricane intensity early in November.  This is unusual since a hurricane forms in November in the area only about once every seven or eight years based on the 30-year (1981-2010) climatology.

In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Eastern Pacific in 2014 was 43 percent above the 1981-2010 average value. This is the seventh highest ACE value in the area since reliable records began in 1971.

Forecast models call for the pseudo El Nino to last into the spring which may help keep our water temps slightly above normal too, so I’m hoping that spills into summer again and we get a slightly elevated hurricane season for the summer of 2015 too…

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever had your friend tell you they got "so deep on a right they were practically going left"? Call BS on them and show 'em this pic. For more great works of art from photographer Stu Gibson, click here.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Wise Beyond My Years
Typed This On A Palm Pilot
Was Elvis' Surfing Double In Blue Hawaii

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Feels like I've been hibernating.

SURF:
Could it have been any worse this past week?!

Lack of storms in the Pacific resulted in one abysmal 7 days around here. We had a little blip on the radar from the SW but only the OC magnets picked up waist high+ waves; so down here in SD it was flat as a pancake.

Luckily for us, buoys in central CA were showing new NW this evening and we'll get chest high swell tomorrow afternoon. By Saturday we'll have head high sets and overhead waves in SD. The swell starts to drop on Sunday but we'll still have fun surf from a smaller reinforcing swell.

Water temps are still nice at 62 degrees and tides the next few days are 3' at sunrise, up to 4.5' before lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a fun weekend of surf, it's pretty small by Tuesday, but we get a smaller boost of chest high NW on Wednesday.

And without skipping a beat, models show another storm forming late next week for more head high+ NW on Friday afternoon into Saturday. Looks like we're back on track for fun waves.

WEATHER:

Our weather has finally warmed up! Just in time for showers this weekend. And still no major storms in sight. Long story short, clouds increase tomorrow with a chance of showers by Saturday. Then high pressure sets up early next week and our nice weather returns. And as soon as I see a real rainmaker on the horizon, you'll be the first to know.

BEST BET:
Saturday or... next Saturday. And a little dash of flavor mid-week.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is the Nation's scorekeeper in terms of addressing severe weather and climate events. As part of it's responsibility of monitoring and assessing the climate, NCDC tracks and evaluates climate events in the U.S. that have the greatest economic impacts. NCDC is frequently called upon to provide summaries of global and U.S. temperature and precipitation trends, extremes, and comparisons in their historical perspective. Below are the weather and climate events that have had the greatest economic impact from 1980 to 2014. The U.S. has sustained 178 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including inflation adjustments for 2014). The total cost of these 178 events since 1980 exceeds $1 trillion.

2014 in Context

In 2014, there were 8 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included a drought event, a flooding event, 5 severe storm events, and a winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 53 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The climate events totaling $1 billion+ in damages were (in no particular order):

-Western Drought, all of 2014
-Rockies/Plains Severe Weather, September 29th to October 2nd.
-Plains Severe Weather, June 3rd to 5th.
-South/Plains Severe Weather, April 2nd to 3rd.
-Rockies/Midwest/Eastern Severe Weather, May 18th to 23rd.
-Michigan/Northeast Flooding, August 11th to 13th
-Midwest/Southeast/Northeast Winter Storm, January 5th to 8th
-Midwest/Southeast/Northeast Tornadoes and Flooding, April 27th to May 1st

The Last 30+ Years

The distribution of damage from U.S. Billion-dollar disaster events across the 1980-2014 period of record is dominated by tropical cyclone losses. From 1980-2014, land falling tropical cyclones have caused the most damage ($539 billion) and also have the highest average event cost ($15.9 billion per event). Drought ($202 billion), severe storms ($145 billion) and inland flooding ($87 billion) have also caused considerable damage based on the list of billion-dollar events. It is of note that severe storms are responsible for the highest number of billion-dollar disaster events (70) yet the average event cost is among the lowest ($2.2 billion) but still substantial. Tropical cyclones and drought represent the second and third most frequent event types (34 and 22), respectively.

