THE Surf Report- Early Edition

July in Christmas. 

SURF:

Having fun yet? Heaps of surf the past week has started to make up for a slow summer/fall. This afternoon we had building NW wind/groundswell for chest high surf. The swell is peaking tonight unfortunately but we'll still have chest high NW in the AM with shoulder high sets. Saturday drops to the waist high range with chest high sets and Sunday looks to be about the same. With that said, make sure to get it tomorrow morning if you can. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:46 AM sunrise  
• 4:44 PM sunset  
• And remember- winter starts Monday, December 21st. So the days will start getting longer! 

• Water temps are holding at 60 degrees. 

• And tides this weekend are mellower than the King Tides the past few days:
• 3' at sunrise
• 5' at lunch
• 1' at sunset

FORECAST:

After a slow weekend, things kick into gear Christmas week. As an early present, I'll let you flip the switch on the Emergency Boardriding System! 

First up is a new chest high+ NW Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. 

Then it's Christmas in July! Or is it July in Christmas? Anyway, a very late season summer-like SW swell took shape off Antarctica today and we'll see chest high sets Xmas Eve. On Christmas morning, we'll see shoulder high+ surf in North County SD and head high+ surf in the OC. 

That lasts into next weekend and is joined by a good NW for more head high+ surf. Looking pretty good for the long holiday weekend. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Fun NW early tomorrow or good SW Xmas or good NW next weekend. 

WEATHER:

Still no rain in sight. Which is fine for Christmas in July but not July in Christmas. You may have noticed some clouds this evening but they didn't amount to much. High pressure sets up tomorrow for weak offshore flow, sunny skies, and mild temps through Monday. A cold front is forecasted to move by to the N early next week and we'll just see more clouds down here mid-week. After that the models diverge but most of them show us having sunny skies for Xmas into next weekend. Let's hope 2021 starts off on the right foot with some rain around here. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

If you haven't noticed already, 2020 has been a real doozy to say the least. And that also goes for our lack of rain around here thanks to La Nina. Since January 1st, San Diego has recorded 7.26" of rain, which is 2.16" below average. Most of that fell of course last winter. And since October 1st (the official start to our rainy season) La Nina has been in full swing with SD just receiving a paltry 0.41" of rain; 1.78" below normal. Instead of storms, we've been getting hot, dry Santa Ana winds. We've seen a series of them since October, including two that produced gusts over 90 mph in the local mountains and gusts over 60 mph in the foothills. The storms that have been forming in the Aleutians have been taking aim at British Columbia then dropping down into the Rockies- all but missing us down here. 

And the forecast through the end of the year looks to be about the same. So let's dive deeper into the numbers:

• Newport Beach: 0.38" since October 1st; 14% of normal. For comparison's sake, last year at this time they had 3.29" of rain or 120% of normal.
• Oceanside: 0.61" since October 1st; 24% of normal. For comparison's sake, last year at this time they had 4.62" of rain or 185% of normal. 
• San Diego: 0.41" since October 1st; 18% of normal. For comparison's sake, last year at this time they had 4.12" of rain or 177% of normal. 

Good news? Winter starts on Monday and on average, our rainiest months are January, February, and March. So we have that going for us. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The locals are so tough at this spot that they gave the WAVE a fat lip. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Orderly

Knew All Along Chargers Were Going To Win

Kids Ask Santa For Toys, I Instead Ask Neptune For Surf

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

When it rains it...

SURF:

I was going to finish by saying 'it pours', but it's never going to rain again (more on that below) so scratch that. 

As far as the surf goes though, we've had good surf and plenty more coming. Sure is better than the flat spell we had in November. For Friday, the current WNW groundswell winds down to the waist to chest high range but NW windswell fills in behind it for similar sized surf. 

On Saturday the NW windswell continues and we get a small late season SW swell for waist high+ surf with chest high sets towards the OC. Luckily for us in North County SD, the combo swells will keep us in mostly chest high surf through Sunday morning and peaky (in comparison to the walled WNW we had the past few days). And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:42 AM sunrise  
• 4:43 PM sunset  

• Water temps are holding around 60. Get it while you can before it drops to the mid 50's by February! 

• And tides are crazy this weekend- about an 8' swing in 6.5 hours. Tides will drop about 1.25' an hour in the AM! 
• 7' at sunrise
• -1' after lunch
• back up to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

When it rains, it pours (surf that is). Time to plug in the Emergency Boardriding System again. 

Monday afternoon sees a new NW filling in for overhead sets by the afternoon and that lasts into Tuesday morning. 

We then get another shot of surf, this time head high NW on Thursday. After that, the north Pacific takes a breather but we still should have some waist high+ NW the beginning of Xmas week. 

Then it looks like most of us have been good this year because the South Pacific is forecasted to come alive and we could see a good (head high) SW swell by Christmas Eve into Christmas?! I sure know I've been good; keep up your end of the bargain people! Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Little combo swell this weekend or solid NW Monday/Tuesday or good SW Xmas?...

