Brace yourself.
SURF:
Had some fun waves this past week- and fairly clean conditions too. That changed today as the first of 3 storms started to roll through our area. On Friday the surf picks up throughout the day for overhead+ waves and by the afternoon- full on gale force winds from the S and victory at sea conditions with 10'+ stormsurf. Winds are forecasted to blow 50 mph+ and DUMPING rain (more on that below). We even have a shot at a waterspout/tornado.
FORECAST:
The Sunday stormsurf peaks on Monday for out of control waves in the 12' range. Tuesday drops slightly to the 8'+ range and the weather tries to clean up too- but the water will be chocolate brown. Surf starts to drop during the week as the water and weather cleans up. By Thursday we should be in the chest high range and sunny skies.
WEATHER:
Amazing how confusing the weather is (and politics for that matter). During the last 2 winters ('14/15' and 15'/16') we braced for 'El Nino' storms that never materialized. Instead, during this year's allegedly dry 'La Nina', we're about to get walloped with 50 mph winds and up to 5" of rain. If you don't know by now, the world is unpredictable. But enough of my Chicken Little speech. Back to the topic at hand- this weekend's weather. Today we had a fast moving storm with relatively light winds and 3/4" of rain. Tomorrow morning starts off fairly calm then things pick up speed around lunchtime as the jet stream over the Pacific takes aim at southern California. Look for rain to increase in intensity during the afternoon and potentially 1-2" of rain and heavy winds pounding us tomorrow night. Models are hinting at 50 mph+ winds at the coast. We get a small break on Saturday morning as the storm exits the region; look for partly sunny skies and NW winds of 25 mph. Sunday morning things get interesting again as potentially the last storm in the series impacts the area. This last one looks to tap more tropical moisture than the previous 2 storms and we could get 2"+ of rain- along with heavy winds again. Glad I patched the holes in my roof this week. Forecast charts show maybe a 4th smaller storm for late Monday/Tuesday, but if it does come, don't expect much out of it. By Tuesday afternoon we start to get back on track with good weather and the rest of the week looks sunny and mild. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Next Friday with solid surf and good conditions finally.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
This weekend is odd in weather history. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts out a list of weather oddities from time to time and this one ranks right up there with the best of them. Reason being- this weekend’s storms have the potential to drop the most rain on us since 2010. And guess what weekend that was in 2010? Yep, you guessed it, January 18th through the 22nd. Eerie. If that wasn’t enough, during the last big El Nino of ‘92/’93, there was 2 weeks of consecutive rain in Orange County, San Diego County, and Big Bear that ended this EXACT weekend. Spooky. If that’s not creepy enough, the monster El Nino of 1969 saw OVER 4 FEET of rain fall in the local mountains DURING THIS SAME WEEKEND. Best oddity though, in 1916 (same weekend of course), heavy rains washed trees off Palomar Mountain, they floated down the San Luis Rey river, and right into the lineups of Oceanside. I’m sure the Russians have something to do with all of this. Regardless, check out the details below:
2010: A very wet and dynamic series of storms started on 1/18 and ended on 1/22. Rainfall ranged from two to four inches in the deserts, to four to eight inches west of the mountains, to six to 12 inches on the coastal slopes. Widespread flooding resulted across the region. Snowfall of 40 to 60 inches was reported at the higher resorts, with up to seven feet at the highest ski resorts. Some of the worst flash flooding occurred in the high desert on the 1/21 due to the prolonged heavy rainfall. Scores of homes and several schools sustained damage and many roads were washed out in Hesperia, Apple Valley, Victorville and Adelanto. Numerous swift water rescues were needed, one of which likely saved four teens trapped in a storm water drain. On this day a tornado went through Seal Beach and Huntington Beach causing local damage including boats in Huntington Harbor, and wind gusts reached 60 mph in San Clemente. Several waterspouts and very strong winds of 93 mph were also reported in Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. On 1/21 the surface pressure fell to an all-time record low of 29.15 inches (987.1 mb) at San Diego Lindbergh Field, the lowest since reliable pressure records began in 1880. Two deaths in Tijuana were attributed to the flooding. A tree fell onto a mobile home in Lakeside, causing one fatality on this day.
1993: This day marked the end of 14 consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Santa Ana, Escondido and Big Bear Lake, which started on 1/6. This day marked the end of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which started on 1/13. This also occurred on 2/18-2/24/2005, 2/14-2/20/1980, and 12/22-12/28/1971.
1969: Heavy rains of tropical origin began on 1/18 ended on 1/28. As much as 50 inches of rain fell at 7,700 feet. 31 inches of rain fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 15.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak, around ten inches at Banning, less than 1 inch from Indio southeast. This day was the start of nine consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Riverside which ended on 1/27. This also occurred on 2/13-2/21/1980. This day also marked the start of 11 consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Palomar Mountain, which ended on 1/29. 87 were reported dead from flooding and mud slides all over California. Scores died in traffic accidents. Hundreds of homes and buildings were destroyed in slides, including 14 destroyed and 11 damaged homes in Mt. Baldy Village. 50 homes near Forest Home (Forest Falls) were damaged by flooding. Highways and railroads washed out. Power outages occurred. Cucamonga Creek itself caused $10 million in damage. The Mojave River took out numerous bridges and flooded farmlands in the upper desert.
1954: Heavy rain “averaged” about three inches around Upland and Rancho Cucamonga and more than four inches in the mountains on 1/18 and on this day. Floods and debris flows struck these communities and blocked or damaged roads. Debris flows at least ten feet deep in Arcadia nearly killed people and large boulders smashed into homes. These debris flows followed wildfires in the San Gabriel Mountains.
1916: Widespread heavy rains hit Southern California starting on 1/14 and ending on 1/21. 8.5 inches fell during this period in San Bernardino. 16.71 inches fell in 24 hours at Squirrel Inn (near Lake Arrowhead) on 1/16 and on 1/17, a record 24 hour rainfall for California until 1943. More than nine inches fell in two storms in the Coachella Valley. Previous storms had deposited deep snow in the mountains, adding to the runoff. Widespread flooding resulted and at least 22 died. Roofs in Chula Vista, poultry farm in Vista, boats in Coronado and Newport were damaged. Most cities were completely inundated. Pine trees from Palomar Mountain floated down the San Luis Rey River through Oceanside. The cities of Indio, Coachella and Mecca were underwater. Ontario and Redlands were isolated and roads, railroads and bridges were washed out.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Sweet home Alabama.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Tour de Force
Pardoned by Obama
Surfed the Web Last Week And Someone Wrote 'Kook' In Wax On My Computer Screen
