Thursday, January 7, 2016

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Well isn't that special.

SURF:
Well I guess El Nino is here. Yikes. It's one thing to get a storm like that once a season. But if we're due for that type of stuff the next 3-4 months, look out.
We had amazing surf early in the week from a long period NW swell that was met up by a short period S swell from the same storm as it approached our coast. The result was 6-8' A-Frames up and down southern California. That of course was replaced with torrential rains, winds, and out of control storm surf Tuesday afternoon and in to today. Tomorrow looks to be more of the same of on the storm surf front but at least the weather will try to clean up slightly. But will all that rain, the water is toxic. Literally. Stay out. We've got more showers due for late Saturday as the surf continues to drop into the head high zone. The water MIGHT be somewhat palatable by Sunday afternoon as health officials advise to stay out of the water 72 hours after a heavy rain, but with the showers late Saturday, we'll probably have messy conditions again on Sunday. So where does that leave us for a weekend of surf? Nowhere. Best to sit this one out.
If you're still interested, the tides this weekend are 6.5' at sunrise, down to -1' late afternoon, and up to 1' at sunset. Water temps with all this wind the past month have dropped to 58-60 degrees. Time for a 4/3?

FORECAST:
Are we ever going to surf again? The answer is YES! And no. We've got more swell coming the next week but more cold fronts too. Fortunately the cold fronts look to be A LOT weaker than what we experienced this past week but you'll still need to plan your surf sessions accordingly.
First up is another solid NW swell for Tuesday. This one looks to be overhead for north county SD and a couple feet overhead in SD. We also have a weak cold front moving through the area (shocker) so we'll have a little wind and maybe some showers on it.
After that we have another solid NW with overhead waves next Friday. And yes, another cold front is forecasted. You wanted El Nino, right?
Of special note, models are showing a good storm off Antarctica early next week which would give us shoulder high SW around the 18th. Back to the northern hemisphere though; I'm impressed with the wind and rain this past month but I still haven't seen that monster swell yet. We've had some 12'+ surf lately but I want to see one of those 20'+ La Jolla Cove swells. Only time will tell.

WEATHER:

As Dana Carvey's 'Church Lady' on Saturday Night Live said: "Well isn't that special." One storm after another this week brought us waterspouts, floods, damaging winds, and the kitchen sink. Special indeed. I'll give a full report below in the 'NEWS OF THE WEEK' section. In the meantime, we're trying to dry out but there's still a couple small rain makers out there. Leftover showers will occur through tomorrow morning and we get a slight break Saturday morning. THEN more showers from a weak cold front move through Saturday night/Sunday morning. Monday is between showers and then more of the wet stuff on Tuesday. Wednesday/Thursday should be calm and then by Friday more showers. All of these will be around 0.25" each (compared to 1" from each of the big storms this week) so don't fret. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
 
BEST BET:
Hard to say- every time we get some surf next week- we get showers and windy conditions. If I had to make any predictions though, let's say late Sunday, early Tuesday, and early Friday. But don't quote me on that.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Doesn't matter if it's summer or winter around here, El Nino is going to puke water. Kind of gross, sorry, but here's the facts: We had our wettest summer on record for San Diego (June 22nd to September 22nd). Exactly 3" of rain fell in San Diego this summer, breaking the old summer record of 2.13" in 1977. This July in particular had the greatest July rainfall on record with 1.71", and this September witth 1.24" is tied for the 4th wettest September on record (see the story here). We had a fairly benign fall and then the stream of storms hit this week from the Pacific. Here's some rain totals to chew on (or sip if you prefer):

SNOW:
-Snow Summit/Big Bear 24-30"
-Mt. Laguna 12-15"
-Palomar Mountain 7"

RAIN:
-Mt. Woodson (inland/central SD): 7.15"
-Poway 5.48"
-Kearny Mesa 4.75"
-Oceanside 2.89"
-SD 2.77"
-Encinitas 2.63"
-Temecula 2.44"
-Newport Beach 2.32"
-Carlsbad 2.31"
-Palm Springs 2.12"
-Riverside 2.10"
-Borrego Springs 2.06"
-San Clemente 1.71"
-Point Loma 1.90"
-Victorville 0.81" (for all you US Route 395 fans)

Add that to the good late rains we had in the spring, record summer rains, and big storms the last few days; the past 12 months have given us roughly our normal 10" of rain. And the relenting stuff is yet to come in the next few months...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Every 'Pic of the Week' could be of Clark Little's work. Just fantastic work he does. I especially like this one though as it reminds me of almost every barrel I get. Just me and the big round green room. Only a surfer knows the feeling. Actually, I've never had a barrel this big in my life so I have no idea what I'm talking about. Maybe I should have asked Healey or Dorian for their opinion.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
So Money That I Don't Even Know It
Had My '81 Yugo Stolen In The Parking Lot of Taco de Carlos
Wore A Heated Vest While I Surfed Kelly's Wave Pool On My WaveJet