THE Surf Report

I'm activating the Emergency Boardriding System. God bless America! 

SURF:
Whoever said patience is a virtue obviously didn't surf. I'm not a big fan of small swells and overcast conditions (but who is), so it's been a pleasure to watch the forecast models this past week and finally see the potential for solid surf. But before I get too far ahead of myself, let's talk about the surf for the upcoming weekend. We've got a little background SW/NW for waist high+ surf today (and better towards the OC from the SW swell). For tomorrow the NW windswell will pick up a touch to the waist high+ range with chest high sets towards SD. 

And on Sunday, tropical storm Alvin may give the OC some chest high sets. The good news is that we'll have plenty of sun once the morning low clouds burn off and because of that, our water temps will warm up to the high 60's. Not the biggest surf this weekend but we'll finally have great weather and warm water. 

Speaking of warm water, we're at 67 degrees this morning and may warm up to 70 by Sunday (towards SD). AND... if the sun's out, it may be time for a jacket and boardies in the afternoons. And here's more info to plan your weekend:

Tides this weekend are:

• 3' at sunrise
• 2' after lunch
• 6' at sunset

And speaking of sunset, daylight hours this weekend are already getting shorter since the longest day of the year was last week. But, there's still over 14 hours of daylight to get a session in:

• 5:45 AM sunrise  
• 8:00 PM sunset  

FORECAST:
After a small but sunny weekend, we start to see some REAL waves on the horizon- and that's when we activate the Emergency Boardriding System. 

New SW swell fills in on Monday for chest high surf and peaks on Tuesday for shoulder high sets. 

Wednesday backs off to the chest high range and the 4th of July has consistent chest high surf from soon to be Hurricane Barbara. If the models hold up, the OC should have head high+ surf by Friday the 5th. 

On Barbara's heels is a major storm taking shape off Antarctica this weekend which would give us well overhead SW swell starting on the 5th and lasting through the 7th. 

AND THEN... models show Hurricane Cosme forming off Mainland Mexico next week which would give us chest high+ surf again in north county SD and overhead surf in the OC around the 10th. So waiting patiently this past month may actually pay off for us. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Great weather this weekend (after the clouds burn off) will give us our 1st real taste of summer. Look for temps in the mid to high 70's at the beaches and a typical afternoon sea breeze. By the middle of next week, the clouds may linger at the coast a little longer (unfortunate for the 4th of July) but we still should see a little sun late in the day. All in all the usual weather around here for late June/early July. The only thing to watch out for is what the moisture from Alvin, Barbara, and Cosme do once they start breaking up...

BEST BET:
Where do I start? Seriously. Maybe Tuesday with new fun SW swell, July 5th compliments of Hurricane Barbara, next Saturday with solid SW swell, or the 10th of July if Hurricane Cosme comes together. And did I tell you we should be wearing trunks and a jacket by then?!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

On this day in history, a heat wave on the order of a 20 year event enveloped the West and Southern California from this day to 6/30. Death Valley hit the highest U.S. June temperature ever recorded: 129°. Do you even know how hot that is?! Let's just say that 90 degrees is hot and is uncomfortable if you're doing any type of physical exertion outside. Now add 40 more degrees to that. You heard me right. 

And if you're wondering, Death Valley famously holds the record for hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth of 134 degrees on July 10, 1913. Is that even possible? Maybe I shouldn't complain then when it's cloudy and 65 degrees for months on end here in San Diego (which happens to be almost 70 degrees cooler than Death Valley's record. Yikes). And if you're wondering, the hottest temperature ever recorded in San Diego is 111 degrees, which occurred on September 26, 1963. 

Also on June 28th in weather history, Palm Springs and Thermal reached 122°, which tied or set new June records and came within one degree of the all-time highest temperature on record on this day. Also on 6/29 in Borrego Springs it was 120°, two degrees off the highest all-time.

And while we're on the subject of extremes, the coldest temperature ever recorded on earth was at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica on 21 July, 1983 with a mind blowing -129 degrees. That's a 263 degree difference between Death Valley's 134 degree record high. (And the coldest it's ever been in California was at Boca with a numbing -45 degrees on January 20th, 1935). 

And the temperatures on Saturday in San Diego are supposed to be 62 degrees for the low and 77 for the high. Perfect. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Hoping to see some of this in the near future.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Unstoppable
Have A Pet Bald Eagle Named Uncle Sam
Found Out The Raging Bull Was Really Born In Pamplona And Not Cronulla

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I'm back! 

SURF:

You didn't miss anything though. Surf has been the same for pretty much all of spring- consistent clouds at the beach and little SW swell. The first day of summer (tomorrrow, duh) starts off again with clouds in the AM and small surf. 

