THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Big weekend ahead- and beyond- so let's get to it...

SURF:

I'm going to cut to the chase. Not much surf this past week but great weather AND the water temps finally stayed about 70 degrees!

For this weekend we've got fun SW swell filling in tomorrow along with smaller NW windswell. Friday will start off slow with the low tide but by sunset we should have chest high surf. That continues all weekend. The OC will have a couple shoulder high sets from the SW and water temps are hovering around 73 degrees (beware the NW windswell over the weekend though- it may drop our water temps). Along with good weather the next few days, should be a fun Labor Day weekend.

And here's more numbers to crunch:

Tides this weekend are:

• 0' at sunrise
• 5.5' before lunch
• 3' at sunset

And here's the sunrise and sunset. (We officially have less than 11 hours of daylight now. Winter is coming in quick kids!):

• 6:23 AM sunrise  
• 7:19 PM sunset  

FORECAST:

After a long fun weekend, the SW backs off and we get an early season small NW mid-week for waist high+ waves in north county SD and chest high in SD.

After that, we get another fun chest high swell with shoulder high sets next Saturday/Sunday.

And on the heels of the storm that created this swell is a stronger pulse, that if the models hold up, should send us head high+ SW swell around the 10th with the odd overhead set (and bigger in the OC). This should be one of the better swells this summer. Jinx! If anything changes between now and then though, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Shaping up to be a nice Labor Day weekend around here. We've got a nice late summer day on tap on Friday after the morning low clouds burn off and we finally get a surge of monsoon moisture this weekend. Look for big puffy cumulus clouds to build over the mountains/deserts Saturday through Monday with the odd cloud drifting towards the beaches. Humidities and temps will rise slightly at the beaches too. Good time for a bbq. Things should return to normal the 2nd half of next week with more low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings.

BEST BET:
A bounty of riches- Saturday with fun SW/NW swells. Or next weekend with better SW swells. OR... the 10th of September with overhead SW swell?...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Since it's been boring weather-wise around here this summer, I thought it was time to break out "This Day In Weather History!" (Just trying to help you kill 15 minutes at work on a Friday):

2013: Thunderstorms struck Riverside and the San Bernardino Mountains where over one inch of rain fell in 20 minutes. Riverside was inundated with flooding of streets up to two feet deep. Riverside City College canceled classes. Flash floods occurred around the Perris area and along Highway 18 in the San Bernardino Mountains. Severe thunderstorm winds estimated at 70 mph hit Riverside and toppled trees there.

2000: Thunderstorms hit the desert with 1.5 inches of rain in only 45 minutes and wind gusts to 61 mph at Borrego Springs. Flash flooding resulted, with mud in homes and damaged roads in the Borrego Springs area. Flash floods, mud and debris covered roads from Yucca Valley to Palm Springs and Oasis.

1998: Strong thunderstorms developed each day starting on this day and ending on 8/31. 1.5 inches of rain fell at Apple Valley, 0.77 inch fell in only 45 minutes at Wrightwood, and 0.68 inch fell in only 30 minutes at Forest Falls. Homes and roads were flooded with four to six feet of water in Hesperia and Apple Valley. Rock slides occurred in Mill Creek. Roads were flooded in Sugarloaf and Forest Falls. Flash flooding was also recorded in Hemet. Severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 86 mph hit Sage (south of Hemet). Gusts of 50 mph were recorded at Rialto and gusts of 45 mph hit San Marcos. Trees and power lines were downed. Record heat occurred near the coast as well on these same days. Temperatures hit 114° in Dulzura, 112° in Yorba Linda and the Wild Animal Park, 110° in El Cajon, Hemet and Riverside, 108° in Ramona, 106° in Vista and Escondido, and over 100° in most of Orange County.

1993: A severe thunderstorm in the Imperial Valley produced an F1 tornado near Calipatria. Power lines were downed and the roof was partially torn from a school building.

1974: It was 92° in Big Bear Lake, the highest temperature on record for August. This also occurred on 8/8/1981 and on 8/25/1985.

1972: Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West Longitude before recurving to the northeast. The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego on the 9/3 with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains from this day to 9/6. This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California. This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73. Only 0.44 inch was measured in San Diego.

1951: A tropical storm moving north northwestward just off the west coast of Baja California moved northeastward into northern Baja California and dissipated. Moisture from this tropical cyclone resulted in rainfall of two to five inches in the mountains and deserts starting on 8/27 and ending on this day. Many roads were washed out in the Imperial Valley, but otherwise no major damage occurred. This occurred during the El Niño of 1951-52.

1942: It was 36° in Palomar Mountain, the lowest temperature on record for August.

