Couldn't be happier.
SURF:
If you've been reading THE Surf Report over the years, you'll know that I think it's the end of the world when we have a flat spell for a week and when we get surf like we did the past few days... life couldn't be better!
Quite a run of surf we just had with good SW early in the week and great NW mid-week. Today the surf has backed off to the waist high range but conditions are clean.
For tomorrow afternoon we get a little bump from the NW/SW for chest high sets. Nothing big but better than nothing. That lasts into Sunday morning.
Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and tides this weekend are 5.5' at sunrise, down to 0.5' after lunch, and up again to 4' at sunset. And speaking of sunrise and sunset- don't forget it's Daylight Saving Time on Saturday night! So on Sunday, the sun will come up at 6 AM and set at 5PM. No more surfing after work but... you can finally crack it before work!
FORECAST:
Not much headed our way in the near future.
Models show a little storm in the Aleutians this weekend which may give us waist high+ NW by next Wednesday and chest high sets in SD.
Along with that, forecast charts show Tropical Storm Xavier also taking shape (or is it Baby Hurricane Xavier) forming in the next few days which may send waist high S swell around the 7th also. Both storms aren't big so don't expect more than waist to chest high surf.
Long range models don't show much from the N Pacific but the S Pacific shows a little activity; nothing in our sweet spot but best case scenario is to get more chest high SW swell towards the 13th. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
We've got nice weather in our foreseeable future as high pressure dominates the next couple of days. Look for weak offshore winds in the morning and highs in the afternoon around 75. A weak front moves by to the N on Sunday and we may get a return of low clouds/fog in the morning. By the afternoon though, we're back to sunny skies and temps around 70 at the beaches. High pressure should set up again the middle of next week and we're back to less clouds in the AM and more sunshine (I know, exciting, huh)? Long range models have been over-hyping everything this year; from waves to weather- and this morning's models for the weather is no exception- they're predicting rain next weekend! Not unusual since it will be almost mid-November by then- but seriously- our weather is amazing right now! Can't imagine real rain in the next 7 days. I'll believe it when I see it.
BEST BET:
Late Saturday/early Sunday with a little bit of SW/NW or next Wednesday with a touch of NW and maybe Baby Hurricane Xavier for more waist to chest high surf. Maybe.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Even though the weather is almost impossible to predict, there are some weather phenomenons that help give us a crystal ball into the future. Not always- but sometimes these indicators are right. Like El Nino and La Nina. The general consensus is that El Nino gives us warmer/wetter weather and La Nina the opposite- colder and drier. Like last year's La Nina- our 'rainy' season is defined by the National Weather service from October 1st to September 30th the following year. So in the case of the rainy season we just had, it was from October 1st, 2017 to September 20th, 2018. Basically the bulk of our rain falls from December to March so it's just easier to keep track of our 'wet' season. So with that said, how did we fair with La Nina? Exactly what you thought:
- Santa Ana: 2.66". 20% of normal
- Oceanside: 5.68". 55% of normal
- San Diego: 3.34". 32% of normal
Ouch. So where does that rank in the last 50 years for San Diego? 2nd driest (only to 2002's 3.30"). As I mentioned above, weather is impossible to predict. After some dry seasons in our past, we rebound with above average rain the following season. Other seasons... we stay dry for a number of years. What's good for us though is that models are trending towards a slight El Nino this season- so hopefully we'll make up the deficit with slightly more than our 10" of rain we should expect to get. So now that we're just over a month into our current season, how are we looking so far? Well, with the couple early showers we received last month, we sit at around 0.50", which is 97% of normal- pretty much on track. We still have 11 months to go this season so keep your fingers crossed!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This wave is a mirage. All done with smoke and mirrors. Or Photoshop. Or just a figment of your imagination (what is a figment exactly)? Anyway, I'm pretty sure this isn't real. Right? Too good to be true? Not even worth looking at...
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Honorable
I Like To Party
World's Best Vegetarian Surfer (aka The Greatest Surfer Of All Thyme)