As luck would have it, a new S starts to show in the afternoon with chest high sets along with some small NW windswell. That holds into Saturday. We should also see a little sunshine at the beaches too Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, both swells are on their way down to the waist high+ range and nice beach weather again. 

Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and with a little sun this weekend, maybe high 60's by Sunday afternoon. And here's more info to plan your weekend:

Tides this weekend are:

• 1' at sunrise
• 0' at 8 AM
• 3.5' at 3 PM
• 1' at sunset

And speaking of sunset, daylight hours this weekend are:

• 5:40 AM sunrise  
• 8:00 PM sunset  

And since the longest day of the year is Friday, the days will start getting shorter on Saturday! Bummer. 

FORECAST:

Monday starts off slow with just background waist high sets from the S but then a new fun SW builds late in the day on Tuesday for inconsistent chest high surf. By Wednesday it's consistent chest high waves (bigger towards the OC) and then new NW fills in on Thursday for shoulder high combo waves. 

Further out, models show a good storm forming off Antarctica in a few days which could give us head high+ surf (finally) around July 1st. 

We may also see our 1st hurricane off Baja around that time too- but forecast charts have it moving due W away from us but we're still a ways out- so a lot could change between now and then. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

We may finally see a break in our June Gloom pattern this weekend but first... a chance of showers Friday morning... on our 1st day of summer?! Odd but not unheard of. In all honesty though, just expect some heavy drizzle and sunshine by late in the day on Friday. Saturday and Sunday should have sunny skies once the low clouds burn off mid-morning and next week may be more of the same. Hopefully the persistent clouds will go away finally and we'll have sun at the beaches in the afternoon. It's about time we saw some summer-like conditions around here.

BEST BET:
Saturday with fun but small NW/S or next Thursday with better NW/SW. And if you can wait that long (and believe the models), good SW around July 1st.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that a weak to moderate El Niño  has been hanging around this spring and will most likely last into summer. Hard to believe though with all these persistent clouds at the beach, showers well into May (and on the 1st day of summer), water temps that feel downright average, and no hurricanes in sight, it's hard to believe any of this El Niño hype. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say fear not, as our El Niño is still hanging around, and forecasters think it’s likely to stay through the summer. What happens after that is less clear, though, with about a 50% chance of El Niño continuing through the fall and winter (wouldn't that be awesome). Here's the official report:

Water temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific (i.e. between us and Hawaii- also called the Niño3.4 Index) has been cruising along between 1-2 degrees above average for several months in a row. This behavior is fairly unusual. Of the 23 El Niño winters in our historical record (dating back to 1950), nine persisted into March–May. Six of those were stronger El Niños, with the three-month-average Niño3.4 Index (the “Oceanic Niño Index” or ONI) peaking at 2.5 degrees or more above average.

Two winters, 1968–69 and 1986–87, featured a peak around 2 degrees above average and persisted into the spring. Only once before now has the ONI remained above 1 degree but less than 2 degrees above average throughout the winter and lasted into the spring: 2014–15. In that instance, March 2015 was technically the start of the great El Niño of 2015-16.  

These three cases were all followed by El Niño the next winter. The predictive value of this factoid is not large, but essentially, the ocean/atmosphere system is so complex that from year to year, even if some elements (like the ONI) look the same, there are many, many other differences. These differences mean that conditions will develop differently, leading to unique futures. Basically it would take approximately one trillion quintillion years for nature to repeat itself!

So what has more predictive power? To develop the most complete picture of how conditions in the tropical Pacific might develop over the next several months, ENSO forecasters study current conditions and dynamical and statistical computer models. Near-term, one of the conditions we look at is how the winds near the surface of the tropical Pacific—the trade winds—are behaving. The trade winds normally blow steadily east-to-west, keeping warm water piled up near Indonesia. When they slow down, that warm water can begin to slide eastward under the surface—a downwelling Kelvin wave—transferring warmer waters to the east. This warm wave eventually rises to the surface, reinforcing the El Niño. Throughout most of May, the trade winds were weaker than average.

The effect of these weaker winds can be seen in the recent increase of warmer-than-average water under the surface of the tropical Pacific, as a new downwelling Kelvin wave has formed. (But not a Kelvin wave of cinematic proportions.) The sea surface temperature across much of the tropical Pacific is still warmer than average, with the Niño3.4 Index coming in at 1 degree above average during May. 

Over the next few months, this Kelvin wave will likely (66% chance!) supply the surface with the warmer-than-average water required to continue El Niño through the summer. Since the end of May, the trade winds have strengthened, and for an idea of the longer term, we can look to computer models. Overall, the models in the current forecast predict that the Niño3.4 Index will stay near to slightly above the El Niño threshold 1 degree warmer than average. Some models are in the ENSO-neutral range, around average. It’s interesting that nearly all of the models remain between 0 and 1 degree above average through the fall and into the winter; this level of agreement between the models would usually contribute to more confidence in the forecast. However, the mix of predictions above and below the El Niño threshold means that, while El Niño is the favorite for next winter, forecasters are giving it only a 50% chance at this point.