1895: The low temperature was 54° in San Diego, the lowest temperature on record for August.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The right in the foreground not that enticing? Just keep walking up the beach. I'm sure you'll find something to your liking.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Fly Guy
Still Using My iPhone 2
Went To The Doctor For A Physical And He Told Me I Have 1 Regular Foot And 1 Goofy Foot

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Our odd summer continues. 

SURF:

Had mostly small SW this past week with cold water temps and fog hugging the coast due to NW winds. Today NW windswell decided to join the party, new SW filled in, the winds switched to SW, and our water climbed back up to the high 60's. Are you writing all this down? There'll be a quiz later. For tomorrow look for the NW to continue, the SW to peak, and hopefully... our water temps to hit 70 again. With the combination of swells, most beaches will have chest high waves and best spots will hit shoulder high sets. Both swells will back down on Saturday for waist high+ surf and chest high waves in the OC. 

Luckily for us, new SW shows up on Sunday afternoon ALONG with small S swell from Hurricane Ivo. Ivo isn't a big storm- Category 1 with 80 mph winds- but he is headed straight towards us. Look for shoulder high sets Sunday evening and nice weather. All in all- fun tomorrow, small Saturday, and better Sunday.

And here's more info to mull over:

Tides this weekend are pretty mellow:

• 3' at sunrise
• 5' at dinner

And here's the sunrise and sunset. (With clear skies, you can probably still surf until 8 PM?):

• 6:17 AM sunrise  
• 7:27 PM sunset  

FORECAST:

Ivo and the SW groundswell hold into Monday morning for more shoulder high surf then it takes a nose dive to the waist high range on Tuesday. 

Models show a couple small storms forming off Antarctica and New Zealand this weekend which may give us waist to chest high surf around Wedensday the 28th. After that, the southern hemisphere takes a breather and we'll be left with small NW windswell next weekend- just in time for Labor Day Weekend! If anything changes between now and then though, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Our May Gray (or the phrase I trademarked 'August Disgust') should hang around tomorrow then back off Saturday for less clouds at the beaches and maybe some tropical clouds from dissipating Hurricane Ivo. Regardless, look for more clouds again tomorrow then more sun, a little more humidity, and temps in the mid-70's on Saturday/Sunday. Should be a great weekend. That will last into at least the 1st part of next week. 

BEST BET:

Tomorrow with fun NW/SW or late Sunday/early Monday with better S/SW swells. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So far this summer, it's seemed like a boring hurricane season- especially when compared to last year. And you're right- it's been boring compared to last year. Here's the facts:

• At this point last summer we had 14 named storms vs. 10 so far this year.
• There were SEVEN Category 2 or stronger storms at this point last year. This year? Just two...

The culprit for our sad summer? El Nino has faded away and left us in a neutral pattern. If you haven't noticed, our water temps have been around 65-70 the first few weeks of August (typically the warmest water of the year) and last summer at this time it was 75-80; a full 10 degrees warmer. So is El Nino officially done for the time being? Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had to say:

The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor neutral conditions (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

What’s on our plate?

The July Niño3.4 index, our primary index for monitoring El Nino conditions, was 0.4°C above the long-term average, falling below the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C for the first time since last September. In addition, tropical atmospheric conditions have trended toward neutral, as the cloudiness and rainfall over the Pacific were near average over the past month. The trade winds also have been near average lately, indicating that Walker circulation, which weakens during El Niño, has shown signs of rebounding.  

Based on these latest indicators from the tropical ocean and atmosphere, NOAA forecasters have declared that El Niño has ended and neutral conditions have returned. Does a return to neutral mean that average weather conditions are expected to prevail around the globe? The answer is no.  A return to neutral means that we will not get that predictable influence from El Niño or La Niña, but the atmosphere is certainly capable of wild swings without a push from either influence.  Basically, neutral means that the job of seasonal forecasters gets a bit tougher because we do not have that El Nino/La Nina influence that we potentially can predict several months in advance.           

A change to neutral could also impact the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically ramps up this time of year and peaks in early-to-mid September.  El Niño tends to produce hostile conditions for Atlantic hurricanes, so a return to neutral means  that we will not get a decisive push from El Niño to the Atlantic. Basically look for more hurricanes in the Atlantic the next few months.   

And just to drive home that neutral doesn’t necessarily mean “bland and boring,” a closer look at the weekly ocean surface temperature reveals some fascinating, wavy features over the eastern Pacific. Called tropical instability waves, these waves can produce some dramatic week-to-week swings, but their effects tend to get washed out in the monthly and seasonally averaged index. That doesn’t mean that these waves cannot impact neutral conditions though. 

What’s on the menu?

Will ENSO-neutral conditions continue through fall and winter? Similar to last month, most of the computer models we consult predict that the ocean surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific region will remain near average throughout this period. NOAA forecasters favor this outcome, predicting a 50-55% chance of neutral conditions remaining through winter.   

