THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Now I'm REALLY worried.

SURF:
This has been an amazing winter for surf with plenty of big waves and perfect conditions- but no rain. If it wasn't for our unusual summer rains we'd be a tinder box by now. But enough of Debbie Downer- let's talk about surf! More ridiculous waves and weather today for 8'+ surf from the W (and 10'+ sets in SD). The swell peaked last night but we'll still have lots of fun head high waves tomorrow. Which means most everywhere should be holding.

On it's heels is the 'Eddie' swell John John conquered today. The swell has more N in it than today's swell, so look for a slightly smaller swell Saturday afternoon but still overhead sets. The swell peaks Sunday. Long story short- look for good waves this weekend. Again. Water temps have been relatively warm from the lack of storms and subsequent heat wave (Scripps was 65 today) and most beaches are 62- about 7 degrees warmer than normal.

Tides this weekend are pretty straightforward; 1' at sunrise, up to 4' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset.

FORECAST:
After a good weekend of surf, we have a good upcoming week of surf.

A small storm is forecasted in the Aleutians this weekend which will give us a shot of head high NW on Monday.

Tuesday stays fun then a new solid overhead+ W swell arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. And then another bigger storm on it's heels should give us 10' surf late next weekend. Tired yet?

The southern hemisphere is starting to come alive as charts show a good storm next week which should give us shoulder high+ SW swell around the 9th of March. Now you're tired. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Now I'm REALLY worried. Forecast models are showing good weather through at least mid-March. So until then, we wait for winter El Nino to arrive. And at this rate, winter rains won't arrive until spring (March 21st) and by then it's all over. But enough of Debbie Downer- let's talk about our great weather! We have a weak cold front moving by to the N this weekend and we get a return of night/morning low clouds/fog for the next few days and hazy sunshine in the afternoons. Beach temps will be a pleasant 70 degrees. High pressure sets up mid-week for temps in the high 70's mid-week, then another weak trough is forecasted to move by to the N next weekend for night/morning low clouds again. Now you know why they call it America's Finest City.

BEST BET:
It's impossible to pinpoint one day when all of them will be good; either solid surf this weekend to get your heart pumping or fun surf mid-week and great weather or solid surf next Thursday to get your heart pumping...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Back in December, I mentioned in THE Surf Report the tides in recent memory seem like they’ve been higher than normal: http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-surf-report-early-edition_24.html. The main culprits seem to be the usual occurrence of the ‘King Tides’ and storm surges. Another newer factor was El Nino (due to water expanding when it warms). But let’s not forget our old scapegoat- global warming. Various news outlets reported this week that sea levels rose faster in the past century than during the previous 27 centuries due to man-made global warming. The USA Today has wrapped it up neatly for us:

"The 20th century rise was extraordinary in the context of the last three millennia — and the rise over the last two decades has been even faster," said Robert Kopp, study lead author and an associate professor at Rutgers University.

The study, "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era," was published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

To reach their conclusions, the scientists compiled a database of geological sea-level indicators from marshes, coral atolls and archaeological sites around the world that spanned the last 3,000 years.

Global sea levels stayed fairly steady for about 3,000 years. Then, with the Industrial Revolution, global sea levels began to rise, the study said. Scientists say the seas rose 5.5 inches from 1900 to 2000, a significant increase, especially for low-lying coastal areas.

The burning of fossil fuels for energy produces heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The warm air cause glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt. Warm water expands, taking up more space than cooler water or ice. Global sea levels have closely mirrored temperature changes over the years. As temperatures go up, so do sea levels.

Rising sea levels have already impacted U.S. coastal cities. Parts of Norfolk, Va., Charleston, S.C., and Miami flood at high tides, even when it's not raining, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Floods from storm surges, magnified by the rise in the sea level, have devastated cities including New Orleans and New York.

Another study — also published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by scientists from Germany, Spain and Columbia University — found that global sea level could increase by roughly one to four feet by 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide, methane and other gases are released into the atmosphere in the coming decades.

