I’m baaaaaaack…
SURF:
Sorry for not getting THE Surf Report out last Friday. I was
um, sick. Cough, cough. Hopefully everyone found some surf though!
On that
note, it’s good to be back to normal again. After a slow February through
April, it’s nice to see waves again and sunny skies. Today we had a small NW
windswell fill in for chest high sets and that will peak tomorrow for
consistent chest high surf. High pressure sets up this weekend so the NW
windswell will start to back off to the waist high+ range and we’ll have some
background SW as well. Looking small but the high pressure will give us great
beach weather.
Water temps have rebounded nicely to 63 degrees and the tides this
weekend are 0’ at sunrise, up to 3.5’ after lunch, and down slightly to 2.5’
late in the day.
FORECAST:
After a small weekend, things start to pick up slightly
early next week.
We had a small and short storm form off New Zealand a few days
ago which will send us chest high surf late Monday into Tuesday.
There is also
a small NW windswell filling in on Tuesday and best combo spots will be chest
high plus. After that, we have more small NW windswell filling in for chest
high sets next Friday.
And if the models are correct, a solid SW swell filling
in late Saturday into Sunday. We should have head high+ waves from it Sunday
the 10th through Tuesday the 12th. After that, forecast
charts show more activity in the southern hemisphere but nothing concrete. Best
bet is that we should have more SW mid-June.
WEATHER:
As mentioned above, high pressure started setting up shop
today and we had mostly sunny skies at the beach after the low clouds burned
off by lunch. High pressure strengthens more this weekend and we should have
sun at the beaches by mid-morning, then rolling back in towards sunset. Temps
at the beaches will be in the mid-70’s while the deserts will have an early
season warm up around 110 degrees. Low pressure makes it way back down here
towards Tuesday and we’ll be stuck with June Gloom. So get out there this
weekend and work on that tan! And make sure to keep up to date on the latest conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Little combo swell Tuesday/Wednesday and hopefully solid SW
swell again next Sunday the 10th!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Know what my favorite day of the year is? May 25th!
That’s when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) comes
out with their annual hurricane forecast for the Eastern and Central Pacific.
Actually- take that back- it’s my 2nd favorite day of the year. My
wedding anniversary is my first! (Sorry about that honey). No wait- I love
Christmas Day! So the hurricane deal is like 3rd. Or maybe the birth
of my first born? Or 2nd born? How about my birthday? Wait- where
was I going with all this? Oh- hurricanes! If you’ve read my blog lately,
you’ll remember that La Nina (cold water/no rain) is fading away and we’re in a
neutral state right now- and maybe headed towards a weak El Nino (warm
water/more rain). With that prognosis, NOAA is predicting a slightly above
average hurricane season between Hawaii and Baja. Here’s what they said:
An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is
predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific
outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7
to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes. The
central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical
cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
“This outlook reflects the forecast for ENSO neutral
conditions, with a possible transition to a weak El Nino during the hurricane
season. Also, ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region are
expected to remain above-average, and vertical wind shear is predicted to be
near- or weaker-than-average,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal
hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. Bell added, “If El Nino
develops, the activity could be near the higher end of the predicted range.”
El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical
central Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also
favors more westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central
Pacific.
This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal
hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or
how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. The hurricane season begins June
1 and runs through November 30.
“It is very important to remember that it only takes one
landfalling tropical cyclone to bring major impacts to the State of Hawaii,”
said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “As
we begin this 2018 hurricane season, we advise all residents to make preparations
now, by having and practicing an emergency plan and by having 14 days of
emergency supplies on hand that will be needed if a hurricane strikes.”
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors
weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based
sensors, and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its
partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer
modeling and human expertise, which are the basis for the center’s storm track
and intensity forecasts that extend out five days.
