THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Come up for air then get back in there!

SURF:

I don't want to sound like an old man, but this is the most consistent surf I can remember since... well since I can't remember. I'm almost hoping for rain this weekend so I can take a breather. And as luck would have it, stormy conditions are coming. But more on that in a minute.

First up is a building WNW swell today that gave us fun head high waves and overhead waves are coming tomorrow. That will last into Saturday morning with sets 10'+ in SD. By Saturday afternoon the winds pick up from the S as a new storm moves in. This one looks pretty solid actually- up to 3/4" of rain, lots of strong winds, and the water will be dirty by Sunday morning. Get it while you can.

Water temps are a pleasant 61 degrees and tides this weekend are pretty mellow: about 2' at sunrise, up to 3.5' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. And the days are getting longer if you've noticed; sun comes up at 6:30 AM (which means you can get in the water close to 6 AM on a cloudless morning) and sets at 5:30 PM (which means you can stay in the water until close to 6 PM). That's almost 12 straight hours of sheer bliss people.

FORECAST:
Once the storm blows through late Sunday, we're left with filthy water on Monday.

And in it's wake, models are showing an unusually large NW windswell filling in. Large meaning 15'. Not sure about that, but I think it's going to be big and out of control regardless. After that we finally get a break around here with mellow conditions- waves and weather. Just for a few days though.

Models show another WNW arriving next Friday more more head high waves. Stoke.

WEATHER:

This El Nino has been feast or famine. Lots of rain at the beginning of January and a storm this weekend to close out the month. Tomorrow and Saturday morning should be nice then the winds pick up strongly from the S mid-day on Saturday. By Saturday night it's howling, dumping, and cold. Sunday is more of the same. That cleans up by Monday and by mid-week we have nice weather again with temps in the mid-60's. Feast or famine I tell ya. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 
 
BEST BET:
Tomorrow or Saturday morning is the call as the swell peaks and we have clean conditions. Or Monday with large victory at sea conditions if you're Captain Ahab.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Is it hot in here or is it just me? It's hot in here you say? Whew! Thought it was me. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their year end report on the earth's climate for 2015- and yup, you guessed it, 2015 is Earth's warmest year by the widest margin on record. Congratulations earthlings! NOAA summed it up like this:

The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2015 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880. During the final month, the December combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was the highest on record for any month in the 136-year record.

Global highlights: Calendar Year 2015

During 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.62°F (0.90°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 136 years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.29°F (0.16°C) and marking the fourth time a global temperature record has been set this century. This is also the largest margin by which the annual global temperature record has been broken. Ten months had record high temperatures for their respective months during the year. The five highest monthly departures from average for any month on record all occurred during 2015.

Record warmth was broadly spread around the world, including Central America, the northern half of South America, parts of northern, southern, and eastern Europe stretching into western Asia, a large section of east central Siberia, regions of eastern and southern Africa, large parts of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific, a large swath of the western North Atlantic, most of the Indian Ocean, and parts of the Arctic Ocean.

During 2015, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.39°F (1.33°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.45°F (0.25°C). This is the largest margin by which the annual global land temperature has been broken.

During 2015, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.33°F (0.74°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of last year by 0.20°F (0.11°C).

Looking above Earth's surface at certain layers of the atmosphere, several different analyses examined NOAA satellite-based data records for the lower and middle troposphere and the lower stratosphere.

-The 2015 temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest five miles of the atmosphere) was third highest in the 1979-2015 record, at 0.65°F (0.36°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). It was also third highest on record, at 0.47°F (0.26°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.

-The 2015 temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly two miles to six miles above the surface) was third highest in the 1979–2015 record, at 0.49°F (0.27°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by UAH, and fourth highest on record, at 0.40°F (0.22°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by RSS. A routine University of Washington post-analysis found the UAH and RSS values to be 0.65°F (0.36°C) and 0.54°F (0.30°C), respectively, above the 1981–2010 average, both ranking third highest. Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.

