THE Surf Report- Early Edition (again)

Just cruising along.

SURF:
Not to sound ungrateful or anything, but are we ever going to get bombing surf again?! (Stop me if you've heard this rant before). The kind in which you make excuses to not paddle out? The type of waves that Snips would swim to Cotes Bank if he had to. You know, tearing-Ruby's-off-the-end-of-the-Huntington-Beach-pier type surf. It's been fun and all this winter, but sheesh, what's it take to get some 50' surf around here?

Anyway, lots of playful surf all week from the NW with a touch of tiny SW and the weather was darn nice too. We had a reinforcement out of the NW today for head high waves and overhead sets in SD. The swells start to back off tomorrow but we'll still have shoulder high waves here and head high+ waves in SD. The OC will have a little bit of SW/NW so it will at least be rideable up there too. We get another shot of NW on Sunday for more chest to shoulder high waves here and shoulder high+ sets in SD- so all in all we've got a fun weekend of surf lined up.

Water temps still feel great for January- 61 degrees- and tides the next few days are about 5' at sunrise, down to 0' after lunch, and back up to 3' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

More good waves and good weather is on tap next week. We get a little break on Monday then more NW fills in on Tuesday for shoulder high+ waves again. That lasts into Wednesday.

On it's heels, models show a large storm forming off Japan mid-week and if everything holds true, we could get well overhead surf here next weekend and maybe? maybe? double overhead NW in SD?

Charts also show a little storm under New Zealand trying to form in a few days and if that holds also, the OC may get chest high sets towards the end of the month.

WEATHER:

Still no big storms on the horizon but at least the 1/2" of rain last weekend helped out with our drought. Most rain gauges along the coast from LA to SD are reporting 80-120% of normal so I'm not too worried yet about the lack of real storms this January. Look for nice weather again this weekend with temps about 70 during the day and 45 at night. Low clouds start to return towards Sunday and we get a slight cool down mid-week. Models are all over the place with what happens after Wednesday as a storm moves down from the Pacific Northwest. We either could get cold offshore winds or a slight chance of showers- so I'm not making any predictions yet that far out...

BEST BET:
Tomorrow should be fun- as well as Tuesday- but if the charts hold up to their end of the bargain- then next weekend should be time to break the 6'6" out.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So the pseudo El Nino this winter hasn’t really arrived but it sure did make it's presence felt this past summer. As you know, our water temps were about 5 degrees warmer than normal which translated to warmer water at the equator and overall the 2014 season was extremely active in the Eastern Pacific off mainland Mexico and Baja; the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes was well above average. Based on data from 1981-2010 climatology records, the seasonal activity averages for area are:

-15 named storms
-8 hurricanes
-and 3 to 4 major hurricanes.

So why was 2014 above average? Well, take a gander at this…

-20 named storms formed of which (5 more than normal)
-14 became hurricanes (6 more than normal)
-and 8 of those reached major hurricane strength (4 to 5 more than normal)

In addition, one unnamed depression formed during the season. No tropical cyclones formed in the Eastern Pacific in November (fairly late in the season anyway- sheesh- that’s 2 months past the end of summer). However...

Hurricane Vance which formed in late October reached hurricane intensity early in November.  This is unusual since a hurricane forms in November in the area only about once every seven or eight years based on the 30-year (1981-2010) climatology.

In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Eastern Pacific in 2014 was 43 percent above the 1981-2010 average value. This is the seventh highest ACE value in the area since reliable records began in 1971.

Forecast models call for the pseudo El Nino to last into the spring which may help keep our water temps slightly above normal too, so I’m hoping that spills into summer again and we get a slightly elevated hurricane season for the summer of 2015 too…

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever had your friend tell you they got "so deep on a right they were practically going left"? Call BS on them and show 'em this pic. For more great works of art from photographer Stu Gibson, click here.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Wise Beyond My Years
Typed This On A Palm Pilot
Was Elvis' Surfing Double In Blue Hawaii