Is it possible for an El Niño to end in the spring or summer only to reemerge again in the following fall? Yes, it can happen. We have seen this sort of situation a few times since 1950, the latest being the reemergence of El Niño in the fall of 1977. Some forecast models favor this outcome, and forecasters consider this plausible, but not the most likely outcome, predicting a 30% chance of El Niño next fall and winter.

The current forecast underscores that we don’t have a sure bet this far in advance – there are many possible outcomes for the coming fall and winter. The forecast probabilities still give us useful information on what outcome is favored at this time. As conditions evolve, we will gather more information that will allow us to refine these probabilities and hopefully narrow the forecast uncertainty.

So what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing! Earlier this year, signs pointed to El Nino lasting through 2019 and now it's dead in the water (literally). Long story short- look for average surf, rainfall, and snow this winter. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what our water temps have felt like all summer. Remember when our water hit 80 degrees last summer? I don't either...

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Agile

Bark Is Worse Than My Bite

Perfected The 'Tow-out': I Don't Get Towed Into Waves, The Wave Drags Me Along the Reef Instead

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

El Nino, where art thou?

SURF:

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, hurricanes were in full swing, we had tropical clouds overhead, and our water temps hit the magical 80 degree mark. This year? Hurricanes are hiding, tropical clouds have turned to low clouds/fog, and we're lucky if our water temps are even 65! 

Fortunately for us, the southern hemisphere is doing the best it can to keep our spirits up and we've had some fun S swells the past few days. Today the current S swell peaked with chest to shoulder high surf (better towards the OC) and it will drop tomorrow through the weekend. Also for the weekend, we'll have small NW windswell in the background to help prop our surf up to the waist high+ range. All in all, small surf past tomorrow, so get on it ASAP! 

And here's some numbers to keep in mind:

Tides this weekend are all over the place:

• -0.5' at sunrise
• 4.5' at lunch
• 2' late afternoon
• 3' at sunset

And here's the sunrise and sunset (don't worry- we still have over 2 1/2 months left of daylight saving time):

• 6:13 AM sunrise  
• 7:34 PM sunset  

FORECAST:

Enough of the boring news, here's the good stuff: We've got a couple storms in the southern hemisphere today that will send fun to good surf our way next week. 

First up is a small storm that will start to fill in on Tuesday for chest high surf, then shoulder high+ S on Wednesday. On it's heels is a good SW swell which may give us head high+ waves finally, this time from the 23rd to the 26th. As far as the tropics go, it's dead down there. El Nino has waned and the hurricanes want nothing to do with the cooler water temps. If anything changes between now and then though, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf! 

WEATHER:

Welcome back June Gloom! Or is it May Gray? Maybe it's called August Disgust? Too harsh? Whatever it is, inland temps are in the 90-100 degree range today and the coast is a cool 70 with persistent clouds. At least it's keeping the fire weather away. Look for more of the same this weekend- but with cooler temps inland as a weak low pressure system moves by to the N. Next week things heat up again for the inland valleys/deserts as high pressure builds, while the coast has persistent low clouds and temps in the low 70's again. 

BEST BET:

Next Wednesday with fun S swell or the 24th/25th with good SW swell. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Much of the planet sweltered in unprecedented heat in July, as temperatures soared to new heights in the hottest month ever recorded. The record warmth also shrank Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to historic lows. Here's the latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The previous hottest month on record was July 2016.

Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005—with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures.

The period from January through July produced a global temperature that was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 56.9 degrees, tying with 2017 as the second-hottest year to date on record.

It was the hottest year to date for parts of North and South America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand,  the southern half of Africa, portions of the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. 

Average Arctic sea ice set a record low for July, running 19.8% below average – surpassing the previous historic low of July 2012. Average Antarctic sea-ice coverage was 4.3% below the 1981-2010 average, making it the smallest for July in the 41-year record.

And if you're looking for some cool spots: Parts of Scandinavia and western and eastern Russia had temperatures at least 2.7 degrees F below average. I'll go to Scandinavia- the rest of you can have Russia.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

First off- it's shallow. Second- it's big. Third- it shuts down on the inside. And I was going to tell you it's sharky- but everywhere nowadays is sharky- so I guess that's not scary anymore.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

So Choice

Documentary About My Life Hits Theaters Nationwide This December!

Confusing The Sharks By Wearing A Beavertail

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Another day, another shark sighting. 

SURF:

Good news: Been some fun SW swell the past few days, along with a touch of NW, that gave most areas chest high surf with shoulder high sets at best spots. Bad news: Been an odd summer to say the least. Air and water temps have been below normal, we haven't had an abundance of large swells, and there's been more shark sightings than you can shake a stick at. In the short term- that looks to be the norm. 