So all the extreme high tides you’ve seen this winter- get used to it.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I love that guy on the inside claiming the right- and he's not even on it!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Charmer
Dig Dug High Score
Completed the 'Mike Slam'- Eddie, Mavericks, Todos, & Jaws Winner

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Now I'm worried.

SURF:

Sure the weather's been amazing- but c'mon- it's been 80 for like weeks! And the 'storm' today dropped a whopping 0.10" of rain here in SD. We're only 4 weeks to spring and I'm giving up on El Nino. Not the surf mind you,  just the wet weather. On the bright side, I've probably jinxed myself and we'll get dumped on in March, but until then, enjoy Palm Springs at the beach. Let's do away with all these negative vibes though and talk surf!

New WNW was filling in today and we've got overhead surf on tap tomorrow. The weather will start to clean up too. Maybe some NW winds in the afternoon as the weak cold front clears out, but nothing too serious. On it's heels is a couple more smaller WNW swells to keep us in head high waves all weekend. AND the weather gets warm again. Looking good.

Tides the next few days are about 6' at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.

And with all the warm weather recently, our water has warmed up slightly to 62 degrees (with Scripps Pier hitting 66 this week- Holy Toledo).

FORECAST:
Great weather on tap to start the week and dropping NW swell but still some shoulder high sets towards SD.

By Wednesday morning it's small but the afternoon builds again with a solid W swell. Thursday we've got overhead sets.

And then the models try to over-hype another storm and we could have double overhead surf for the end of the month. Considering how good this winter's been, I wouldn't doubt it. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

The reason I'm worried is that we got all fired up for El Nino this winter only to have November and December start as a dud in the rain department. Then January hit and we got a series of 'El Nino' storms for almost 3" of rain and our hopes up. The rest of January was dry and February got us semi-excited with another inch of rain. Then today's 'storm' hit and we got a lousy 0.10". Now we're really in a hole. Even if we get some good storms in March, it won't be enough to make a serious dent in our drought. On the flip side, it's been great to wear boardies around town all winter. As far as our weather goes this weekend, we're in a transition day tomorrow with clear cool skies. High pressure starts to set up on Saturday and we've got temps in the mid-70's by Sunday. Early next week we're back to 80 at the beach. Models hint at high pressure breaking down by the end of the month with a shot of rain again but for the time being, we've got at least 10 days of summer-like weather.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow will be the biggest day but this weekend will have slightly better weather. Or wait until next Thursday for more great waves/weather.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This day in history is a good snapshot of what a real winter around here should be:

2005: This day marked the start of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which ended on 2/24. This also occurred on 1/13-19/1993, 2/14-20/1980, and 12/22-28/1971.

1993: Heavy rain across the region started on this day and ended on 2/20. One to two inches fell in Carlsbad. Flooding occurred from Oceanside to Encinitas. Homes were damaged along the Mojave River in Hesperia.

1990: Heavy snow that started on 2/16 and ended on this day brought three to four feet of snow to the mountains. 48 inches was recorded at Green Valley and 46 inches at Big Bear Lake. An avalanche at Wrightwood buried ten hikers, injuring one.

1988: Very strong Santa Ana winds started on 2/16 and ended on 2/19. Gusts of 90 mph at Newport Beach and 70+ mph in the San Gabriel Mountain foothills were measured on 2/17. Gusts to 76 mph hit Monument Peak - Mt. Laguna on this day. Gusts to 63 mph hit Ontario on this day and a gust of 50 mph was reported at Rancho Cucamonga on 2/16. Numerous trees and power lines were downed causing power outages near the foothills of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains. On 2/19 in Pauma Valley a mobile home was overturned and shingles were torn off roofs. Fontana schools were closed due to wind damage. Three were killed when a big rig truck overturned and burned, one was killed  having stepped on a downed power line). Power outages hit 200,000 customers in LA and Orange counties. Minor structural damage occurred to signs, etc. Grass fires resulted.

1984: Heavy rain that started on this day and ended on 2/19 caused mud slides in Orange County up to two feet deep. Up to 16 inches of snow fell in the mountains.

