I'm back!
SURF:
You didn't miss anything though. Surf has been the same for pretty much all of spring- consistent clouds at the beach and little SW swell. The first day of summer (tomorrrow, duh) starts off again with clouds in the AM and small surf.
As luck would have it, a new S starts to show in the afternoon with chest high sets along with some small NW windswell. That holds into Saturday. We should also see a little sunshine at the beaches too Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, both swells are on their way down to the waist high+ range and nice beach weather again.
Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and with a little sun this weekend, maybe high 60's by Sunday afternoon. And here's more info to plan your weekend:
Tides this weekend are:
FORECAST:
Monday starts off slow with just background waist high sets from the S but then a new fun SW builds late in the day on Tuesday for inconsistent chest high surf. By Wednesday it's consistent chest high waves (bigger towards the OC) and then new NW fills in on Thursday for shoulder high combo waves.
We may finally see a break in our June Gloom pattern this weekend but first... a chance of showers Friday morning... on our 1st day of summer?! Odd but not unheard of. In all honesty though, just expect some heavy drizzle and sunshine by late in the day on Friday. Saturday and Sunday should have sunny skies once the low clouds burn off mid-morning and next week may be more of the same. Hopefully the persistent clouds will go away finally and we'll have sun at the beaches in the afternoon. It's about time we saw some summer-like conditions around here.
BEST BET:
Saturday with fun but small NW/S or next Thursday with better NW/SW. And if you can wait that long (and believe the models), good SW around July 1st.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Water temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific (i.e. between us and Hawaii- also called the Niño3.4 Index) has been cruising along between 1-2 degrees above average for several months in a row. This behavior is fairly unusual. Of the 23 El Niño winters in our historical record (dating back to 1950), nine persisted into March–May. Six of those were stronger El Niños, with the three-month-average Niño3.4 Index (the “Oceanic Niño Index” or ONI) peaking at 2.5 degrees or more above average.
Two winters, 1968–69 and 1986–87, featured a peak around 2 degrees above average and persisted into the spring. Only once before now has the ONI remained above 1 degree but less than 2 degrees above average throughout the winter and lasted into the spring: 2014–15. In that instance, March 2015 was technically the start of the great El Niño of 2015-16.
These three cases were all followed by El Niño the next winter. The predictive value of this factoid is not large, but essentially, the ocean/atmosphere system is so complex that from year to year, even if some elements (like the ONI) look the same, there are many, many other differences. These differences mean that conditions will develop differently, leading to unique futures. Basically it would take approximately one trillion quintillion years for nature to repeat itself!
So what has more predictive power? To develop the most complete picture of how conditions in the tropical Pacific might develop over the next several months, ENSO forecasters study current conditions and dynamical and statistical computer models. Near-term, one of the conditions we look at is how the winds near the surface of the tropical Pacific—the trade winds—are behaving. The trade winds normally blow steadily east-to-west, keeping warm water piled up near Indonesia. When they slow down, that warm water can begin to slide eastward under the surface—a downwelling Kelvin wave—transferring warmer waters to the east. This warm wave eventually rises to the surface, reinforcing the El Niño. Throughout most of May, the trade winds were weaker than average.
Tides this weekend are:
- 1' at sunrise
- 0' at 8 AM
- 3.5' at 3 PM
- 1' at sunset
- 5:40 AM sunrise
- 8:00 PM sunset
And since the longest day of the year is Friday, the days will start getting shorter on Saturday! Bummer.
FORECAST:
Monday starts off slow with just background waist high sets from the S but then a new fun SW builds late in the day on Tuesday for inconsistent chest high surf. By Wednesday it's consistent chest high waves (bigger towards the OC) and then new NW fills in on Thursday for shoulder high combo waves.
Further out, models show a good storm forming off Antarctica in a few days which could give us head high+ surf (finally) around July 1st.
