And we're back!
SURF:
Sorry for the lack of THE Surf Report last week. But you already knew there were waves last weekend. And if you didn't, you must have been stuck at a soccer tournament in Mission Viejo. Either way, we have more surf this weekend. Before you get excited, let me just say it's not time to dust off the step up yet, but there will be a couple fun waves from a variety of sources.
FORECAST:
The surf keeps on rolling Monday with chest high waves and we start to get another increase in SSW swell on Tuesday.
WEATHER:
Nothing to really talk about for the next 7 days. Weak low pressure is up north this weekend and that kicks up our clouds down here along with slightly cooler temperatures. No big deal- just not a hot beach weekend. Temps look to be in the low 70's and the clouds will be slow to burn off at the coast. Models show high pressure building early next week and we get a slow warm-up but no real heat wave yet- maybe high 70's at the beaches. Deserts may have a flare up of hit and miss thunderstorms this weekend but that's the only real excitement in southern California for the near future.
BEST BET:
Next Wednesday with peaking shoulder high SSW or daydream and hope for bigger SW on the 9th.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The colder than average water temps the past week make it official -- El Niño is dead. But its demise doesn't necessarily mean the earth is in for a breather when it comes to wild weather. Our friends at CNN elaborated for us recently that the evil the twin of El Nino, known as La Nina, will make a mess of things in it’s own right:
The recent El Nino -- characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean -- has been one of the strongest ever recorded, and its impact has been felt far and wide. Record smashing temperatures hit Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. In Malaysia, lakes dried up and vegetables withered. Weak monsoons and killer heatwaves left India barren and praying for rain. Storms pounded the Northern Californian coast, leaving apartments teetering on cliff edges as backyards dropped into the ocean. The weather system may have even contributed to the spread of Zika by creating conditions that helped mosquito populations thrive.
So now what?
Just as with El Niño, the most consistent and significant impact of La Nina will be noticed in the regions that border the Pacific Ocean, where the winds and ocean temperatures show the greatest variation. Wetter than normal conditions are likely for northern Australia and Indonesia, as well as the Philippines.
This rainfall will be welcome in some areas, as El Niño fueled droughts have plagued much of Southeast Asia for the past several months.
La Niña is also expected to give a boost to the Southwest Monsoon over India, which after two disastrous, drought-inducing monsoon seasons, is expected to be above average this year. La Niña events have previously seen a drop in global average temperatures, which will be welcome news after the recent heatwaves that have struck the region. However, it's not all positive. "La Niña increases the risk of intense storms and tropical cyclones for Australia's east coast," says Dr Agus Santoso, a senior scientist at the University of New South Wales. "While La Nina brings more rain which is good for farming, there are concerns. Flood mitigation measures should be in place."
What about the other side of the Pacific?
Western South America will probably see drier than normal conditions, with the potential for drought in Peru and Chile. In the U.S., La Niña is likely to bring drier than normal conditions in the Southwest, as well as the Rockies and Southern Plains. Enhanced rainfall normally arrives in the Pacific Northwest and to a lesser extent over the Ohio Valley, as well as below normal temperatures. But perhaps the most impactful characteristic of La Niña in North America is the role it can play in the hurricane seasons. The Atlantic hurricane season generally sees an increase in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms due to weaker wind shear, which can inhibit tropical systems from forming. Over the past decade there have been seven hurricanes or tropical storms that caused at least one billion dollars of damage in the U.S. 5 of the 7 came during the La Nina years of 2008 and 2011 -- including Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, which caused over $30 billion in damage and resulted in 112 deaths.
So what exactly is La Niña?
La Niña is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern -- a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the Pacific. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which is the warm phase of the cycle. El Niño is characterized by a warming of the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña features a cooling of those same Pacific waters. A La Niña setup begins when strong, easterly winds blow the top-most, warmer layer of water towards Australia and Indonesia, leaving the central-eastern Pacific Ocean as much as four degrees below average. Experts say that sea surface temperatures have dropped and been neutral since mid-May, which has signaled the demise of El Niño. Climate models suggest the Pacific will continue to cool, and according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 75% chance of a La Niña forming by the end of this year.
What happened during the last one?
The most recent La Niña weather pattern began in mid-2010 and continued until 2012. In 2011, Thailand was hammered by three times its average rainfall. More than 75% of the country's provinces saw flooding, which led to more than $40 billion in damage and the deaths of 815 people. In 2010, the system also brought flooding rains to Queensland, Australia, causing 33 deaths and more than $1.7 billion in damages. "The higher sea surface temperature acts like an additional fuel to storms, and the elevated sea level increases the risk of storm surge, coastal erosion and flooding," says Santoso. "These are the kind of catastrophes that exert significant damage to properties and claim lives."
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Another right in Indo with some guests of a chartered boat enjoying themselves. It's good to be the king.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
A-OK
Representing Lochte
Discovered 2,871 Surfing Spots and Counting