1980: Six storms that began on 2/13 hit Southern California continuing on this day. By 2/21, 12.75 inches measured in LA. 30 were killed in widespread floods and mud slides. Roads and hundreds of homes were destroyed or damaged. Mission Valley was completely inundated between Friars Rd. and I-8. Large waves hit coast during this stormy period, causing coastal flooding at Mission Beach, including water over the boardwalk and into houses.

1969: Heavy rain starting on 2/16 ended on 2/26. Up to 30 inches of precipitation fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 13 inches was recorded northwest of Mt. San Jacinto, around ten inches at Banning, less than one inch in eastern Coachella Valley. The death and destruction continued from the previous month. 21 died from flooding and mud slides all over California. An entire family was killed in Mt. Baldy Village when a mud slide hit their home. Extensive damage hit crops, farmland and livestock. Creeks around Yucaipa all left their banks and substantial flooding occurred to residences and businesses. In the upper desert farmlands became lakes and more than 100 homes along the Mojave River were damaged. Roads and bridges recently repaired from previous month’s damage either washed out or were destroyed again

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Now THAT'S what you call a wave horseshoeing. I could just stare at that all day long.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Smooth Operator
Applying For The Supreme Court Justice Opening
Been Called The Goofyfoot Parko

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

So I guess we just went straight into summer?

SURF:

Really can't complain about all the great weather and fun surf recently, but aren't we supposed to be in the middle of the biggest El Nino ever? Darn global warming has to go and screw everything up. Or Trump. Or Lee Harvey Oswalsd. Or Kelly's wave pool. Pick your conspiracy. Regardless, conditions have been epic and the surf has been manageable.

But as luck would have it (or Dorian would have it for that matter), we've got more surf filling in on the buoys today. Friday starts off with shoulder high waves and by sundown it's head high+. Saturday keeps rocking with overhead sets and 10' waves in SD. Sunday morning holds and starts to drop by the afternoon. There's also a small SW in the water but only spots in the OC that are blocked by the WNW from the offshore islands may see any of the SW. Every place else will be overrun by the larger WNW. All in all a good weekend for good surf. And with all this warm weather lately and lack of wind, water temps are in the low 60's with Mission Beach almost hitting 64 today. That's Florida temps people. Break out the spring suit!

Tides the next few days are about 1.5' at sunrise, up to 4.5' at lunch, and down to 0' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Still fun surf on Monday for chest high sets and Tuesday/Wednesday is pretty small but clean.

Rumor has it there's a storm coming (see below) and the forecasted swell maker will start to pick up our surf from the WNW Wednesday afternoon. Look for head high sets in N County on Thursday. After that there's a couple smaller storms that may give us NW swell late next weekend. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Should I feel guilty that I'm enjoying this awesome weather in the middle of our drought? Ha! No way! I drive a '72 Cadillac that gets 5 miles to the gallon and runs on leaded. I'm lovin' it! We've got a slight cool down this weekend as a weak low pressure trough passes by to the north of us. Look for temps to be in the low 70's (can't believe I said 'cool down' in the middle of February when it's going to be in the low 70's) and then high pressure sets up again on Monday for temps back in the high 70's at the beaches and weak offshore flow. Models hint at a stronger low pressure trying to break down the ridge late in the week for some showers but until then I'm slapping sunscreen on blowing up the kiddie pool.

BEST BET:
All President's Day Weekend. Thank you Abe.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

All this warm weather has got me worried. We’ve got the ‘strongest’ El Nino on record (more on that below) and we’re pretty much average with our rainfall this season- not enough to erase years of drought. So what gives? Let’s dive a little deeper with the help at our friends at NOAA. First up, the ‘record’ El Nino. Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked. Now that we’re looking out from the other side of the mountain, let’s answer some questions.

So is this the strongest El Niño on record, or what?