2015
So what does 2015 hold in store? Well, if the El Nino ever kicks into full gear, it will ease the burden of the drought, wildfires, and limit East Coast tropical cyclones. But on the flip side, increase the chance of severe storm, winter storm, and flooding damages. So pretty much don't expect a slow down in billion dollar storms this year.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Not the best wave in the world but sure better than it has been around here lately. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
1st In Line
Can't Wait for Spring Break in Cancun!
Packed The Wrong Quiver For Hawaii & Ended Up With A Bag Full Of Arrows

THE Surf Report- Late Edition

I'm bored.

SURF:
No real excitement around here except for a shot of showers on New Year's Eve and some very cold temperatures.

The surf as you know has been flat and it's not getting better this weekend. Along with the super high tides at sunrise, it's flatter than flat for the dawn patrol. Water temps have dropped slightly with the offshore winds and freezing temperatures (literally) but it's still a nice 62 degrees by January standards.

Tides are mega high at sunrise at 6', then dropping like a rock to -1' mid-afternoon, then rising ever so slightly to 0' at sunrise. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
High pressure over the Pacific is forecasted to move closer to our coast and as it does we get a slight increase in NW windswell towards Monday. Nothing much but waist high waves around here and chest high waves in SD.

Models do show a storm brewing off the Aleutians mid-week and we may get some chest high waves in north county SD towards Friday and head high waves in SD. Finally something rideable! And just in time for the weekend.

WEATHER:

Unbelievably cold weather in southern California. And a dusting of snow in the local mountains. Even my 4/3 doesn't feel warm enough when the dawn patrols have 35 degree air temps. Luckily for us high pressure will build slightly early next week and we should warm up a few degrees every day until we hit a high of 75 degrees around Tuesday/Wednesday. Low pressure then moves by to the north the 2nd half of next week and the return of low clouds and temps in the mid-60's are in our forecast. All in all some nice weather and no real storms in sight.

BEST BET:
Wait for it... Friday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you take away the so called El Nino trying to take shape this winter as well remove the freezing temperatures, just what is a normal January around here?! Well January is usually the coldest month of the year in San Diego. It is the only month that temperatures below the freezing point were experienced at the National Weather Service. Only 9 days have recorded low temperatures of 32 degrees or lower since records began in 1872. The lowest temperature recorded was 25 degrees on January 7, 1913. The current monthly averages are 49.0 degrees for minimum temperature, 65.1 degrees for the average maximum temperature, and the mean temperature is 57.1 degrees. Daytime temperature readings often reach 70 degrees and occasionally 80 degrees. The temperature rose to a high of 88 degrees on January 10, 1953. With an average of 7 days with rain, it is the wettest month of the year. The normal total is 1.98 inches, but amounts vary widely from year to year. Monthly totals range from 9.09 inches in 1993 to no rain in several Januarys. Small hail has occurred occasionally. A few snowflakes were observed melting as soon as they reached the ground on January 10, 1949, which is the only day that snow has ever been recorded.  Strong winds sometimes accompany the rains and have reached speeds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 to 45 mph. The highest wind gust ever recorded in January was 64 mph in 1988. The sun shines 72 percent of the time. The average month has 12 clear days, 8 partly cloudy days, and 11 cloudy days.  Heavy fog has overspread the city on an average of 3 days each January, but it is highly variable with some Januarys having had as high as 10 days of  heavy fog. The relative humidity is quite low with averages of 70% in early morning, 55% around noon, and 55% in late afternoon.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever heard of the spot called 'Rights and Lefts' in Central California? Or how about that wave in the Endless Summer called 'Ins and Outs'. Well I guess they got married a few years ago and had a kid. Meet... I don't what the heck this thing is called. Only a face a mother could love. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Headliner
Already Given Up On My Resolutions
Surfed Chest High Waves Today- At The Mandalay Bay Wave Pool