Come up for air then get back in there!
SURF:
I don't want to sound like an old man, but this is the most consistent surf I can remember since... well since I can't remember. I'm almost hoping for rain this weekend so I can take a breather. And as luck would have it, stormy conditions are coming. But more on that in a minute.
FORECAST:
Once the storm blows through late Sunday, we're left with filthy water on Monday.
WEATHER:
This El Nino has been feast or famine. Lots of rain at the beginning of January and a storm this weekend to close out the month. Tomorrow and Saturday morning should be nice then the winds pick up strongly from the S mid-day on Saturday. By Saturday night it's howling, dumping, and cold. Sunday is more of the same. That cleans up by Monday and by mid-week we have nice weather again with temps in the mid-60's. Feast or famine I tell ya. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow or Saturday morning is the call as the swell peaks and we have clean conditions. Or Monday with large victory at sea conditions if you're Captain Ahab.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Is it hot in here or is it just me? It's hot in here you say? Whew! Thought it was me. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their year end report on the earth's climate for 2015- and yup, you guessed it, 2015 is Earth's warmest year by the widest margin on record. Congratulations earthlings! NOAA summed it up like this:
The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2015 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880. During the final month, the December combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was the highest on record for any month in the 136-year record.
Global highlights: Calendar Year 2015
During 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.62°F (0.90°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 136 years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.29°F (0.16°C) and marking the fourth time a global temperature record has been set this century. This is also the largest margin by which the annual global temperature record has been broken. Ten months had record high temperatures for their respective months during the year. The five highest monthly departures from average for any month on record all occurred during 2015.
Record warmth was broadly spread around the world, including Central America, the northern half of South America, parts of northern, southern, and eastern Europe stretching into western Asia, a large section of east central Siberia, regions of eastern and southern Africa, large parts of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific, a large swath of the western North Atlantic, most of the Indian Ocean, and parts of the Arctic Ocean.
During 2015, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.39°F (1.33°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.45°F (0.25°C). This is the largest margin by which the annual global land temperature has been broken.
During 2015, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.33°F (0.74°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of last year by 0.20°F (0.11°C).
Looking above Earth's surface at certain layers of the atmosphere, several different analyses examined NOAA satellite-based data records for the lower and middle troposphere and the lower stratosphere.
-The 2015 temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest five miles of the atmosphere) was third highest in the 1979-2015 record, at 0.65°F (0.36°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). It was also third highest on record, at 0.47°F (0.26°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.
-The 2015 temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly two miles to six miles above the surface) was third highest in the 1979–2015 record, at 0.49°F (0.27°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by UAH, and fourth highest on record, at 0.40°F (0.22°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by RSS. A routine University of Washington post-analysis found the UAH and RSS values to be 0.65°F (0.36°C) and 0.54°F (0.30°C), respectively, above the 1981–2010 average, both ranking third highest. Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.
-An independent assessment of the mid-troposphere, derived from weather balloons, found the mid-troposphere departure to be 0.92°F (0.51°C) above the 1981–2010 average, the highest in the 58-year period of record. Record warmth was observed during the September–November seasonal period as well as December.
-The temperature for the lower stratosphere (roughly 10 miles to 13 miles above the surface) was 13th lowest in the 1979–2015 record, at 0.56°F (0.31°C) below the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by UAH, and 14th lowest on record, at 0.40°F (0.22°C) below the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by RSS. The stratospheric temperature is decreasing on average while the lower and middle troposphere temperatures are increasing on average, consistent with expectations in a greenhouse-warmed world.
According to data from NOAA analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average annual Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during 2015 was 9.5 million square miles. This was the 11th smallest annual snow cover extent since records began in 1968 and smallest since 2008. The first half of 2015 saw generally below-normal snow cover extent, with above-average coverage later in the year.
Recent polar sea ice extent trends continued in 2015. The average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was 4.25 million square miles, the sixth smallest annual value of the 37-year period of record. The annual Antarctic sea ice extent on the otherhand was the third largest on record, at 4.92 million square miles, behind 2013 and 2014. (Guess I'm spending my winter break snowboarding at the bottom of the earth).
So there you have it: We're all melting. It wasn't your imagination after all!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
I'm a big fan of 'staycations'- you know- a vacation near home. Either Palm Springs (especially when Quiksilver builds their surf resort out there), or Catalina (if they would just re-open the Casino though), and even good ol' North County (shhhh- don't tell the Zonies). But a new spot I'm a big fan of for staycations is 'The Holidays'. All the fun of camping without the hassles of camping. Plus you get to surf Trestles to boot. Get the scoop here!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I'd totally paddle out but I'm afraid I'd snap my fins on the reef. Guess I'll have to wait for the tide to come in.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Idle Idol
Wrote That Old Children's Tale From The Sea
Coulda Shoulda Turned Pro