This is definitely one of the strongest three going back to 1950.  It’s hard to say definitively what single El Niño is the strongest, because there are a lot of different ways to measure strength. The Oceanic Niño Index, the three-month-average sea surface temperature departure from the long-term normal in one region of the Pacific Ocean, is the primary number we use to measure the ocean part of El Niño, and that value for November – January is 2.3°C, tied with the same period in 1997-98. There are other areas of the ocean that we watch, though, including the eastern Pacific (warmer in 1997/98) and the western Pacific (warmer in 2015/16). Also, don’t forget the “SO” part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the all-important atmospheric response. All that extra heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up the atmosphere above it, leading to more rising air, which changes the circulation all around the globe. By one measure (the EQSOI), the El Niño-related changes in the atmospheric circulation in 1997/98 and 2015/16 are tied; by another (the SOI), 1997/98 was stronger. We also look at tropical Pacific near-surface winds , subsurface ocean temperatures, upper-atmosphere winds, cloudiness… the list goes on! The image of tropical cloudiness (an indicator of rainfall) below is a good example of how a single index number over a single region doesn’t give you the whole picture of an El Niño’s “personality.” The El Niño-related cloudiness and rainfall pattern extended farther east along the equator in 1998, stretching all the way to the South American coast. These patterns are closely linked to the changes El Niño causes to global circulation, and therefore to El Niño’s impact on weather and climate.

In short, we can argue over which El Niño is stronger, or we can argue about who’s the better quarterback, John Elway or Peyton Manning. Hmmm… the Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl in both the 1997 and 2015 seasons…

But I saw in the media that this month’s Niño3.4 is a few hundredths of a degree above January 1997. Isn’t that a record?

Maybe.  Maybe not. Part of the difficulty in assigning “record” status in a close contest is that we just can’t measure the temperature of every molecule of water in the tropical Pacific. (And satellites don’t have magical space thermometers.) So there’s always some uncertainty in the measurement. We checked with our colleagues at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information*, who told us that, for this dataset, the ERSSTv4, the uncertainty in those final numbers beyond the decimal point prevents a declaration of “record!” The uncertainty in this one dataset is not huge, as you can see in the shaded area below, but it’s bigger than the difference between 1998 and 2016.

So all of that is fine and dandy- we’re supposedly in the midst of the biggest El Nino ever (allegedly)-  so where does that leave us with our rain?

A quiet start to California’s 2016 water year (October 2015-September 2016) might have disappointed residents burdened under a severe, multi-year drought. However, a parade of storms coming off the Pacific Ocean during the middle and end of January gave parts of California their first real winter soaking.  Still, the water year so far has been pretty normal, and drought remains in place across much of the state. Starting from the middle of January, a factory line of storms continuously came ashore across northern California, dropping snow across higher elevations and heavy rain elsewhere. In particular, on January 29, an atmospheric river – a narrow band of moisture that comes straight out of the tropics – was pointed directly towards northern California. During the event, liquid water totals exceeded 3 inches (greater than 5 inches in some places) across the Sierra Nevada, with at least an inch of rain falling across most of northern California. Over the next two days, a developing storm system along the coast brought those rains farther south, where rains had been less infrequent. On January 31 in southern California, up to an inch of rain fell across dry coastal regions, 2-4 inches of rain were observed in the mountains in Santa Barbara County, and up to eight inches of snow blanketed ski resorts.

How about the drought?

Of course, one wet month isn’t going to erase California’s drought. Looking at the 2016 water year to date, it’s clear that while some interior portions of California as well as northern California have recorded above-average precipitation, areas to the south, including the heavily populated coastal corridor stretching from Santa Barbara to San Diego, have seen precipitation less than 75% of normal. While the January rains have helped southern California, they’ll need to occur more often to get this year back to normal—let alone to reduce rainfall deficits that have accumulated since 2011. Still, conditions have improved in some respects. January was the best month for California’s snowpack since 2011, and the amount of water contained in the Sierra Nevada snowpack is more than 100% of normal for this time of year. The reservoir at Folsom Lake ended the month 107% of average, after levels rose by over a factor of three since the end of November. The state’s largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, located in central/northern California have also seen their water levels rise, although they remain below average at 77% and 67% of normal, respectively.

