April showers bring May Pacific power?
SURF:
Looks like we’re finally out of our dryspell. Don’t know how
long it will last but anything is better than that February to April flatness.
We’ve had fun surf the past couple weeks and it doesn’t look to stop anytime
soon. Today we had a quick shot of WNW wind/groundswell that gave best spots
overhead sets. For tomorrow the NW will be a shell of it’s former self with
only chest high waves.
On Saturday, models show a little reinforcement out of
the the NW for waist-chest high surf again- best in SD.
Turning our attention
to the southern hemisphere now, we had a small storm off Antarctica last week
which is sending more SW our way late Sunday. Expect chest high sets late in
the day. All in all a little bit of surf this weekend but nothing firing; next
week is when the fireworks start though. As far as the weather goes, low
pressure looks to be overhead this weekend (i.e. May Gray) so SW winds may kick
up early in the morning. Beware. Water temps are starting to rebound with the
SSW winds lately and are hovering at 62 degrees.
And tides this weekend are
about 4’ at breakfast, 0’ mid-afternoon, and back up to 5’ at sunset. On a side
note, for those of you keeping score, I actually rode my new SUPERbrand Black Out
step up today (shameless plug) for the first time at an undisclosed reef and
caught some good ones. The streak has ended at 15 weeks. You can stop holding
your breath now.
FORECAST:
The building SW from Sunday night will keep chugging along
with shoulder high sets in far N county by Tuesday and head high waves in the
OC.
On it’s heels is another SW, slightly bigger, by next Thursday. North
County San Diego will have head high surf and overhead waves in the OC. Models
also show a very late season (weak) cold front moving through our area towards
the end of the work week- so beware the SW winds again.
After that, there’s
another SW on the forecast charts for head high+ surf around the 21st.
And after that… is a real SW (hopefully) by the 23rd of May. If all
goes according to plan, we should have overhead+ surf for at least 3 days. All
we need is the forecast charts to hold true a few more days to make the theory
become reality. Make sure to keep up to date on the latest storm conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
As mentioned above, we have low pressure setting up shop
this weekend which will turn the May Gray up a notch and the SW winds will be
on tap earlier than normal. May even see some drizzle late Friday/early
Saturday. Mild weather returns Monday through Wednesday for a little more sun
and less SW winds but models show yet another really late season cold front
coming through for another shot of clouds/drizzle/S winds next Thursday/Friday.
So if you started to think summer started early with all that great weather
last week- think again.
BEST BET:
Most of next week- later is better- with lots of SW swells. Just
pay attention to the forecasted SW winds late in the week.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
We had our first tropical depression form today- and we’re
still 5 days from the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on
May 15th! That’s a great sign! Must mean it’s starting early and it’s
going to be bombing this summer! May even get a hurricane here in Southern
California! Now that I got your attention, let’s take a deep breath and see
what the formation of this little depression means so early in the season:
Nothing. Sure it’s a good sign, but most forecasters are claiming we’ll have a
pretty average hurricane season around here- which is better than last summer’s
below average hurricane season. And don’t expect anything like the El Nino fueled years of 2014-2016.
The official hurricane seasonal forecast from the National Hurricane Center
should come out in a couple weeks and we’ll have better clarity, but for now,
we should expect:
- · An average of 15 tropical storms with a range of 10 to 18.
- · An average of 7 hurricanes with a range of 6 to 9.
- · An average of 3 major hurricanes with a range of 2 to 5.
Now a range of 6 to 9 hurricanes- with maybe upwards of 5
storms being major- seems like a good season. Heck- that averages out to a
storm every other week from June 15th to September 15th
and once a month getting a major hurricane. But alas we know that the storms
have to be in our ‘swell window’ (i.e. not below Baja) and also moving towards
us (i.e. not headed to Hawaii) for us to get a shot of good surf. Which based
on history, doesn’t happen that frequently. But before I change my name to
Debbie Downer, let’s take a look at the hazards hurricanes present, from our
friends at NOAA:
While hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and
property, tropical storms and depression also can be devastating. The primary
hazards from tropical cyclones (which include tropical depressions, tropical
storms, and hurricanes) are storm surge flooding, inland flooding from heavy
rains, destructive winds, tornadoes, and high surf and rip currents.
Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water generated by a
storm's winds. This hazard is historically the leading cause of hurricane
related deaths in the United States. Storm surge and large battering waves can
result in large loss of life and cause massive destruction along the coast. Storm
surge can travel several miles inland, especially along bays, rivers, and
estuaries. Flooding from heavy rains is the second leading cause of fatalities
from landfalling tropical cyclones. Widespread torrential rains associated with
these storms often cause flooding hundreds of miles inland. This flooding can
persist for several days after a storm has dissipated. Winds from a hurricane
can destroy buildings and manufactured homes. Signs, roofing material, and
other items left outside can become flying missiles during hurricanes.
Tornadoes can accompany landfalling tropical cyclones. These
tornadoes typically occur in rain bands well away from the center of the storm.
Dangerous waves produced by a tropical cyclone's strong winds can pose a
significant hazard to coastal residents and mariners. These waves can cause
deadly rip currents, significant beach erosion, and damage to structures along
the coastline, even when the storm is more than a 1,000 miles offshore.
As mentioned above, we’re lucky here in California we don’t
have to deal with most of these hazards (except for large surf) because our high
pressure during the summer blocks the storms from coming our way. And our relatively
cooler waters (less than 80 degrees- optimal for storm formation) also kill
hurricanes before they can get too close. Fine with me- after seeing the amount
of devastation hurricanes wreak in the Atlantic, I’ll pass thank you.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Whenever I come across shots like this, I wonder why no one
is out. Is it bigger than it looks? Is it a once in a million swell at a non-traditional
surf spot? Did the swell sneak up on everyone overnight? Is it a swim only zone?
Is it sharky? Is it Photoshopped? Does no one surf in that darn town? Am I
overthinking it?! This is the kind of stuff that keeps me up at night.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Peace Broker
aka Nnelg W. Leahcim
Put Surf Racks On My Horse And Headed To Lemoore, Austin,
and Waco
