Back on track.
SURF:
Winter typically means stormy weather and big surf. For the start to our winter, November had good surf but the weather was sunny (not complaining). December on the other hand had weak storms and weak surf. And now January seems to be on track- lots of rain (especially up north) and a solid NW swell arrived today. About time.
Most spots around town were overhead with sets a few feet overhead in SD. Two problems though- massive tide swings today- close to 7' this morning and down to -1.5' late this afternoon AND the S wind picked up mid-morning from the building storm. You really had to plan your session accordingly. The NW peaked today and is on it's way down tomorrow. Look for head high sets and junky NW winds as the storm exits our region on Friday. Saturday is clean but only chest high.
New NW starts to fill in though Sunday afternoon for shoulder high waves and light winds.
Water temps are holding in the high 50's and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, up to 6' mid-morning, and down to -1' at sunset.
FORECAST:
Monday the NW peaks with shoulder high+ waves and good conditions hold. Tuesday/Wednesday look small but rideable in the waist to chest high zone then things get interesting the 2nd half of the week.
Models show the jet stream lowering and we may get some of those storms Nor-Cal received last week. Regardless, we should get some surf too. If the storm takes aim at southern California, we may see double overhead sets- but stormy around Thursday. That should last through the weekend as a 2nd smaller back up storm fills in behind the main one. Hold your hats and break out the mini-guns.
WEATHER:
The rain has been relentless. Nothing like San Francisco but enough to make my lawn muddy. Maybe it's time I turned off my sprinklers. Today we received close to 1/2" and Big Bear received almost 1' of snow. Showers should end tonight and we dry out over the weekend through next Wednesday. As mentioned above, models show the storm track lowering and we may get real wind and rain towards Thursday. That should last through next weekend. If correct, we could see 1-2" of rain which would put us around 8" so far for the year- almost our average of 10"- with 3 more months of the rainy season left. Not too shabby. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at
Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Late Sunday/early Monday with new fun NW and nice conditions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Last week I talked about the atmospheric river which has been relentless in dumping rain/snow up north. We haven't been doing too bad either as we've had rain off and on for the past month in southern California. This is what we have so far:
-Newport Beach: 7.46", 135% of normal
-Oceanside: 6.13", 118% of normal
-San Diego: 5.44", 140% of normal
So what gives with all the rain? Is El Nino finally here? Wasn't I touting dry 'La Nina' conditions this winter?! First, let's have a look at the difference between El Nino and La Nina as it relates to the west coast of the US.
El Nino's typically have the jet stream dip south and take aim at the southern half of the US with torrential rains while the northern half is drier than normal.
In La Nina years, we normally get wetter than normal conditions up north while down here is our famous drought. As we currently stand, we actually are in the midst of a La Nina. The soggy northern portions of the west coast are in line for a La Nina- but why are we above average in rainfall down here? The answer is that we're JUST on the edge of the wet vs. dry border. Luckily for us, we're on the wet side and everything could change in a moment's notice and we move back to the dry side. But for the time being, we're on the favorable side of the precipitation. Long range climate models are showing we're starting to move away from La Nina and may transition to neutral conditions this summer (neither La Nina nor El Nino) and some models are hinting at El Nino returning this winter! I'm laughing at that one since we were supposed to feel the effects of a wet El Nino here in 2015 and 2016- and that didn't happen of course. But since this winter was forecasted to be a dry La Nina and we're just on the dividing line between wet/dry (and luckily we're getting the wet portion)- I'm guessing anything can happen.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Is this thing even rideable? If the answer is yes, would you even want to ride it?!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Clean As A Whistle
Former Chargers Fan
Inventor Of The 'Hang 11'