Long story short, our water temps are still slightly above average which will mean more boardshort time this summer, a chance of slightly better hurricanes, and maybe a slightly more active winter storm season (again).

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Not the biggest but pretty darn close to being the best.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Top Dog

Pretty Sure I Was Part Of That Anthony Davis Trade Somehow

1st One To Pull A 900 In Snowboarding, Skateboarding, And Surfing

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Let's get rid of these clouds and start summer already! 

SURF:
Had a little background SW swell this week for chest high+ surf and overcast conditions (but I've seen the month of June now 49 times so all the low clouds shouldn't come as a surprise). For tomorrow, the SW swell will drop to the waist high range with inconsistent chest high sets towards the OC and the NW windswell will start to pick up in the afternoon to keep us in waist to chest high surf. On Saturday, the NW windswell peaks with chest high sets and we'll have small remnant SW swell. 

On Sunday the NW backs off while new chest high sets appear from the S. All in all some small but rideable surf this weekend.

Water temps are starting to slowly creep up, now that we have SSW winds, and are hovering around 64. And if you're wondering when we'll hit the 'boardshort' threshold of 70 degrees, that usually happens around the 1st week of July- so we've got a month to go. And here's more numbers for you to chew on:

Tides this weekend are:

• 1' at sunrise
• -0.25' at 9 AM
• 4.25' at 4 PM
• 2.25' at sunset

Daylight hours this weekend are:

• 5:40 AM sunrise  
• 7:55 PM sunset  

FYI- longest day of the year is June 21st in which the sun in San Diego rises at 5:40 AM and sets at 8:00 PM (if there's no June Gloom of course). 

FORECAST:
The slow rise in S swell from Sunday continues into Monday with chest high surf. That peaks on Tuesday with more chest high+ waves and the OC seeing a rogue shoulder high set. 

The 2nd half of next week looks a little small and slow before the potential of shoulder high SW arrives next weekend. Nothing big on the horizon but still fun. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

June Gloom is living up to it's name but I'll take that over showers and junky conditions. Looks like high pressure will build this weekend inland but it may trap the low clouds at the coast, so partial clearing may be our best hope on the sand. The sun could peak out here and there but it all depends what high pressure does the next few days. There could be sun at the immediate coast or there may not be. Let's just say there won't be and hopefully we're pleasantly surprised. The cat and mouse game will last into early next week before the clouds thicken up again late next week. If this truly is an El Nino year, it's need to kick into gear for summer! 

BEST BET:
Tuesday with peaking S swell or late next weekend with better SW if the models hold true. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Speaking of El Niño, I'm pretty sure our rainy winter season is over. Pretty sure. But regardless, the El Nino fueled storms the past few months really put a dent in our decade long drought. Here's where we currently stand with our rain to date (FYI- season is October 1 to September 30th so we MAY get a couple showers here and there this summer from tropical systems but it won't change much of the numbers below):

• Newport Beach: 18.01" so far (normal is 13.3"). That's roughly 135% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 2.79" last season.
• Oceanside: 14.96" so far (normal is 13.06"). That's roughly 110% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 4.93" last season.
• San Diego: 12.81" so far (normal is 10.39"). That's roughly 125% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 3.32" last season.

Speaking of El Niño again, the Climate Prediction Center finally came out with their eastern Pacific hurricane outlook (i.e. the ones that form off Baja/Mainland Mexico) for the summer and it was worth the wait. The official prognosis is:

A 70% chance of an above-normal season. There is a 20% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. (The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W north of the equator).

The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 15-22 Named Storms
• 8-13 Hurricanes
• 4-8 Major Hurricanes

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 100%-180% of the median. ACE is a way to measure energy from the maximum sustained surface winds (measured every 6 hours) for all named storms while at least tropical storm strength. So if we're 100-180% above the median, look for some strong hurricanes this summer. 

The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years. These predicted ranges are centered above the 1981-2010 averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th.

Two climate factors are expected to contribute to a stronger hurricane season across the eastern (and central, i.e. Hawaii) Pacific hurricane basin. These factors include El Niño and above average sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central tropical North Pacific. These conditions are already in place, and are expected to continue through the peak months of the hurricane season (July-September).

The most recent forecast indicates about a 60% chance of El Niño during the summer. The latest model forecasts predict a weak- or moderate-strength El Niño during this period, which means there is some uncertainty as to how much El Niño will enhance the hurricane season. Long story short, look for a hurricane season similar to last summer which was pretty fun around here. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what waves look like when there's no June Gloom. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Pretty Confident
Was Kawhi's Roommate At SDSU
Been Asked To Coach The US Olympic Surf Team