Thursday, January 29, 2015

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Time to get back to basics.

SURF:
Great weather and surf last weekend. A little lined up but the best reefs and points were going off. If you didn't mind 100 or so of your closest friends sharing a wave or two.
We then got a little boost out of the NW again on Tuesday with less then stellar conditions but still manageable. Tonight there's leftover NW in the water with a touch of tiny SW for chest high sets. Tomorrow looks to be a tad smaller with waist high+ waves in town with an occasional chest high wave in SD. The clouds above won't cooperate either and we'll have a light texture on the water from SW winds.
Saturday the weak storm starts to exit the region and we get a mix of NW windswell/groundswell for shoulder high sets and possibly moderate NW winds. Nothing like last weekend but you will find a wave or two to surf. The NW holds on Sunday and the weather cleans up slightly. 
Water temps still are still a comfortable 61 degrees- and tides the next few days are starting to vary greatly again: 5.5' at sunrise, down to -0.5' after lunch, and up to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Nothing really exciting on the horizon. Monday is pretty meager and Tuesday morning starts out the same- then we get a little bump out of the NW again for shoulder high sets. Weather should be nice too. That holds into Wednesday. Thursday drops into the waist-chest high range then Saturday we get another shot of NW- hopefully head high if the models cooperate. We also may get a chest high SW which would make the beach breaks tons of fun. Further out, things go quiet in the north Pacific for a few days but charts show a good SW trying to take shape and shoot us some head high+ swell towards the weekend of the 13th. It's still pretty early for southern hemisphere swell season- so I'll take it with a grain of salt- but exciting nonetheless.

WEATHER:

The 'Santa Anas' then 'tropical showers' last week are gone, and now we're left with low clouds and cool temps. That lingers into Saturday with a shot of light showers tomorrow night. High pressure sets up slightly for Super Bowl Sunday and we'll be back to the low 70's at the beaches through Tuesday. After that, we get more seasonal cool weather and a little more clouds towards the 2nd half of next week- with no major storms on the horizon.
And if you're wondering about El Nino, the latest NOAA forecast has a 50-60% chance of it showing up before the end of winter. Long story short- we'll have above average water temps it looks like (check out the map above)- but no deadly storms or 100' surf.

BEST BET:
Wednesday should be fun with new fun NW and nice weather or next weekend with the possibility of NW/SW combo swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Yippee! We got the record! The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2014 was Earth's warmest year on record AS WELL AS December 2014 was record warmth and our global oceans also had record warmth! Party at my house! We did it!

Wait- what? That’s not a good thing?! Depends how you look at it. Whether you believe in Global Warming or believe it’s just a cycle we’re in (and in 10,000 years we’ll be back to normal), the data regardless still shows it was warm last year. Warmest ever in fact. The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2014 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880. The December combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was also the highest on record. Here’s some stats for 2014 overall and just the month of December:

Global highlights for the calendar year 2014:
•During 2014, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.24°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 135 years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F
•Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean.
2014 Temperature Outcome Scenarios
•During 2014, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.80°F above the 20th century average. This was the fourth highest among all years in the 1880–2014 record.
•During 2014, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.03°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.09°F.
•What’s interesting is that will all this warmth, snow seems to be staying put. According to data from NOAA, the average annual Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during 2014 was 24.95 million square miles, and near the middle of the historical record. The first half of 2014 saw generally below-normal snow cover extent, with above-average coverage later in the year. As far as the polar ice caps melting, it gets odder- the average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was 10.99 million square miles, the sixth smallest annual value of the 36-year period of record. But… the annual Antarctic sea ice extent was record large for the second consecutive year, at 13.08 million square miles. It almost seems like the Arctic is losing ice and the Antarctic is taking it!

Global highlights: December 2014
•During December, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.39°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest for December in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous record of 2006 by 0.04°F.
•During December, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.45°F above the 20th century average. This was the third highest for December in the 1880–2014 record.
•During December, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.99°F above the 20th century average. This was also the third highest for December in the 1880–2014 record.
•The average Arctic sea ice extent for December was 210,000 square miles (4.1 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the ninth smallest December extent since records began in 1979.
•Antarctic sea ice during December was 430,000 square miles (9.9 percent) above the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth largest December Antarctic sea ice extent on record.
•According to data from NOAA, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during December was 130,000 square miles below the 1981-2010. This was the 20th smallest December Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in the 49-year period of record.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This wave is way gnarlier than it looks. The current coming off that point is like swimming against the Amazon. And the locals? Like Seaside Oregon, the Wolfpak, and Lunada Bay rolled into one. And don't even get me started on that attack sheep protecting the spot.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Your Fearless Leader
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