So I guess we just went straight into summer?
SURF:
Really can't complain about all the great weather and fun surf recently, but aren't we supposed to be in the middle of the biggest El Nino ever? Darn global warming has to go and screw everything up. Or Trump. Or Lee Harvey Oswalsd. Or Kelly's wave pool. Pick your conspiracy. Regardless, conditions have been epic and the surf has been manageable.
FORECAST:
Still fun surf on Monday for chest high sets and Tuesday/Wednesday is pretty small but clean.
WEATHER:
Should I feel guilty that I'm enjoying this awesome weather in the middle of our drought? Ha! No way! I drive a '72 Cadillac that gets 5 miles to the gallon and runs on leaded. I'm lovin' it! We've got a slight cool down this weekend as a weak low pressure trough passes by to the north of us. Look for temps to be in the low 70's (can't believe I said 'cool down' in the middle of February when it's going to be in the low 70's) and then high pressure sets up again on Monday for temps back in the high 70's at the beaches and weak offshore flow. Models hint at a stronger low pressure trying to break down the ridge late in the week for some showers but until then I'm slapping sunscreen on blowing up the kiddie pool.
BEST BET:
All President's Day Weekend. Thank you Abe.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
All this warm weather has got me worried. We’ve got the ‘strongest’ El Nino on record (more on that below) and we’re pretty much average with our rainfall this season- not enough to erase years of drought. So what gives? Let’s dive a little deeper with the help at our friends at NOAA. First up, the ‘record’ El Nino. Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked. Now that we’re looking out from the other side of the mountain, let’s answer some questions.
So is this the strongest El Niño on record, or what?
This is definitely one of the strongest three going back to 1950. It’s hard to say definitively what single El Niño is the strongest, because there are a lot of different ways to measure strength. The Oceanic Niño Index, the three-month-average sea surface temperature departure from the long-term normal in one region of the Pacific Ocean, is the primary number we use to measure the ocean part of El Niño, and that value for November – January is 2.3°C, tied with the same period in 1997-98. There are other areas of the ocean that we watch, though, including the eastern Pacific (warmer in 1997/98) and the western Pacific (warmer in 2015/16). Also, don’t forget the “SO” part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the all-important atmospheric response. All that extra heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up the atmosphere above it, leading to more rising air, which changes the circulation all around the globe. By one measure (the EQSOI), the El Niño-related changes in the atmospheric circulation in 1997/98 and 2015/16 are tied; by another (the SOI), 1997/98 was stronger. We also look at tropical Pacific near-surface winds , subsurface ocean temperatures, upper-atmosphere winds, cloudiness… the list goes on! The image of tropical cloudiness (an indicator of rainfall) below is a good example of how a single index number over a single region doesn’t give you the whole picture of an El Niño’s “personality.” The El Niño-related cloudiness and rainfall pattern extended farther east along the equator in 1998, stretching all the way to the South American coast. These patterns are closely linked to the changes El Niño causes to global circulation, and therefore to El Niño’s impact on weather and climate.
But I saw in the media that this month’s Niño3.4 is a few hundredths of a degree above January 1997. Isn’t that a record?
Maybe. Maybe not. Part of the difficulty in assigning “record” status in a close contest is that we just can’t measure the temperature of every molecule of water in the tropical Pacific. (And satellites don’t have magical space thermometers.) So there’s always some uncertainty in the measurement. We checked with our colleagues at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information*, who told us that, for this dataset, the ERSSTv4, the uncertainty in those final numbers beyond the decimal point prevents a declaration of “record!” The uncertainty in this one dataset is not huge, as you can see in the shaded area below, but it’s bigger than the difference between 1998 and 2016.
So all of that is fine and dandy- we’re supposedly in the midst of the biggest El Nino ever (allegedly)- so where does that leave us with our rain?
A quiet start to California’s 2016 water year (October 2015-September 2016) might have disappointed residents burdened under a severe, multi-year drought. However, a parade of storms coming off the Pacific Ocean during the middle and end of January gave parts of California their first real winter soaking. Still, the water year so far has been pretty normal, and drought remains in place across much of the state. Starting from the middle of January, a factory line of storms continuously came ashore across northern California, dropping snow across higher elevations and heavy rain elsewhere. In particular, on January 29, an atmospheric river – a narrow band of moisture that comes straight out of the tropics – was pointed directly towards northern California. During the event, liquid water totals exceeded 3 inches (greater than 5 inches in some places) across the Sierra Nevada, with at least an inch of rain falling across most of northern California. Over the next two days, a developing storm system along the coast brought those rains farther south, where rains had been less infrequent. On January 31 in southern California, up to an inch of rain fell across dry coastal regions, 2-4 inches of rain were observed in the mountains in Santa Barbara County, and up to eight inches of snow blanketed ski resorts.
How about the drought?
Of course, one wet month isn’t going to erase California’s drought. Looking at the 2016 water year to date, it’s clear that while some interior portions of California as well as northern California have recorded above-average precipitation, areas to the south, including the heavily populated coastal corridor stretching from Santa Barbara to San Diego, have seen precipitation less than 75% of normal. While the January rains have helped southern California, they’ll need to occur more often to get this year back to normal—let alone to reduce rainfall deficits that have accumulated since 2011. Still, conditions have improved in some respects. January was the best month for California’s snowpack since 2011, and the amount of water contained in the Sierra Nevada snowpack is more than 100% of normal for this time of year. The reservoir at Folsom Lake ended the month 107% of average, after levels rose by over a factor of three since the end of November. The state’s largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, located in central/northern California have also seen their water levels rise, although they remain below average at 77% and 67% of normal, respectively.
What happened to drenching El Niño? I was promised rain!
Going into the winter, many were hoping that El Niño would deliver drought-busting levels of precipitation, as it has been known to do in winters past. Remember, El Niño—even one as strong as this one—is no guarantee of rainfall for southern California; it just tilts the odds in favor of a wetter-than-average winter. So far, southern California hasn’t been lucky, but there are still two months left in the wet season. All hope is not lost. But it’s getting there…
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is part 2 of last week's Pic of the Week- a close up shot of 'Heaven on Earth'. Can't you just picture yourself at one of those tables after a marathon 4 hour session having a cold Zima and a big bowl of quinoa? (Did I just say that out loud?)
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Jet Setter
Stole The New Wu Tang Album Off Pharma Bro
Broke The World Speed Record At Maalaea- 78 MPH
