Let's get rid of these clouds and start summer already!
SURF:
Had a little background SW swell this week for chest high+ surf and overcast conditions (but I've seen the month of June now 49 times so all the low clouds shouldn't come as a surprise). For tomorrow, the SW swell will drop to the waist high range with inconsistent chest high sets towards the OC and the NW windswell will start to pick up in the afternoon to keep us in waist to chest high surf. On Saturday, the NW windswell peaks with chest high sets and we'll have small remnant SW swell.
Water temps are starting to slowly creep up, now that we have SSW winds, and are hovering around 64. And if you're wondering when we'll hit the 'boardshort' threshold of 70 degrees, that usually happens around the 1st week of July- so we've got a month to go. And here's more numbers for you to chew on:
Tides this weekend are:
- 1' at sunrise
- -0.25' at 9 AM
- 4.25' at 4 PM
- 2.25' at sunset
Daylight hours this weekend are:
- 5:40 AM sunrise
- 7:55 PM sunset
FYI- longest day of the year is June 21st in which the sun in San Diego rises at 5:40 AM and sets at 8:00 PM (if there's no June Gloom of course).
FORECAST:
The slow rise in S swell from Sunday continues into Monday with chest high surf. That peaks on Tuesday with more chest high+ waves and the OC seeing a rogue shoulder high set.
WEATHER:
June Gloom is living up to it's name but I'll take that over showers and junky conditions. Looks like high pressure will build this weekend inland but it may trap the low clouds at the coast, so partial clearing may be our best hope on the sand. The sun could peak out here and there but it all depends what high pressure does the next few days. There could be sun at the immediate coast or there may not be. Let's just say there won't be and hopefully we're pleasantly surprised. The cat and mouse game will last into early next week before the clouds thicken up again late next week. If this truly is an El Nino year, it's need to kick into gear for summer!
BEST BET:
Tuesday with peaking S swell or late next weekend with better SW if the models hold true.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Speaking of El Niño, I'm pretty sure our rainy winter season is over. Pretty sure. But regardless, the El Nino fueled storms the past few months really put a dent in our decade long drought. Here's where we currently stand with our rain to date (FYI- season is October 1 to September 30th so we MAY get a couple showers here and there this summer from tropical systems but it won't change much of the numbers below):
- Newport Beach: 18.01" so far (normal is 13.3"). That's roughly 135% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 2.79" last season.
- Oceanside: 14.96" so far (normal is 13.06"). That's roughly 110% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 4.93" last season.
- San Diego: 12.81" so far (normal is 10.39"). That's roughly 125% of normal. For comparison's sake, we were only at 3.32" last season.
Speaking of El Niño again, the Climate Prediction Center finally came out with their eastern Pacific hurricane outlook (i.e. the ones that form off Baja/Mainland Mexico) for the summer and it was worth the wait. The official prognosis is:
A 70% chance of an above-normal season. There is a 20% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. (The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W north of the equator).
The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
- 15-22 Named Storms
- 8-13 Hurricanes
- 4-8 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 100%-180% of the median. ACE is a way to measure energy from the maximum sustained surface winds (measured every 6 hours) for all named storms while at least tropical storm strength. So if we're 100-180% above the median, look for some strong hurricanes this summer.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th.
Two climate factors are expected to contribute to a stronger hurricane season across the eastern (and central, i.e. Hawaii) Pacific hurricane basin. These factors include El Niño and above average sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central tropical North Pacific. These conditions are already in place, and are expected to continue through the peak months of the hurricane season (July-September).
The most recent forecast indicates about a 60% chance of El Niño during the summer. The latest model forecasts predict a weak- or moderate-strength El Niño during this period, which means there is some uncertainty as to how much El Niño will enhance the hurricane season. Long story short, look for a hurricane season similar to last summer which was pretty fun around here.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is what waves look like when there's no June Gloom.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Pretty Confident
Was Kawhi's Roommate At SDSU
Been Asked To Coach The US Olympic Surf Team