-An independent assessment of the mid-troposphere, derived from weather balloons, found the mid-troposphere departure to be 0.92°F (0.51°C) above the 1981–2010 average, the highest in the 58-year period of record. Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.

-The temperature for the lower stratosphere (roughly 10 miles to 13 miles above the surface) was 13th lowest in the 1979–2015 record, at 0.56°F (0.31°C) below the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by UAH, and 14th lowest on record, at 0.40°F (0.22°C) below the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by RSS. The stratospheric temperature is decreasing on average while the lower and middle troposphere temperatures are increasing on average, consistent with expectations in a greenhouse-warmed world.

According to data from NOAA analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average annual Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during 2015 was 9.5 million square miles. This was the 11th smallest annual snow cover extent since records began in 1968 and smallest since 2008. The first half of 2015 saw generally below-normal snow cover extent, with above-average coverage later in the year.

Recent polar sea ice extent trends continued in 2015. The average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was 4.25 million square miles, the sixth smallest annual value of the 37-year period of record. The annual Antarctic sea ice extent on the otherhand was the third largest on record, at 4.92 million square miles, behind 2013 and 2014. (Guess I'm spending my winter break snowboarding at the bottom of the earth).

So there you have it: We're all melting. It wasn't your imagination after all!

BEST OF THE BLOG:

I'm a big fan of 'staycations'- you know- a vacation near home. Either Palm Springs (especially when Quiksilver builds their surf resort out there), or Catalina (if they would just re-open the Casino though), and even good ol' North County (shhhh- don't tell the Zonies). But a new spot I'm a big fan of for staycations is 'The Holidays'. All the fun of camping without the hassles of camping. Plus you get to surf Trestles to boot. Get the scoop here!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I'd totally paddle out but I'm afraid I'd snap my fins on the reef. Guess I'll have to wait for the tide to come in.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Idle Idol
Wrote That Old Children's Tale From The Sea
Coulda Shoulda Turned Pro

North County New Business News: Spending The Holidays In San Clemente

I'm a big fan of staycations. Not that I have anything against vacations in Cabo, Hawaii, France and the such, but we live in an amazing place here in southern California- why would you want to go anywhere else?! I also don't have $10k lying around the house for a trip to Tavarua but that's another story.

The point is, there's lots of amazing places within a short drive of north county San Diego to recharge your batteries. Like a new spot I found- The Holidays Camp Community in San Clemente. Looking to get away from it all? Check. Only have a couple days to spare? Check. Don't want to take a 2nd out on your mortgage to finance your vacation? Check. And get some surf while you're at it? Check.

'Camping' you say? Already done that? Not like this. North County San Diego residents Andy Jones and Kellen Ausdal have made it a hassle free experience called 'The Holidays'. Basically I see there's three ways to camp:

1. Sleep on the ground in a tent that's as flimsy as a wet noodle (and will be wet when it rains)
2. Or the trendy 'Glamping' in which you take a 5 star hotel room and stick it outside. Which really isn't 'roughing it' and you've now just spent $500 a night to sleep with bugs.
3. Or get your own RV/camper which means you just spent a ton of money you didn't have, the neighbors are thrilled that it's parked in front of your house 51 weeks out of the year, and driving it is a nightmare at: (insert your favorite location):

• winding sketchy icy mountain roads
• narrow crowded streets at the beach with no parking and I swear you just sideswiped 3 cars
• 110 degree desert heat with windy blowing dust that's doing it's darnedest to push your trailer off the road

That's where The Holidays comes in. Andy and Kellen basically wrote a list of pros and cons for camping and just kept the pros. They bought 4 vintage trailers, added amenities, made them modern, and put them permanently at San Clemente State Beach. You just show up and have a good time. All you need to do is bring the groceries. Actually- scratch that- they can do that for you too if you'd like. And when your done, you just leave the trailer, hop in our car, and head back to your thrilling 9-5 job (sorry).

