THE Surf Report- Early Edition

My arms are tired.

SURF:
Lots of paddling the past few days. Which is a good thing. Glad to see some waves around here. All that complaining last month seems like a distant memory.

Today we have good combo swell for head high waves and tomorrow starts off a little smaller in the chest high range.

By afternoon though, a new solid NW groundswell starts to fill in for head high waves.  The NW peaks Saturday for more head high+ surf and overhead waves in SD. On Sunday the NW backs off fairly quickly but we have new smaller SSW to keep us in chest high surf. The only question mark is a cold front moving through on Friday which may give us junky conditions with S winds. Saturday is a transition day and Sunday should have light offshores. Pick your sessions wisely.

Water temps are hovering around 67 and tides this weekend are 3’ at sunrise, up to 5.5’ mid-morning, and 0’ late afternoon.

FORECAST:

Early in the work week the NW/SW fades to the waist to chest high range then a new waist high+ NW arrives Wednesday and is reinforced with another NW for chest high sets next Friday.

Further out, models show a large storm in the Aleutians forming early next week which should give us head high NW again towards Halloween. If anything changes between now and then, keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Couple items to discuss today. First up is the weak cold front coming through on Friday for a chance of light showers and SW winds. That moves through by Saturday morning then the real story is the building high pressure and dangerous Santa Ana wind conditions. Winds could reach the coast on Sunday for 20 mph+ NE winds that last through Tuesday. Hot days will also be a concern with temps at the beach near 90 Sunday, low 90’s on Monday, and possibly mid-90’s on Tuesday. Crazy. Hopefully by Wednesday the winds back off, temps drop, and late in the week coastal low clouds return. Keep your fingers crossed the winds aren’t as strong as forecasted and the fire weather stays at bay.

BEST BET:
Saturday with nice weather, peaking head high NW, and a touch of SW. Or Sunday with mainly smaller chest high SW and light offshores.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
A few weeks ago I talked about La Nina conditions taking hold in the Pacific this fall and winter. For us here in southern California, that most likely means less big storms (i.e. smaller surf, less rain, warmer air temps). But what about the rest of the country? Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Winter Outlook today, with La Nina potentially emerging for the second year in a row as the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in.

“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”

Other factors that influence winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and is difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events along the West Coast.

The 2017 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation

•Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

•Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.

Temperature

•Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

•Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

•The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

Drought

•Despite the outlook favoring above-average precipitation this winter, drought is likely to persist in parts of the northern Plains, although improvement is anticipated farther West. 

•Elsewhere, drought could develop across scattered areas of the South, mainly in regions that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperature and precipitation will be above-, near, or below-average, and also how drought is expected to change, but do not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. While the last two winters featured above-average temperatures over much of the nation, significant snowstorms still impacted different parts of the country. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance because they depend upon the strength and track of winter storms. The U.S. Winter Outlook will be updated on November 16.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

My grandfather lives in this old world village. He started surfing that right-hander in 1938. I’m not sure where it is though- always sends me a Xmas card without a return address for some odd reason...

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Primo
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