Thursday, August 11, 2016

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Patience young grasshopper.

SURF:
In the immortal words of my 10 year old grom: 'Are we there yet'?


Not much to speak of this week. No Chubascos, Monsters from New Zealand, or Aleutian Juice. Just  waist high background SW and maybe a touch of tiny NW windswell. No reason to get excited this weekend either. Models show a little increase in the NW windswell Saturday/Sunday but that may only give us waist high waves again and a tad bigger set in SD.


Water is still nice at 75 degrees and tides this weekend match the surf too: boring. Just 3.5' at sunrise, down to 2.5' at lunch, and up to 5' at sunset. At least we live in a great place so get out there and enjoy the weekend regardless!

FORECAST:
The start to the workweek is looking small, so still no reason to play hooky.

Models today though show a good storm in the southern hemisphere (finally) and we should see a couple chest high sets from the SSW Tuesday afternoon.  Swell peaks Thursday with head high sets and we can all let out a sigh of relief.


Models also show a small NW arriving around the same time so beach breaks could be peaky. After that it goes quiet again. Bummer.


But forecast charts show another storm off New Zealand taking shape around the 18th which may give us shoulder high SW towards the 27th. And in the interim, things could change for the better if the hurricanes decide to play nice. But until then, all quiet off Baja. Make sure to keep up to date on any developing storms at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:


Nice weekend on tap- at least better than last weekend where the clouds and cool weather decided to hang around as unexpected house guests. High pressure is moving in from the Pacific tomorrow and there will be sun at the beaches by lunch and temps in the high 70's. By the middle of next week we have a chance of monsoon moisture moving in from the deserts but until then, just great summer weather.

BEST BET:
Next Thursday. Unless you have a time machine then anytime you want.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


If global warming wasn’t a thorn in our side already from rising air temperatures, drought, coral bleaching, stronger hurricanes, blah blah blah, it’s the little things that are just as annoying. Like this report from the New Jersey Institute of Technology:

Batches of sand from a beach on the Delaware Bay are yielding insights into the powerful impact of temperature rise and evaporation along the shore that are giving insight as to what causes beach salinity to fluctuate in coastal zones that support a rich network of sea creatures and plants. The findings have implications for the migration and survival of invertebrates such as mussels and crabs as global warming drives temperatures higher.


A study of the effects of evaporation on water and salinity, or salt content, in the beach intertidal zone was published this week by Scientific Reports. The findings show that sediments from some sections of Slaughter Beach in Delaware have salt concentrations four times as high as the ocean water that washes over them. The finding came as a surprise.

The nearshore seawater the team measured had salt concentrations of 25 grams per liter (g/L), leading the researchers to expect that the subsurface water in areas of the beach it infiltrated would have similar or even lower levels as seawater mixes with inland groundwater in this zone. However, they discovered that the average salinity in the upper intertidal zone -- the high tide line -- was 60 g/L, with some values reaching as high as 100.


"These elevated levels can only be caused by evaporation, as there is no other mechanism for increasing the salt in the water trapped between the grains of sediment," said Xiaolong Geng, a postdoctoral fellow at NJIT and the principal author of the study, noting that the rates of evaporation -- and salinity -- are thus mainly determined by temperature and relative humidity, while tide and wave flows dilute a beach's salt content.

"Previous studies have identified seawater as the primary source of salinity in coastal aquifer systems, thereby concluding that seawater infiltration always increases groundwater mixing dynamics," said Michel Boufadel, director of CNRDP. The team analyzed nearly 400 sediment samples collected during the sequential phases of a complete tidal cycle, from day to night, on seven different days.


What does this have to do with us here in Southern California? Well, we're chock full of intertidal zones here in north county San Diego as well as Bolsa Chica in Orange County. These dynamic habitats, washed by seawater at high tide and uncovered at low tide, are favored by crabs, mussels and sea anemones, the birds and sea mammals that feed on them, and plants such as kelp. Many of these animals burrow in the beach to find food and to seek protection from predators and the action of waves, and are in near constant contact with the salty land. The researchers have developed models that show that increases in temperature associated with global warming will not only make inland locations more salty, but would also create drastically different pattern of salinity that will have implications for animals and plants in the intertidal zone.

"Evaporation is an important driver of underground water flow and salinity gradients, and animals such as mussels and crabs are affected by changes in salinity. If the concentrations are too high or too low, they will move away," noted Geng.

And once they move away, we can finally dredge those lagoons and develop ports for container ships like L.A.!

PIC OF THE WEEK:


Last week's Pic of the Week was a left and this week's Pic of the Week is also a left. What can I say? I'm a goofyfoot!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
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