THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I'm ready whenever you are.

SURF:

Had a little NW/SW last weekend, nothing much mid-week, then a little boost from the S/NW on Wednesday that held up today for some chest high waves. For our upcoming weekend- not so much. Just leftover waist high waves from the S/NW. Stop me if you've heard this before, but a lack of storms means a lack of surf. So until then, we wait. The water though is fantastic- 73-75 degrees. And our weather has finally mellowed out.

Tides next few days are 2' at sunrise, up to 4.5' mid-afternoon, and back down to 2' at sunset. Even our tides are boring this weekend.

FORECAST:

Now that the bad news is out of the way, let's get to the good news. Well, actually some more bad news first. No real surf to start the work week but... a storm is organizing in the southern hemisphere tonight- just due S of us- and we should get some shoulder high surf starting late on Thursday the 27th and peaking on the 28th. Models also show a little NW windswell too. Finally some good surf if the models hold up.

After that we have all kinds of crazy stuff on the forecast charts. First up is that gnarly super Typhoon Astani off Japan. It's forecasted to go extra tropical this weekend (i.e. barrel through the cold Bering Sea) and may actually send us some long period inconsistent chest high W swell towards the 1st of September. There's also a couple tropical storms forecasted to develop around the same time too off Hawaii and Baja towards the end of the month. The odd thing about the Hawaiian storm is that models also show it going extra tropical like Astani and it may curve back our way towards the west coast. But that's not the real story. The real story is that the southern hemisphere may come roaring back to life next week- and in a big way. Models have a bomb of storm developing that may send us 8'+ SW swell around September 4th. It's still a long way off, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Typical summer weather pattern is in store this weekend: Low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings and sunny skies at the beaches in the afternoon with temps in the mid-70's. High pressure builds slightly late this weekend and we get a little less clouds at the beach. Waaaaaay better than that annoying fog at the coast last Sunday that didn't burn off until 3pm. Regardless, enjoy it now before the heavens open up this winter and El Nino makes it dump rain around here for 5 months straight.
 
BEST BET:
In the near term- next Friday with a fun SW/NW combo. Or if you can wait that long- early September with a large SW swell I'm betting the house on.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported this week that July 2015 was the warmest month EVER recorded for the globe. Not San Diego. Not California. Not North America. But THE GLOBE. Mother Earth. a.k.a EVERYWHERE (except for 6 random spots here and there but the other 7,453,290,112,339,854 spots around the world were the warmest ever). How warm? Here’s what NOAA is reporting:

• The July average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.46°F (0.81°C) above the 20th century average. As July is climatologically the warmest month for the year, this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880–2015 record, at 61.86°F (16.61°C), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.14°F (0.08°C).
• Separately, the July globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.73°F (0.96°C) above the 20th century average. This was the sixth highest for July in the 1880–2015 record.
• The July globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.35°F (0.75°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2014 by 0.13°F (0.07°C). The global value was driven by record warmth across large expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
• The average Arctic sea ice extent for July was 350,000 square miles (9.5 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the eighth smallest July extent since records began in 1979 and largest since 2009, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA.
• Antarctic sea ice during July was 240,000 square miles (3.8 percent) above the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth largest July Antarctic sea ice extent on record and 140,000 square miles smaller than the record-large July extent of 2014. (This obviously is one of the 6 spots on earth that are still cooler than average…)

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–July 2015)
• The year-to-date temperature combined across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.53°F (0.85°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January–July in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.16°F (0.09°C).
• The year-to-date globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.41°F (1.34°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January–July in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.27°F (0.15°C).
• The year-to-date globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.21°F (0.67°C) above the 20th century average. This was also the highest for January–July in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.11°F (0.06°C). Every major ocean basin observed record warmth in some areas.

So in case this you’ve been paranoid lately about this whole drought thing AND the upcoming El Nino this winter, Global Warming just wanted to give you a little reminder he’s still here. Thanks.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

You know what annoys me? Surfing crowded Lowers and guys don't split the peak and waves go unridden. So I'm starting a new surfing group called 'Sharing is Caring' and everyone in the group must split the peak. In the case of the Pic of the Week; I go right, you go left. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Wise Man
People Think I'm In My Late 20's
Have 42 Unpaid Blackball Tickets