Sounds easy, huh? A little too easy? That's because it is. The Holidays has thought of everything. Games for the kids (board games, bocce ball, bean bag toss, scavenger hunt, etc. etc. etc.). Not into games? No worries, the campsite is on the bluff above San Clemente State Beach. So relax on the sand all day or surf State Beach, Riviera, T-Street, or Trestles. And the trailers have everything you need:

• Sleeping for 5 (full bed, 2 twin beds, and overhead bunk for a little grom)
• heater
• luggage storage
• 3 burner stove
• refrigerator
• sink
• couch
• USB chargers
• dinette
• pots, pans, bowls, plates, cups, utensils, soap, paper towels
• beach towels and bath towels
• bedding/linens
• coffee! 
• soap/shampoo

As far as showers and restrooms go, they're about 10' away from The Holidays campsite and clean! (Which I'm assuming is due to the fact they're also next to the Park Ranger's permanent campsite and not open to the general public).

What's unique about the campsite is that The Holidays has 4 permanent spots and the trailers all form a circle around a communal fire pit. It's a great way to bring everyone together. Outside your trailer you have your own teak chairs, large mat to spread out on, picnic bench with veranda, and outdoor grill. And did I mention they have bluetooth speakers inside AND outside the trailers so all you Beliebers can get your groove on. Not that I would know. 

So why the ringing endorsement? I just spent the weekend there. And you need to give credit where credit is due; nice accommodations, all the amenities, great setting, and an all around good time for the family. And it doesn't hurt that you can run to Trestles to rinse off that desk job. So if you're looking to take a breather soon and have limited time/budget, you need The Holidays for your next holiday. Give Andy and Kellen a shout at theholidaysca@gmail.com or (760) 707-9141 or click here.

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Like a conveyor belt.

SURF:

Or like death and taxes! Wait- that sounds like a bad thing. Regardless, the surf has been a non-stop sure thing. One heck of an El Nino so far; only a few days of stormy weather and lots of solid surf. Still no sign of that 25'+ La Jolla Cove swell though, but I'm happy.

Tomorrow morning starts off small with just chest high sets from the NW and a touch of smaller SW, but then by afternoon- back to solid surf again. Yawn. Not the biggest swell, but we'll have sets a few feet overhead in north county SD and 10' sets in SD. That lasts into Saturday morning and then we get a second boost late Saturday that lasts into Sunday. Bummer (that's a hint of sarcasm).

As far as the tides go this weekend, we've got a high of 6.5' after sunrise, drops like a rock to -1.0' mid-afternoon, and up slightly to 1.0' at sunset. And water temps are a pleasant 60 degrees.

FORECAST:

Are you the Six Million Dollar Man? (God bless Lee Majors). You're going to need to have bionic powers after next week's surf. We have a slight break Monday/Tuesday with just leftover chest high+ NW then a fun head high NW shows up on Wednesday. That's replaced on Thursday with another overhead NW with 10' sets in SD. (I don't know what I did to deserve this).

And then (drum roll please)... models show one of the biggest- if not the biggest swell of the season showing next Friday. If everything holds true, we'll have 12'+ surf here in town and triple overhead+ sets at the best spots in SD. Hopefully the rain holds off (more on that below).

WEATHER:

Still no major storms in our vicinity for the near future but we do have showers coming late tomorrow and into Saturday. Maybe 0.10" in total at the coast and 0.25" in the valleys but hey- it gives me something to talk about. After that we have normal weather next week. Models hint though at high pressure breaking down next weekend with more significant precipitation happening. Maybe. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Thursday is the call- solid swell and clean conditions. Saturday will have lots of swell but the problem is maybe some sickness from a weak cold front. Or that bomb next weekend if the rain behaves. Heck- I'm confused- it's all good.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Well wasn’t El Nino fun. Ahhhh, good times. Thanks for coming to the party ol’ buddy. See you in 2034.