What happened to drenching El Niño? I was promised rain!

Going into the winter, many were hoping that El Niño would deliver drought-busting levels of precipitation, as it has been known to do in winters past. Remember, El Niño—even one as strong as this one—is no guarantee of rainfall for southern California; it just tilts the odds in favor of a wetter-than-average winter. So far, southern California hasn’t been lucky, but there are still two months left in the wet season. All hope is not lost. But it’s getting there…

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is part 2 of last week's Pic of the Week- a close up shot of 'Heaven on Earth'. Can't you just picture yourself at one of those tables after a marathon 4 hour session having a cold Zima and a big bowl of quinoa?  (Did I just say that out loud?)

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Jet Setter
Stole The New Wu Tang Album Off Pharma Bro
Broke The World Speed Record At Maalaea- 78 MPH

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Can I rest now?

SURF:
We finally get to sit back, relax, and assess the damage.

Winds have backed off,  the surf has dropped, and it feels like winter in San Diego (sunny skies and 70 degrees). I'm going through withdrawals! Bring me surf!

Luckily for us, we have new WNW filling in on the buoys tonight. Tomorrow morning we'll have head high waves with overhead sets and some bigger waves in SD. Nothing huge like we've seen the past month- but still plenty of waves. Saturday starts to drop and by Sunday we've got chest high waves and great conditions. As the WNW backs off, we'll see a little background SW too over the weekend.

Beware the tides though! We've got a 6' tide at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and back up to 3' at sunset. Water temps have dropped to 58 thanks to all the wind lately. Time to dust off that 4/3.

FORECAST:
No big surf to start the week but at least the weather will be incredible and we'll have little shots of WNW and SW headed our way for waist to chest high surf.

Models show a good storm forming in the N Pacific next week which may give us 10'+ WNW surf again next weekend. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

This is what winter is supposed to look like in southern California; now that the windy/wet storm has left: strong high pressure has set up behind it and we've got offshore winds the next few days. Nothing too strong but gusts in the early mornings/late nights around 15-20 mph at the beaches and during the day, temps in the high 70's. Those early morning sessions should be killer (just pick your high tide spot wisely). The weather starts to cool down the 2nd half of next week but no rain through at least the next 7 days.
 
BEST BET:
Tomorrow- peaking WNW and offshore winds in the AM. Or maybe smaller combo swell on Saturday and still great conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

We spend a lot of time analyzing waves above the ocean surface, as in, ‘The waves were 6’ and firing today!’ (Hawaiians on the other hand would say that same wave is only 3’). But do we really know what happens below the ocean surface? With all the shark attacks the past few years, you probably don’t want to know what’s beneath you in the line-up.

But there’s actually some useful information underwater. Like a wave will start to break when it reaches a water depth of 1.3 times the wave height (so an 8’ wave will generally break 10.4’ of water). Or that wind generated waves move in a circular oscillating motion (as opposed to tsunami generated waves which are initiated with a push and result in a destructive surge). And today’s topic: Bathymetry! Now before you stop reading this and go straight to the Pic of the Week, here me out. Our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration give the term ‘bathymetry’ as “Referred to as the ocean's depth relative to sea level, although it has come to mean “submarine topography,” or the depths and shapes of underwater terrain. In the same way that topographic maps represent the three-dimensional features (or relief) of overland terrain, bathymetric maps illustrate the land that lies underwater. Variations in sea-floor relief may be depicted by color and contour lines called depth contours or isobaths. Bathymetry is the foundation of the science of hydrography, which measures the physical features of a water body.  Hydrography includes not only bathymetry, but also the shape and features of the shoreline; the characteristics of tides, currents, and waves; and the physical and chemical properties of the water itself.” For our sake today though, we’ll just stick to bathymetry.

