THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Now I'm REALLY worried.

SURF:
This has been an amazing winter for surf with plenty of big waves and perfect conditions- but no rain. If it wasn't for our unusual summer rains we'd be a tinder box by now. But enough of Debbie Downer- let's talk about surf! More ridiculous waves and weather today for 8'+ surf from the W (and 10'+ sets in SD). The swell peaked last night but we'll still have lots of fun head high waves tomorrow. Which means most everywhere should be holding.

On it's heels is the 'Eddie' swell John John conquered today. The swell has more N in it than today's swell, so look for a slightly smaller swell Saturday afternoon but still overhead sets. The swell peaks Sunday. Long story short- look for good waves this weekend. Again. Water temps have been relatively warm from the lack of storms and subsequent heat wave (Scripps was 65 today) and most beaches are 62- about 7 degrees warmer than normal.

Tides this weekend are pretty straightforward; 1' at sunrise, up to 4' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset.

FORECAST:
After a good weekend of surf, we have a good upcoming week of surf.

A small storm is forecasted in the Aleutians this weekend which will give us a shot of head high NW on Monday.

Tuesday stays fun then a new solid overhead+ W swell arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. And then another bigger storm on it's heels should give us 10' surf late next weekend. Tired yet?

The southern hemisphere is starting to come alive as charts show a good storm next week which should give us shoulder high+ SW swell around the 9th of March. Now you're tired. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Now I'm REALLY worried. Forecast models are showing good weather through at least mid-March. So until then, we wait for winter El Nino to arrive. And at this rate, winter rains won't arrive until spring (March 21st) and by then it's all over. But enough of Debbie Downer- let's talk about our great weather! We have a weak cold front moving by to the N this weekend and we get a return of night/morning low clouds/fog for the next few days and hazy sunshine in the afternoons. Beach temps will be a pleasant 70 degrees. High pressure sets up mid-week for temps in the high 70's mid-week, then another weak trough is forecasted to move by to the N next weekend for night/morning low clouds again. Now you know why they call it America's Finest City.

BEST BET:
It's impossible to pinpoint one day when all of them will be good; either solid surf this weekend to get your heart pumping or fun surf mid-week and great weather or solid surf next Thursday to get your heart pumping...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Back in December, I mentioned in THE Surf Report the tides in recent memory seem like they’ve been higher than normal: http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-surf-report-early-edition_24.html. The main culprits seem to be the usual occurrence of the ‘King Tides’ and storm surges. Another newer factor was El Nino (due to water expanding when it warms). But let’s not forget our old scapegoat- global warming. Various news outlets reported this week that sea levels rose faster in the past century than during the previous 27 centuries due to man-made global warming. The USA Today has wrapped it up neatly for us:

"The 20th century rise was extraordinary in the context of the last three millennia — and the rise over the last two decades has been even faster," said Robert Kopp, study lead author and an associate professor at Rutgers University.

The study, "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era," was published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

To reach their conclusions, the scientists compiled a database of geological sea-level indicators from marshes, coral atolls and archaeological sites around the world that spanned the last 3,000 years.

Global sea levels stayed fairly steady for about 3,000 years. Then, with the Industrial Revolution, global sea levels began to rise, the study said. Scientists say the seas rose 5.5 inches from 1900 to 2000, a significant increase, especially for low-lying coastal areas.

The burning of fossil fuels for energy produces heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The warm air cause glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt. Warm water expands, taking up more space than cooler water or ice. Global sea levels have closely mirrored temperature changes over the years. As temperatures go up, so do sea levels.

Rising sea levels have already impacted U.S. coastal cities. Parts of Norfolk, Va., Charleston, S.C., and Miami flood at high tides, even when it's not raining, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Floods from storm surges, magnified by the rise in the sea level, have devastated cities including New Orleans and New York.

Another study — also published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by scientists from Germany, Spain and Columbia University — found that global sea level could increase by roughly one to four feet by 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide, methane and other gases are released into the atmosphere in the coming decades.

So all the extreme high tides you’ve seen this winter- get used to it.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I love that guy on the inside claiming the right- and he's not even on it!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Charmer
Dig Dug High Score
Completed the 'Mike Slam'- Eddie, Mavericks, Todos, & Jaws Winner