Sure seems that way doesn’t it? We heard the hype (my fault) through all of 2014 and 2015 and nothing happened. The ‘experts’ said to wait patiently, it was coming. Then WHAM! We got walloped at the beginning of January. So the experts looked like they were right. But now- NOTHING- Northern California seems to be having all the fun. What the heck?! The LA Times wrote an article a few days ago that shed light on the subject. Looks like we’re still waiting…

“When the first hints of El Niño developed last year, experts believed that the brunt of the rain would occur in Southern California rather than Northern California. So far this season, the opposite has happened. Since Oct. 1, San Francisco was at 100% of average rainfall as of Monday; Eureka at 142% and Fresno, 152%. Yet Los Angeles was only at 64% of average.

What gives?

The answer is that much of the rain Northern California has received in recent months is not significantly related to El Niño. Most of that precipitation — including this week's storms hitting San Francisco — is coming from the typical winter weather pattern in California: cold storms from the northern Pacific Ocean, coming northwest of the state. Northern California — like the rest of the state — saw less rain during four years of drought. But this season is shaping up to be a wet year in the north, bringing more rain and snow than the region has seen in several years. The only El Niño-driven storms that have hit California arrived in the first week of January and then ended, said NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert. "That was a trailer for the movie," Patzert said.

Unlike the typical winter storm that hits California from the northern Pacific Ocean, El Niño-influenced storms come from the west, just north of Hawaii, Patzert said. They can wreak havoc on California because El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by warm ocean water west of Peru that can cause changes in the atmosphere, can cause a persistent series of subtropical storms to hit the state, one after another. One reason why storms haven't been able to get through to Southern California in recent weeks is an area of high pressure southwest of the state that has been unusually persistent, Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain said.

Although the forecast does not show any signs of major storms in the next week in the Southland, there appears to be a window of opportunity for significant precipitation to return shortly after that, Swain said. Computer models suggest that there will be a burst of energy in the jet stream at the end of the month. The pattern suggests that "if there are any storms in the pipeline at the end of January, they will be able to both have a trajectory that might bring them into Southern California and it might allow them to maintain their strength," Swain said.

It's not the intensity of the storms that's the problem — it's the conveyor belt of wet systems that relentlessly douse the state, which eventually can cause hillsides to saturate and mud to start flowing. For instance, none of the storms that hit Los Angeles in February 1998 were individually spectacular, Patzert said, but combined, they dumped 14 inches of rain on the city — almost a year's worth.

El Niño influences this weather pattern because it can cause a subtropical jet stream — a narrow band of strong winds in the atmosphere that pushes storms west to east — to move from the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America to Southern California, Patzert said. In the strongest El Niño years, the jet stream can even marshal storms to cover Northern California. Storms during the strongest El Niños on record doused the entire state, bringing double the rainfall in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 to both northern and southern California and double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada.

Experts say it's possible that the classic El Niño-influenced pattern could emerge by late January or early February. That would put it more in line with how the most punishing series of storms arrived in February 1998 and March of 1983. "As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."

About 1,000 to 2,000 miles south of California, El Niño, the immense pool of warm water 2 1/2 times the size of the continental United States fueling atmospheric disturbances worldwide, is gathering strength again in the Pacific Ocean, Patzert said, after topping out in temperature in November. Patzert said there was yet again another weakening of the so-called trade winds in the central Pacific Ocean, which will allow the ocean west of Peru to heat up again, further fueling El Niño. "This thing is getting ready to have a second peak," Patzert said. "I think El Niño will live up to its hype, but you have to be patient."

El Niño has already caused significant changes in weather across the world. The weather phenomenon was associated with the heavy rains, flooding and tornadoes in the American South around Christmas, and blamed for worsening drought over swaths of Southeast Asia, Central America and eastern Africa. El Niño-related rains have also brought floods to parts of northern Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, Patzert said. He expects California's drought to continue into a fifth year even after this El Niño winter, saying that these events come only every 15 to 20 years, providing just 7% of our water over a generation. "In February and March, we might be talking about mudslides. But in July or August, we're going to be talking about the drought again," Patzert said.

