Thursday, September 14, 2017

THE Surf Report- Early Edition



Anyone else worried?

SURF:
Not to sound the alarm or anything, but the surf has been really mediocre lately. But you already knew that.
 
Just some small surf this week for waist high+ waves (and better towards the OC- buy you already knew that since you were watching the Trestles contest at your office when you should have been working). Our heat wave has also left the building (thankfully) and we’re in full autumn mode with WNW wind, cool days, and water temps in the low to mid-60’s. For this weekend, fall keeps on rolling with chest high sets from the S and NW on Saturday. Sunday doesn’t look promising as the NW backs off and the S is only waist high plus. Air temps may rebound slightly for the weekend but next week looks cool again (more on that below in the WEATHER section). So until then, get some fun little waves on Saturday and make sure to wear a wetsuit!

 
On a side note, there’s a couple tropical storms off Mexico today (Max and Norma) but Max has slammed into mainland Mexico this evening and Norma is forecasted to slam into Cabo this weekend. So no surf for us.
 
 
As far as the tides go, we have a 4’ high tide at sunrise, down to 2’ mid-day, and up to 5.5’ at sunset.

FORECAST:
As mentioned above, fall has started early with cool air temps, even colder water, and NW swells on the horizon.


First up is a little bump from the NW on Tuesday afternoon for chest high sets and then a reinforcement on Wednesday with shoulder high sets and maybe a head high set in SD? Hopefully? Surf backs off slightly on Thursday then another small chest high NW fills in next Friday. Still nothing big but least it’s something. And if anything changes between now and then, make sure to keep up to date at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

 
If you’ve driven by Swami’s lately, then I’m sure you’ve seen the pumpkins growing up on the hill. So fall must be ‘unofficially’ here. Or if you saw the clouds blow through yesterday and felt the chill in the air, then you really know fall is ‘unofficially’ here. OR… if you saw the Chargers lose last weekend then you REALLY know fall must be ‘unofficially’ here. For the weekend, the weather tomorrow will be cooler than usual with temps in the low 70’s and rebounds slightly Saturday/Sunday to the mid-70’s. Then another low pressure system sets up shop next week for cool conditions, clouds, and temps back to 70. Might have to clean out the ol’ fireplace soon.
 
BEST BET:
Little combo swell on Saturday or a fun NW on Wednesday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

 
If you’ve read THE Surf Report over the years, you might have noticed I’ve reported on the theory that as the earth warms, our weather will become more extreme- either bigger storms or bigger droughts. If you take California for example, we’ve had one of our worst droughts ever and on the flipside, some of our biggest snowfalls. Sure would be nice if we could even that out somehow. And as I’ve said before, regardless of your political beliefs, the earth is warmer than normal due to natural or man-made causes. So without further adieu, the New York Times recently reported on this extreme weather phenomenon. Here’s what they had to say:

Warm air can carry more water than cool air. You may understand this fact intuitively even if you don’t realize it. The greater moisture of warm air explains why your skin doesn’t get as dry in the summer and why the forests of the sweltering Amazon get a lot more precipitation than northern Canada’s forests.



About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.

Extreme rainstorms are up more than a third since the early 1980s, according to research by Kenneth Kunkel of the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.

Kunkel’s threshold for an “extreme” rainstorm varies by region, depending on how much rain a place typically receives. It’s a count of storms that would ordinarily occur only once every several years — the sort of storms that stretch a community’s capacity to cope.

The main reason these storms seem to be more frequent is the warmer earth. Gabriel Vecchi, a Princeton researcher, compares warmer air to a bigger bucket: It can carry more water from oceans and then dump that water on land.

Regular readers know that I think it’s a mistake to shy away from talking about the connection between climate change and weather. Yes, the connection can be complicated. Even as most places get more rain, for example, some dry places have suffered more droughts.

Yet human beings should be able to deal with complexity. There is overwhelming evidence that a warmer earth is altering the weather. Irma and Harvey weren’t caused by climate change, but they almost certainly would not have been so powerful if the air and the seas fueling them hadn’t been so warm.

And the rise of extreme rainstorms isn’t limited to hurricanes. “Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased,” says the latest draft of the National Climate Assessment, written by scientists who are careful not to over-claim. “There is strong evidence,” it continues, “that increased water vapor resulting from higher temperatures is the primary cause.”

Think of this as a warning. The weather around us is changing. The changes are already doing damage, and they will accelerate as the planet warms.

Just look at Florida. Irma, thank goodness, made a late turn and caused less damage than feared. Yet Florida faces problems much bigger than any one storm. The increased rain is falling into seas swollen by melted ice caps. Florida is also the country’s flattest state, barely above sea level. As a result, floods and severe “king tides” have become more common.

The city of Hallandale Beach has closed drinking wells, inundated by saltwater, as Elizabeth Kolbert has reported. In 2013, Miami Beach elected a mayor who promised to deal with floods; he ran a campaign ad that showed him getting ready to commute by kayak. In nearby Coral Gables, as Bloomberg’s Christopher Flavelle recently wrote, the mayor worries about boats ramming into the bridges because of rising canals.

Welcome to the era of extreme rain. We need to be preparing for a future that’s guaranteed to be hotter and rainier.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 
If you had a choice, would you want one of those mansions or all those overhead waves to yourself? If you’re a real surfer, I already know the answer to that question.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Trust Fund Kid
Just Got My iPhone 9
Jack Invented the Wetsuit BUT I Invented Neoprene