WEATHER:

When it rains... nevermind. Forecast charts a few days ago hinted that the storm window may be opening up towards Christmas week but have since backed off that prediction. For the time being, we have a weak cold front moving by to the north tonight which will give us a little more wind tomorrow than we'd like. Saturday is calmer and we're back to a weak Santa Ana on Sunday. We also see that on Tuesday. The 2nd half of next week looks mild. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Next time you're surfing, wouldn't it be great to see sharks BEFORE they mistakenly take a bite? That's the goal of the SharkEye project; one day producing automated “shark reports” for beachgoers to help them gauge levels of risk. Here's what the NY Times reported earlier this week:

Once rare off Southern California beaches, great white sharks are beginning to show up more often. The newcomers are mostly juvenile sharks, which prefer the warm waters closer to shore. That means many beachgoers who are now spotting sharks have never seen the predators before. “When these little fins started to pop up, everyone was scrambling to figure out what was going on,” said Douglas J. McCauley, a marine science professor and the director of the Benioff Ocean Initiative at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

A new project using artificial intelligence called SharkEye may help keep track of these fearsome fish. The technology is being developed by Dr. McCauley’s lab (which works with A.I. researchers at Salesforce, the company led by his lab’s sponsor, Marc Benioff) and computer scientists at San Diego State University to monitor more of the oceanfront while learning about shark migrations. SharkEye has been tested over the past two summers at Padaro Beach in Santa Barbara County, a popular area for surf camps that also happens to be a nursery for juvenile white sharks. Shark spotting there and in other places, when it occurs at all, is usually done by tracking tagged animals online, or by having someone stand on a paddle board in the water to keep an eye out.

With SharkEye, a pilot launches a drone that travels along a preprogrammed path in the sky, followed by a second meandering route to scan the water below. The drone stays about 120 feet up, allowing the sweeps to quickly cover a large area of the ocean. That height is also high enough to avoid bothering marine life. The pilot monitors a video feed in real time, noting any sharks, and then sends a text to the 36 people who have signed up to get alerts — a group that includes lifeguards, surf camp instructors and beachside homeowners. Dr. McCauley said the lab was working on different types of alerts so people would have information before venturing into the water. These might come through social media channels or even a “shark report” modeled off surf reports.

The drone footage also goes into a computer model that the team trained to recognize great white sharks. Combining that with other data, such as information on ocean temperature and other marine life migrations, researchers hope to use the power of artificial intelligence to develop predictions for when and where sharks will show up that could lead to ways to share the ocean as safely as possible.

Researchers are turning to A.I. to learn more about some marine animals, which, because they live under the vast oceans, have been harder to study than most land creatures. Using hydrophones and A.I., Google built tools to automatically detect humpback whales and orcas by their sounds. Flukebook is a project that tracks individual dolphins and whales by using artificial intelligence to identify them by unique features on their tails and fins, much like facial recognition technology. Even without A.I., drones have allowed groups like Pelagios Kakunjá, a Mexican conservation organization, to study sharks more closely.

The increase in great white sharks off California is partially a result of climate change, which is pushing the animals, especially the juveniles, north from their usual haunts further south along California’s coast down into Baja California. Successful conservation efforts like the Marine Mammal Protection Act have helped some of the sharks’ favorite foods — seals and sea lions — rebound. And a ban on near-shore gillnets has reduced the number of sharks accidentally caught by commercial fishermen.

Even with the growing shark population, shark attacks are rare off the West Coast, with only 118, including six fatalities, since 2000, according to the nonprofit Shark Research Committee. One of those attacks was at Padaro Beach over the summer, when the SharkEye team wasn’t flying a drone because of the coronavirus shutdown. A shark is believed to have bitten a woman swimming offshore, although her injuries were minor. And eight days later, a shark killed a surfer a few hours north in Santa Cruz — the first fatal shark attack in California since 2012.

There is no evidence that the rate of shark attacks is increasing even as more people use the beach, according to Chris Lowe, a professor in marine biology and the director of the Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach. The chances of being bitten are still extremely low, but giving people more insight into the number of sharks in the area may help beachgoers make informed decisions about what they are willing to risk. “The reality is, sharks aren’t going to change their behavior,” Dr. Lowe said. “This data is more valuable in changing people’s behavior.”

Chris Keet, the owner of Surf Happens, a local surf store that offers summer camps and private lessons on Padaro Beach, is already altering his business based on the SharkEye data. After SharkEye clocked nine sightings in one day in July, Mr. Keet decided to cancel a two-decade-old summer tradition in which campers dive for sand dollars and swim out to a buoy. “Even though the sharks aren’t aggressive,” Mr. Keet said, “it just takes one.”