The wet winter in Northern California — especially the snow — is helping California's drought woes because that region produces a good deal of the state's water. Northern California has seen a series of storms for the last week; San Francisco had faced six consecutive days of rain by Monday, and was expected to see another storm Tuesday. Since Wednesday, San Francisco has seen more than 2 inches of rain and Squaw Valley ski resort near Lake Tahoe has seen more than 30 inches of fresh snow. "It's been a fantastic snow season," said Michael Radlick, spokesman for the ski resort, which has seen more than 20 feet of snow this season. "Traffic is high and folks on the mountain are stoked." But the rain has started to cause rock slides, including one Monday morning in Niles Canyon in Fremont and another on Friday on California 1 south of Big Sur. "It's been wave after wave with periods of drying in between," said National Weather Service forecaster Diana Henderson. "Now that the ground is saturated, we're starting to see debris flows here and there."

So here we wait. Patiently.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Firing. (Insert sound of me dropping the mic).

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Insured My Good Looks
LA Charger Season Ticket Holder
World Record Holder Deepest Duck Dive: 14 Feet

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

In like a lion and out like a lamb.

SURF:
Now that the storms are gone, all that is left is solid surf. Been darn good around here lately.

Big surf on Tuesday has been slowly winding down all week but we still had chest high+ waves today. Tomorrow drops slightly to the waist to chest high range and by Saturday it's waist high+.

Don't worry though, the El Nino engine is still cranking out storms and we've got a solid WNW swell building all day on Sunday. By the afternoon we're back to 8'+ surf around here and 10'+ in SD. And no rain/wind to deal with.

As far as the tides go this weekend, we've got a 2' tide at sunrise, up to 4' after lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. And the ol' water temps are in the high 50's.

FORECAST:
That big WNW swell tops out late Sunday but Monday morning is still overhead. That same storm is forecasted to shoot out another pulse and we get more 8'+ waves Monday afternoon.

We also had a late season storm off Antarctica last week that sent fun chest high SW surf our way- but it's going to be overridden by that solid WNW. Places in the OC that are shadowed by the Channel Islands though from the WNW may see some fun waves from the SW. Tuesday is fun with leftover WNW head high+ waves- as well as that smaller SW (AND a chance of showers- more on that below) and then there's not much late in the week.

Charts show another storm in the Pacific brewing mid-week and we should get more head high+ WNW waves next weekend. And after that, more WNW around the end of the month. I just said a lot. Let me know if you need me to repeat it.

WEATHER:

Starting to feel like winter around here; 70 degree weather, sunny skies with a few high clouds, and the beaches are packed. What the heck happened to El Nino?! We've got great weather on tap this weekend with no real changes in store. Models show a little weak cold front coming down late Tuesday that may generate showers but nothing like the big storms of last week. After that, high pressure sets up again and we've got great weather next weekend. I'm sure El Nino will make a return this winter, just not in the near future. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 
 
BEST BET:
Solid swell late Sunday/early Monday and solid weather. Where do I sign up?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Boy was it a busy year for extreme sports in 2015. From Brad Dooley hitting 54’ on the mega ramp on his Razor scooter,  to Hans Grubeman breaking the world speed record of 38 mph on rollerblades, to Darren McFarden jumping 24 stairs on his hoverboard,  it felt like the sky’s the limit. Our extreme weather in 2015 was also radical. From record warmth, to billion dollar disasters, to hurricanes out of control; Hans Grubeman has nuthin’ on Mother Nature. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has wrapped everything up for 2015 in tidy package below:

Record December boosted 2015 to 2nd warmest year for Contiguous US:

The 2015 annual average U.S. temperature was 54.4°F, 2.4°F above the 20th century average, the second warmest year on record. Only 2012 was warmer for the U.S. with an average temperature of 55.3°F. This is the 19th consecutive year the annual average temperature exceeded the 20th century average. The first part of the year was marked by extreme warmth in the West and cold in the East, but by the end of 2015, record warmth spanned the East with near-average temperatures across the West. This temperature pattern resulted in every state having an above-average annual temperature. The average contiguous U.S. precipitation was 34.47 inches, 4.53 inches above average, and ranked as the third wettest year in the 121-year period of record. Only 1973 and 1983 were wetter. The central and southeastern U.S. was much wetter than average, while parts of the West and Northeast were drier than average. The national drought footprint shrank about 10 percent during the course of the year.

Ten Weather, Climate Disasters Exceeding $1 Billion Impacted The Nation:

In 2015, there were 10 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included a drought event, 2 flooding events, 5 severe storm events, a wildfire event, and a winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 155 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2015 annual average is 5.2 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2011–2015) is 10.8 events (CPI-adjusted). The U.S. has sustained 188 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2015). The total cost of these 188 events exceeds $1 trillion. Additionally, the U.S. experienced five distinct disaster event types in 2015. It is more common to observe three or four disaster event types in a given year. Five or more disaster event types exceeding $1 billion in the same year occurs less frequently (i.e., 2015, 2011, 2008, 1998, 1994 and 1989).

2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Was On Overdrive:

The 2015 East Pacific hurricane season had 18 named storms, including 13 hurricanes, nine of which became major. The 1981-2010 average number of named storms in the East Pacific is 16.5, with 8.9 hurricanes, and 4.3 major hurricanes. This is the first year since reliable record keeping began in 1971 that the eastern Pacific saw nine major hurricanes. The Central Pacific also saw an above-average tropical cyclone season, with 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, the most active season since reliable record-keeping began in 1971. Three major hurricanes (Ignacio, Kilo and Jimena) were active across the two adjacent basins at the same time, the first time this occurrence has been observed. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) for the East Pacific basin during 2015 was 158, which is above the 1981-2010 average of 132 and the highest since 2006. The Central Pacific basin ACE during 2015 was 124.

Two major hurricane records were broken in the East Pacific basin during 2015. Hurricane Patricia was the strongest hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph and a central pressure of 879mb. Hurricane Sandra, which formed at the very end of the season in November had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and was the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so late in the year. The remnants of several East Pacific tropical cyclones made their way into the contiguous U.S. during the year, bringing flooding rains to parts of Southern California, the Southwest, and the Southern Plains. And if forecast models are right, El Nino will slowly die into the summer 2016 season with the hopes of a squeezing out a few more overachievers…

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Some waves you dream about. Others you're scared $#!+less of. Guess which one this is. Looks beautiful until you see it draining off the inside ledge. Sweet dreams.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
The Obvious Choice
3 Oscar Nominations
2007 Extreme Athlete of The Year

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Well isn't that special.

SURF:
Well I guess El Nino is here. Yikes. It's one thing to get a storm like that once a season. But if we're due for that type of stuff the next 3-4 months, look out.

We had amazing surf early in the week from a long period NW swell that was met up by a short period S swell from the same storm as it approached our coast. The result was 6-8' A-Frames up and down southern California. That of course was replaced with torrential rains, winds, and out of control storm surf Tuesday afternoon and in to today. Tomorrow looks to be more of the same of on the storm surf front but at least the weather will try to clean up slightly. But will all that rain, the water is toxic. Literally. Stay out. We've got more showers due for late Saturday as the surf continues to drop into the head high zone. The water MIGHT be somewhat palatable by Sunday afternoon as health officials advise to stay out of the water 72 hours after a heavy rain, but with the showers late Saturday, we'll probably have messy conditions again on Sunday. So where does that leave us for a weekend of surf? Nowhere. Best to sit this one out.

