Our odd summer continues.
SURF:
Had mostly small SW this past week with cold water temps and fog hugging the coast due to NW winds. Today NW windswell decided to join the party, new SW filled in, the winds switched to SW, and our water climbed back up to the high 60's. Are you writing all this down? There'll be a quiz later. For tomorrow look for the NW to continue, the SW to peak, and hopefully... our water temps to hit 70 again. With the combination of swells, most beaches will have chest high waves and best spots will hit shoulder high sets. Both swells will back down on Saturday for waist high+ surf and chest high waves in the OC.
Luckily for us, new SW shows up on Sunday afternoon ALONG with small S swell from Hurricane Ivo. Ivo isn't a big storm- Category 1 with 80 mph winds- but he is headed straight towards us. Look for shoulder high sets Sunday evening and nice weather. All in all- fun tomorrow, small Saturday, and better Sunday.
And here's more info to mull over:
Tides this weekend are pretty mellow:
- 3' at sunrise
- 5' at dinner
And here's the sunrise and sunset. (With clear skies, you can probably still surf until 8 PM?):
- 6:17 AM sunrise
- 7:27 PM sunset
FORECAST:
Ivo and the SW groundswell hold into Monday morning for more shoulder high surf then it takes a nose dive to the waist high range on Tuesday.
Models show a couple small storms forming off Antarctica and New Zealand this weekend which may give us waist to chest high surf around Wedensday the 28th. After that, the southern hemisphere takes a breather and we'll be left with small NW windswell next weekend- just in time for Labor Day Weekend! If anything changes between now and then though, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
Our May Gray (or the phrase I trademarked 'August Disgust') should hang around tomorrow then back off Saturday for less clouds at the beaches and maybe some tropical clouds from dissipating Hurricane Ivo. Regardless, look for more clouds again tomorrow then more sun, a little more humidity, and temps in the mid-70's on Saturday/Sunday. Should be a great weekend. That will last into at least the 1st part of next week.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow with fun NW/SW or late Sunday/early Monday with better S/SW swells.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So far this summer, it's seemed like a boring hurricane season- especially when compared to last year. And you're right- it's been boring compared to last year. Here's the facts:
- At this point last summer we had 14 named storms vs. 10 so far this year.
- There were SEVEN Category 2 or stronger storms at this point last year. This year? Just two...
The culprit for our sad summer? El Nino has faded away and left us in a neutral pattern. If you haven't noticed, our water temps have been around 65-70 the first few weeks of August (typically the warmest water of the year) and last summer at this time it was 75-80; a full 10 degrees warmer. So is El Nino officially done for the time being? Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had to say:
The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor neutral conditions (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
What’s on our plate?
The July Niño3.4 index, our primary index for monitoring El Nino conditions, was 0.4°C above the long-term average, falling below the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C for the first time since last September. In addition, tropical atmospheric conditions have trended toward neutral, as the cloudiness and rainfall over the Pacific were near average over the past month. The trade winds also have been near average lately, indicating that Walker circulation, which weakens during El Niño, has shown signs of rebounding.
Based on these latest indicators from the tropical ocean and atmosphere, NOAA forecasters have declared that El Niño has ended and neutral conditions have returned. Does a return to neutral mean that average weather conditions are expected to prevail around the globe? The answer is no. A return to neutral means that we will not get that predictable influence from El Niño or La Niña, but the atmosphere is certainly capable of wild swings without a push from either influence. Basically, neutral means that the job of seasonal forecasters gets a bit tougher because we do not have that El Nino/La Nina influence that we potentially can predict several months in advance.
A change to neutral could also impact the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically ramps up this time of year and peaks in early-to-mid September. El Niño tends to produce hostile conditions for Atlantic hurricanes, so a return to neutral means that we will not get a decisive push from El Niño to the Atlantic. Basically look for more hurricanes in the Atlantic the next few months.
And just to drive home that neutral doesn’t necessarily mean “bland and boring,” a closer look at the weekly ocean surface temperature reveals some fascinating, wavy features over the eastern Pacific. Called tropical instability waves, these waves can produce some dramatic week-to-week swings, but their effects tend to get washed out in the monthly and seasonally averaged index. That doesn’t mean that these waves cannot impact neutral conditions though.
What’s on the menu?
Will ENSO-neutral conditions continue through fall and winter? Similar to last month, most of the computer models we consult predict that the ocean surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific region will remain near average throughout this period. NOAA forecasters favor this outcome, predicting a 50-55% chance of neutral conditions remaining through winter.
Is it possible for an El Niño to end in the spring or summer only to reemerge again in the following fall? Yes, it can happen. We have seen this sort of situation a few times since 1950, the latest being the reemergence of El Niño in the fall of 1977. Some forecast models favor this outcome, and forecasters consider this plausible, but not the most likely outcome, predicting a 30% chance of El Niño next fall and winter.
The current forecast underscores that we don’t have a sure bet this far in advance – there are many possible outcomes for the coming fall and winter. The forecast probabilities still give us useful information on what outcome is favored at this time. As conditions evolve, we will gather more information that will allow us to refine these probabilities and hopefully narrow the forecast uncertainty.
So what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing! Earlier this year, signs pointed to El Nino lasting through 2019 and now it's dead in the water (literally). Long story short- look for average surf, rainfall, and snow this winter.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is what our water temps have felt like all summer. Remember when our water hit 80 degrees last summer? I don't either...
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Agile
Bark Is Worse Than My Bite
Perfected The 'Tow-out': I Don't Get Towed Into Waves, The Wave Drags Me Along the Reef Instead