We may also see our 1st hurricane off Baja around that time too- but forecast charts have it moving due W away from us but we're still a ways out- so a lot could change between now and then. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
WEATHER:
We may finally see a break in our June Gloom pattern this weekend but first... a chance of showers Friday morning... on our 1st day of summer?! Odd but not unheard of. In all honesty though, just expect some heavy drizzle and sunshine by late in the day on Friday. Saturday and Sunday should have sunny skies once the low clouds burn off mid-morning and next week may be more of the same. Hopefully the persistent clouds will go away finally and we'll have sun at the beaches in the afternoon. It's about time we saw some summer-like conditions around here.
BEST BET:
Saturday with fun but small NW/S or next Thursday with better NW/SW. And if you can wait that long (and believe the models), good SW around July 1st.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I mentioned a couple weeks ago that a weak to moderate El Niño has been hanging around this spring and will most likely last into summer. Hard to believe though with all these persistent clouds at the beach, showers well into May (and on the 1st day of summer), water temps that feel downright average, and no hurricanes in sight, it's hard to believe any of this El Niño hype. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say fear not, as our El Niño is still hanging around, and forecasters think it’s likely to stay through the summer. What happens after that is less clear, though, with about a 50% chance of El Niño continuing through the fall and winter (wouldn't that be awesome). Here's the official report:
Water temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific (i.e. between us and Hawaii- also called the Niño3.4 Index) has been cruising along between 1-2 degrees above average for several months in a row. This behavior is fairly unusual. Of the 23 El Niño winters in our historical record (dating back to 1950), nine persisted into March–May. Six of those were stronger El Niños, with the three-month-average Niño3.4 Index (the “Oceanic Niño Index” or ONI) peaking at 2.5 degrees or more above average.
Two winters, 1968–69 and 1986–87, featured a peak around 2 degrees above average and persisted into the spring. Only once before now has the ONI remained above 1 degree but less than 2 degrees above average throughout the winter and lasted into the spring: 2014–15. In that instance, March 2015 was technically the start of the great El Niño of 2015-16.
These three cases were all followed by El Niño the next winter. The predictive value of this factoid is not large, but essentially, the ocean/atmosphere system is so complex that from year to year, even if some elements (like the ONI) look the same, there are many, many other differences. These differences mean that conditions will develop differently, leading to unique futures. Basically it would take approximately one trillion quintillion years for nature to repeat itself!
So what has more predictive power? To develop the most complete picture of how conditions in the tropical Pacific might develop over the next several months, ENSO forecasters study current conditions and dynamical and statistical computer models. Near-term, one of the conditions we look at is how the winds near the surface of the tropical Pacific—the trade winds—are behaving. The trade winds normally blow steadily east-to-west, keeping warm water piled up near Indonesia. When they slow down, that warm water can begin to slide eastward under the surface—a downwelling Kelvin wave—transferring warmer waters to the east. This warm wave eventually rises to the surface, reinforcing the El Niño. Throughout most of May, the trade winds were weaker than average.
The effect of these weaker winds can be seen in the recent increase of warmer-than-average water under the surface of the tropical Pacific, as a new downwelling Kelvin wave has formed. (But not a Kelvin wave of cinematic proportions.) The sea surface temperature across much of the tropical Pacific is still warmer than average, with the Niño3.4 Index coming in at 1 degree above average during May.
Over the next few months, this Kelvin wave will likely (66% chance!) supply the surface with the warmer-than-average water required to continue El Niño through the summer. Since the end of May, the trade winds have strengthened, and for an idea of the longer term, we can look to computer models. Overall, the models in the current forecast predict that the Niño3.4 Index will stay near to slightly above the El Niño threshold 1 degree warmer than average. Some models are in the ENSO-neutral range, around average. It’s interesting that nearly all of the models remain between 0 and 1 degree above average through the fall and into the winter; this level of agreement between the models would usually contribute to more confidence in the forecast. However, the mix of predictions above and below the El Niño threshold means that, while El Niño is the favorite for next winter, forecasters are giving it only a 50% chance at this point.
Long story short, our water temps are still slightly above average which will mean more boardshort time this summer, a chance of slightly better hurricanes, and maybe a slightly more active winter storm season (again).
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Not the biggest but pretty darn close to being the best.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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