So why is it important? Let’s look at the obvious answer: Black’s Beach in La Jolla. The offshore canyon makes some of the best A-Frame peaks in the world. As a wave enters the underwater canyon, it starts to feel bottom and bend towards the wall of the canyon. As it does, it wraps on itself (or even subsequent waves behind it) and creates wedges. The dreamy bowly peaky kind.

You’ll also notice that if you ever take the road down to Blacks on the south end of the beach, the waves are significantly smaller down there in comparison to the surfing spots North Peak and South Peak. That’s because the canyon is aimed directly at the road and the waves bend away from it- towards South Peak and eventually North Peak.

The same effect happens to Scripps and La Jolla Shores. The head of the canyon is aimed at the lifeguard tower at La Jolla Shores and the waves bend up the beach towards Scripps Pier. I’ve actually been taking my groms surfing down there this winter when it’s been 10-12’ and out of control up and down the coast; La Jolla Shores will actually be 2-4’ and manageable. But what about the rest of the coast? Is there any other canyons you should be aware of?

Our friends in the OC have Newport Point to be thankful for. Remember Hurricane Marie? Newport Point was 20’ and bombing- thanks to the offshore canyon. Is there any more canyons you ask? Of course- but you’ll have to find them yourself. Just check out NOAA’s bathymetry website here. As you search, remember that the closer the canyon is to shore (as in the case of La Jolla and Newport), the greater the effect will be. Too far offshore and it will get diluted by the time it reaches the beach. Other than that- happy hunting!

BEST OF THE BLOG:

There's been some far fetched ideas floating around lately- like sending a man to Mars, the Chargers moving to L.A., putting Trump in office, and building a pier in Carlsbad. The most plausible could be putting a pier in Carlsbad- especially on a stretch of beach that could use a little TLC in the quality wave department. Get the details in the blog below.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If I've died and gone to heaven, I don't want to know.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Hero
On Walkabout. But On A Well Defined Trail. And Home By Dark.
Made A Homemade Wave Pool In A Billabong

North County Business News: Carlsbad Is Feeling Pier Pressure

There's been some far fetched ideas floating around lately- like sending a man to Mars, building a stadium for the Chargers, putting Trump in office, and building a pier in Carlsbad. Now before you get your underwear all bunched up (about President Trump), a pier in Carlsbad has been tossed around before- like 20 years ago. Carlsbad loves controversy- like what to do with the power plant, what kind of development is going on at Ponto, the desalination plant of course; so adding one more lightening rod in the form of a pier isn't that big of a deal.

One of the last undeveloped stretches of coast in all of Southern California happens to be from the jetties at Ponto, north to the power plant (about 3.5 miles). Ponto is spoken for with the new hotels/retail going in and the campgrounds take up almost 1/3 of the space, so what's left is about a mile of coast at the end of Palomar Airport Road. This idea would encompass the pier, shops, restaurants, and possibly City Hall.

Now of course there's pros and cons with a pier. The pro being that piers make good surf- especially on a stretch of beach that sees good surf once every leap year (which means there should be waves down there on February 29th- set your clocks). The cons being what kind of development is in store- you can't just build a pier and not put a Ruby's on it- or develop the empty lots surrounding the bluffs. The San Diego Union Tribune went into depth on the subject recently and here is what they had to say:

A beach with a pier is one of the iconic images of California, and some people think Carlsbad might fit into that picture.

The idea of a Carlsbad pier has surfaced occasionally over the years, and had some serious support in the mid-1990s. Two local businessmen drew up a proposal to build a public recreational pier, along with mix of parking, restaurants, shops and perhaps a health spa and other complementary businesses, on the bluff at the foot of Palomar Airport Road. “The city was looking at realigning the intersection of Carlsbad Boulevard and Palomar Airport Road,” said Bob Ladwig, a Carlsbad planning consultant. “I did a plan that showed the realigned intersection, the pier ... and public spaces.” Ladwig said last week that at the time he and a partner talked to a number of staff members at the city, state parks department and Coastal Commission, and they were all supportive, but no one ever submitted an application. “They all get excited about it, and then that’s the end of it,” he said.