As far as my prediction went on May 10th,
I was expecting:
· An average
of 15 tropical storms with a range of 10 to 18 (NOAA says 14-20)
· An average
of 7 hurricanes with a range of 6 to 9 (NOAA says 7-12)
· An average
of 3 major hurricanes with a range of 2 to 5 (NOAA says 3-6)
So basically NOAA is claiming we’re going to have more
storms/hurricanes than I expected (maybe 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5
major hurricanes). That’s not too bad of a summer. But of course the storms
have to be in our ‘swell window’ (i.e. not below Baja) and also moving towards
us (i.e. not headed to Hawaii) for us to get a shot of good surf. Which based
on history, doesn’t happen that frequently. But if we got surf from 1 to 2
hurricanes a month this summer AND throw in a little southern hemisphere
action, it would be pretty fun darn around here. Roughly surf every other week.
Bring it!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If you’re wondering where I was last Friday (and even if you
weren’t), I’m here to tell you that I was at a charity golf tournament hosted
by the North County Board Meeting, to benefit the Mitchell Thorp Foundation. If
you don’t know about the Mitchell Thorp Foundation, they support families whose
children suffer from life-threatening illnesses, diseases and disorders. There
was a tremendous outpouring of support from our local community and I want to give a HUGE shout out
to everyone who supported the foundation. Everything went according to plan- sunny
skies, a fun course, a sold out crowd, and good times; resulting in our best
tournament ever. Eli and the crew at Goat Hill Park did an amazing job of
keeping us on track, Board & Brew were more than generous with the best
sandwiches on the planet, and all of our sponsors went above and beyond to help
families in need through the Mitchell Thorp Foundation. In particular:
§
TITLE SPONSORS: Hanscom Alexeev & McDaniel LLP and
Incubate Ventures
§
HOLE SPONSORS:
o EPK Collection
o Agency 73
o Payroll Hub
o Michael Berg Insurance
o Bold Brew Coffee
o Electra Bicycle Co.
o First National Bank of Southern California
o Guaranteed Rate
o Hudson Rae Air
o Silvergate Bank
o Sterling Wealth Strategies
o Suga
o Flex Football
o David Taxer of Premier Properties
o EPK Collection
o Agency 73
o Payroll Hub
o Michael Berg Insurance
o Bold Brew Coffee
o Electra Bicycle Co.
o First National Bank of Southern California
o Guaranteed Rate
o Hudson Rae Air
o Silvergate Bank
o Sterling Wealth Strategies
o Suga
o Flex Football
o David Taxer of Premier Properties
§
RAFFLE SPONSORS:
o Igloo
o Gregorio's
o EPK Collection
o Cobra Golf
o Agency 73
o Pie Craft
o Vuori
o Leus Towels
o Taylor Made Golf
o Street Swings
o Famous Surf
o SUPERbrand
o Indi Golf Clubs
o Surftech
o Blast Motion
o Trinity Fitness and Performance
o Igloo
o Gregorio's
o EPK Collection
o Cobra Golf
o Agency 73
o Pie Craft
o Vuori
o Leus Towels
o Taylor Made Golf
o Street Swings
o Famous Surf
o SUPERbrand
o Indi Golf Clubs
o Surftech
o Blast Motion
o Trinity Fitness and Performance
§
SWAG BAG SPONSORS:
o North County Board Meeting
o Lululemon
o Blast Motion
o EPK Collection
o Famous Surf Supply
o Filtrate Eyewear
o Bold Brew Coffee
o Hudson Rae Air
o North County Board Meeting
o Lululemon
o Blast Motion
o EPK Collection
o Famous Surf Supply
o Filtrate Eyewear
o Bold Brew Coffee
o Hudson Rae Air
§
LUNCH SPONSOR:
o Board & Brew
o Board & Brew
Thank you again to everyone who participated. And if you’re
a surfer looking to make your community a better place, check the North County
Board Meeting at:
- North County Board Meeting website
- Twitter/North County Board Meeting
- LinkedIn/North County Board Meeting
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Part 2 of Hurricane Marie’s bounty: On the last THE Surf
Report, the Pic of the Week was a not so secret spot in the heart of LA, going
off during Hurricane Marie in the summer of 2014. Here’s another shot of Marie
firing on all cylinders, at a spot off the beaten path north of LA. Even if you
knew where this spot was AND you paddled out during Marie- the current would
have taken you to Santa Barabara within an hour. Hey- that’s faster than taking
the 101!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Bewildering
Being Called Up To The Cavs
Best Surfer Over 40, Surfer Magazine Surfer Poll, 2017