As today's SW swell winds down tomorrow, we've got new chest high S filling in on Saturday along with little shots of NW windswell again. Sunday may have the odd shoulder high set from the combo swells. Water temps are about 10 degrees colder than last year (due to last summer's strong El Nino) and are sitting around the 68-70 degree mark. Ps- our warmest water temps of the year occur in early August, so the high 60's/low 70's we're experiencing right now is a little cooler than expected. C'mon Neptune- show us some love! 

And here's some numbers for you to gaze upon:

Tides this weekend are:

• 3.5' at breakfast
• 2.5' at lunch
• 5.5' at sunset

And here's the sunrise and sunset (it's about 12 1/2 hours of daylight now):

• 6:08  AM sunrise  
• 7:40 PM sunset  

FORECAST:

Not much to start the work week but we have fun SW showing up around Thursday for shoulder high sets. 

After that it goes quiet again until a new SW swell arrives about a week later on the 23rd. All in all some fun SW swells showing up roughtly once a week. And models show another hurricane popping up next week- but like Erick and Flossie- it's probably headed to Hawaii. If anything changes between now and then though, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Along with the cool water temps, our air temps have been a little low too. But keeping the AC off in late summer is a good thing I guess. We've got low pressure off the Oregon coast tonight which will keep the night/morning low clouds around and temps in the low 70's at the coast. High pressure builds slightly early next week for less low clouds and temps in the mid-70's. Then late next week, low pressure may develop again and the low clouds may be more persistent. All in all, some mild temps and no late summer heat to speak of. 

BEST BET:

Sunday with combo swell or next Thursday with fun SW again. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As mentioned in last week's THE Surf Report- even though we've had an abundance of shark sightings in Southern California the past 5 years, sharks are actually endangered. On top of that, a team of researchers, led by international conservation charity ZSL (Zoological Society of London), has discovered that sharks are much rarer in habitats nearer large human populations and fish markets. The team also found that the average body size of sharks and other marine predators fell dramatically in these areas, where sharks are caught and killed intensively for their meat and fins. Here is what they found:

The study shows that the average body size and number of sharks and other marine predators -- vital to maintaining healthy ocean ecosystems -- fell significantly in proximity to cities with more than 10,000 people and associated fishing fleets. The minimum distance from people and fishing which had no measurable effect was 775 miles. This is far further than previous studies have suggested and probably reflects the increased distances fishing boats can now travel. As a result, sharks were only observed at 12% of sites monitored.

Interestingly, researchers also found that sea surface temperature had a strong influence on predators' average body size, with a marked decrease at more than 82°F. While this is consistent with normal biogeographic patterns -- it is known that many smaller species live in tropical waters, for example -- it could become a problem as global temperatures continue to rise.

Lead author Dr Tom Letessier, of ZSL's Institute of Zoology, said: "Human activity is now the biggest influence on sharks' distribution, overtaking every other ecological factor. Just 13% of the world's oceans can be considered 'wilderness' but sharks and other predators are much more common and significantly larger at distances greater than 775 miles from people. This suggests that large marine predators are generally unable to thrive near to people and is another clear example of the impact of human overexploitation on our seas."

To collect their data, the team analysed video footage taken at 1,041 sites across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, selected to test the biggest possible range of conditions and habitats. Sites varied in proximity to fish markets and human populations, with some close to cities and others up to 925 miles away. Sharks -- and other free-swimming predators -- were studied using cameras attached to cannisters filled with bait. In total the team recorded 23,200 animals representing 109 species. These included 841 individual sharks from 19 different species. From monitoring the coral reefs that surround the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) to protecting the last breeding grounds of Critically Endangered angelsharks, ZSL is committed to preserving the oceans' habitats and the wildlife they sustain. Just one year away from the UN's Aichi Biodiversity targets end date, there remain considerable shortcomings in the current placement of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs).

Dr Letessier added: "Our study also found that shallower water habitats, of depths less than 1,650 feet, were vital for marine predator diversity. We therefore need to identify sites that are both shallow and remote and prioritize them for conservation. However, there are still numerous shallow hotspots in the vicinity of human markets that are not appropriately protected, and this must change. Existing large, no-take MPAs need to be better enforced and extended to focus on the last refuges where these extraordinary animals remain abundant. "Large marine predators -- and sharks in particular -- play a unique and irreplaceable role in the ocean ecosystem. They control populations of prey species, keep those populations healthy by removing sick or injured animals, and transport nutrients between loosely connected habitats over vast distances."

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If this picture doesn't get you fired up, it's time to find a new hobby. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

I'm Game

Confident Confidant

Inventor Of The Quin Fin