The pier idea popped up again a few years ago during discussions that led to an update of the city’s General Plan, which serves as the city’s planning guide for the next 20 years. However, there’s no mention of a pier in the final updated plan the City Council approved in September. A pier is also one of the possibilities listed on the website of Imagine Carlsbad, a nonprofit group formed 10 years ago to look at ways to improve the city.

Palomar Airport Road intersects with Carlsbad Boulevard, also known as Highway 101, with a swooping overpass that’s reminiscent of a freeway on-ramp or off-ramp. Until recently the city had considered changing the intersection to a “T” with a signal light to control traffic, which would help free up space around the intersection and make it safer for cyclists and pedestrians.

Part of the plan for the redesigned intersection was a swap between the city and the state of several small disconnected pieces of land near the intersection, which would link up the city’s property and provide better access to the nearby South Carlsbad State Beach. City officials have looked into that trade as recently as 2012, when state legislation proposed by Assemblyman Martin Garrick, R-Carlsbad, failed to get the support it needed to pass. Mayor Matt Hall said the city is still looking at a lot of possibilities for improving access to its beaches, but a pier is not one of them. “There’s a whole lot of stuff happening along our coastline right now,” he said.

Eventually about 3.5 miles of coastline, from the power plant at Terramar south to the city boundary at Leucadia, could become a single linear park, Hall said. As part of that, instead of the proposed land swap, a long-term lease of state land now appears more likely. Also, instead of a “T” intersection at Palomar Airport Road, the city is now looking at the possibility of a roundabout. Any of those changes would be preceded by lots of public meetings and community discussions, the mayor said.

Ladwig worked on the pier idea in the 1990s with Carlsbad developer Robert Bentley, whose portfolio of current projects includes the 105-home Cantarini Ranch neighborhood planned east of El Camino Real near Cannon Road and College Boulevard. Both men said last week a public pier could still fit into the mix. Bentley said Thursday that the pier idea grew from a conversation he had with Ladwig about potential opportunities in Carlsbad. “Everything that you do in the development business has to have a public benefit,” Bentley said. “To me, this is a combination of all the sorts of public benefits you hear talked about.”

A pier would help provide the access to the beach and the ocean that is the goal of the Coastal Commission and state Parks and Recreation Department, he said. For the city, it also could be a long-term source of income from the activities there, and possibly a new location for city offices. It also would fit in with Legoland, nearby hotels, and other attractions on that end of Carlsbad. “It’s definitely a tourist-serving sort of thing,” Bentley said. “Like all neat tourist-serving things, the residents benefit from it year round.” Diana Lilly, a senior planner in the San Diego office of the Coastal Commission, called the idea “intriguing.” “In general, it would take a permit from the Coastal Commission,” Lilly said. “We would be looking at it like any other project.” Coastal Commission staffers would consider the project’s effects on marine biology, the sand supply and other factors, she said. They would look at anything that goes into the water, such as the support columns of the pier, and how they might affect the environment. “Any pier that was built would absolutely have to be for public access and not just for something like a restaurant,” Lilly said. It would have to be available for fishing, sightseeing, walking and other recreational activities.

San Diego has several large ocean piers, though the only one in North County is in Oceanside. Oceanside has had a series of six piers since the 1800s and most have been washed away in winter storms. The concrete entrance to the pier was constructed in 1925 and the latest version of the Oceanside Municipal Pier — which at 1,942 feet is one of the longest wooden piers in California — was built in 1987 at a cost of $5 million. There hasn’t been a new public pier built in the county for at least 20 years and probably considerably longer, Lilly said. Any new pier would be expensive and would require the cooperation of multiple property owners and numerous local, state and federal agencies. “I’m sure its a major, huge undertaking,” Lilly said. "

Will this become reality? Probably not; it would have to get through the Coastal Commission, environmentalists (still not sure how they let a high rise get built on the shores of La Jolla), and the city has bigger fish to fry; like the power plant, desal plant, and Ponto. But if a pier could get built, it sure would help thin out the crowds at all the other surf spots...