If you're still interested, the tides this weekend are 6.5' at sunrise, down to -1' late afternoon, and up to 1' at sunset. Water temps with all this wind the past month have dropped to 58-60 degrees. Time for a 4/3?

FORECAST:
Are we ever going to surf again? The answer is YES! And no. We've got more swell coming the next week but more cold fronts too. Fortunately the cold fronts look to be A LOT weaker than what we experienced this past week but you'll still need to plan your surf sessions accordingly.

First up is another solid NW swell for Tuesday. This one looks to be overhead for north county SD and a couple feet overhead in SD. We also have a weak cold front moving through the area (shocker) so we'll have a little wind and maybe some showers on it.

After that we have another solid NW with overhead waves next Friday. And yes, another cold front is forecasted. You wanted El Nino, right?

Of special note, models are showing a good storm off Antarctica early next week which would give us shoulder high SW around the 18th. Back to the northern hemisphere though; I'm impressed with the wind and rain this past month but I still haven't seen that monster swell yet. We've had some 12'+ surf lately but I want to see one of those 20'+ La Jolla Cove swells. Only time will tell.

WEATHER:

As Dana Carvey's 'Church Lady' on Saturday Night Live said: "Well isn't that special." One storm after another this week brought us waterspouts, floods, damaging winds, and the kitchen sink. Special indeed. I'll give a full report below in the 'NEWS OF THE WEEK' section. In the meantime, we're trying to dry out but there's still a couple small rain makers out there. Leftover showers will occur through tomorrow morning and we get a slight break Saturday morning. THEN more showers from a weak cold front move through Saturday night/Sunday morning. Monday is between showers and then more of the wet stuff on Tuesday. Wednesday/Thursday should be calm and then by Friday more showers. All of these will be around 0.25" each (compared to 1" from each of the big storms this week) so don't fret. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
 
BEST BET:
Hard to say- every time we get some surf next week- we get showers and windy conditions. If I had to make any predictions though, let's say late Sunday, early Tuesday, and early Friday. But don't quote me on that.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Doesn't matter if it's summer or winter around here, El Nino is going to puke water. Kind of gross, sorry, but here's the facts: We had our wettest summer on record for San Diego (June 22nd to September 22nd). Exactly 3" of rain fell in San Diego this summer, breaking the old summer record of 2.13" in 1977. This July in particular had the greatest July rainfall on record with 1.71", and this September witth 1.24" is tied for the 4th wettest September on record (see the story here). We had a fairly benign fall and then the stream of storms hit this week from the Pacific. Here's some rain totals to chew on (or sip if you prefer):

SNOW:
-Snow Summit/Big Bear 24-30"
-Mt. Laguna 12-15"
-Palomar Mountain 7"

RAIN:
-Mt. Woodson (inland/central SD): 7.15"
-Poway 5.48"
-Kearny Mesa 4.75"
-Oceanside 2.89"
-SD 2.77"
-Encinitas 2.63"
-Temecula 2.44"
-Newport Beach 2.32"
-Carlsbad 2.31"
-Palm Springs 2.12"
-Riverside 2.10"
-Borrego Springs 2.06"
-San Clemente 1.71"
-Point Loma 1.90"
-Victorville 0.81" (for all you US Route 395 fans)

Add that to the good late rains we had in the spring, record summer rains, and big storms the last few days; the past 12 months have given us roughly our normal 10" of rain. And the relenting stuff is yet to come in the next few months...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Every 'Pic of the Week' could be of Clark Little's work. Just fantastic work he does. I especially like this one though as it reminds me of almost every barrel I get. Just me and the big round green room. Only a surfer knows the feeling. Actually, I've never had a barrel this big in my life so I have no idea what I'm talking about. Maybe I should have asked Healey or Dorian for their opinion.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
So Money That I Don't Even Know It
Had My '81 Yugo Stolen In The Parking Lot of Taco de Carlos
Wore A Heated Vest While I Surfed Kelly's Wave Pool On My WaveJet