Because the SharkEye drone is not in use the whole time camp is in session, Mr. Keet still relies on people on paddle boards as lookouts, including himself. After growing up nearby and never seeing a shark, he now almost always spots a shadow or a fin cutting through the water when he’s on duty. “They’re beautiful,” he said. “But it’s nerve-racking.”

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I've had various Pics of the Week similar to this one over the years; an empty line up with a surfer casually looking at it. And I say the same thing every time: "WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! GET OUT THERE!"

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Cool

Prognosticator. Or Am I A Procrastinator? All I Know Is That I'm Going To Be Lazy Tomorrow

Would Have Surfed Mav's This Week But My Gun Was At Ding Repair

THE Surf Report- Early Early Edition

Oh, I'm afraid the Emergency Boardriding System will be quite operational when the swell arrives.

SURF:

It's good to be fall. Not the biggest swells this week but rideable, clean, and sunny. Hope you got a warm up session 'cause you're gonna need it this week. 

As you've probably heard by now, Hawaii got blasted by a solid WNW swell yesterday and it's headed our way. Good news about this swell is that it was aimed more towards us (W) then British Columbia (NW) like in weeks past. So North County San Diego will see plenty of head high+ surf and 10' sets in South SD. Look for the swell to build throughout the day today and peak on Friday. Saturday will still have fun shoulder high surf and Sunday will be back to the waist to chest high range. We should also have Santa Anas today (and less so tomorrow) to help keep this swell clean. So on that note, I'm activating the Emergency Boardriding System. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:37 AM sunrise (and will the lack of clouds in the AM, you can paddle out around 6:15 AM)
• 4:42 PM sunset (and surf until 5 PM)

• Water temps are holding at 60 but feel A LOT colder at the dawn patrol due to air temps in the high 40's. Invest in a hood if you don't have one!  

• And tides may be a factor this weekend for your session so plan accordingly:
• 3' at sunrise
• 5' at lunch
• 0' at sunset

FORECAST:

Make sure to pace yourself this weekend because we have yet a bigger swell coming early in the week. Monday morning starts off with chest high sets from a new WNW and builds through the day for head high surf. By Tuesday afternoon, it's well overhead in North County SD with double overhead sets at best spots in SD. Wednesday morning will be similar in size as the swell winds down by Thursday. Next weekend looks small again unfortunately. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf for any new details. 

BEST BET: 

Friday with firing surf and great conditions. Or Tuesday with bigger surf and... great conditions. 

WEATHER:

If you haven't been outside this morning, then you're missing a Santa Ana wind event here in San Diego. Great for the surf, bad for fires. Thanks to La Nina, looks like high pressure is control for the foreseeable future. The winds back off this weekend but a weaker offshore event may be in store again towards Monday. After that, more sun and mild temps. Basically highs near 70, lows near 50, sunny skies, and offshore winds every few days. And no, rain is not in our future. For like, forever. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Ever surfed Trestles or San Onofre? Of course you have. That's not a thousand ducks sitting in the line ups. Ever wonder how safe the water is? I'm not talking about the Great White capital of Southern California- I'm talking about the nuclear reactors sitting on the bluff and if that's a problem in the water. Though many may not know it, throughout its existence, the San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS) has discharged wastewater that contains very low levels of radiation. All nuclear plants release some effluents, though the nature and amounts can vary by plant site and configuration. In the case of San Onofre, the “liquid batch releases” go right into the Pacific. Here's the San Diego Union Tribune to explain:

Southern California Edison, the plant’s operator, insists the levels are safe for marine life and the humans who swim and surf at San Onofre State Beach. But the Surfrider Foundation just announced a collaboration with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to double-check the water quality surrounding the now-shuttered plant to provide an extra layer of transparency. “All the reporting and testing right now is done by Edison,” said Katie Day, staff scientist for the foundation based in San Clemente. “It’s good to be able to have an external, independent testing option, just to be a watchdog and clarify the true level and have more confidence in what the exposure is.”

Just like any other industrial operator, Edison officials must acquire permits to spit out wastewater from the nuclear plant, known as SONGS for short. Traveling though long conduits, the wastewater at San Onofre is sent more than one mile offshore and about 50 feet below the surface. Non-radiological releases, such as sewage, have to meet the standards set by the National Discharge Pollutant Elimination System, which is implemented by the State Water Resources Control Board. Radiological discharges are governed by the license SONGS has with the federal government’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In each case, the wastewater must be cleaned up and highly diluted before going into the ocean.

When the plant generated electricity, discharges from SONGS were common, since water plays an important role in operating a nuclear plant by cooling and shielding the facility from radiation. From 2000 through 2011, SONGS averaged 171 releases per year (that's about 1 every other day for those of you keeping score). SONGS officially shut down in June 2013 and earlier this year, Edison and its contractors began an estimated eight-year project to tear down the facility. As part of the decommissioning effort, SONGS restarted its water batch releases in December 2019. The number of releases and the amount expelled from the plant has sharply increased this year as dismantlement activities ramped up. Between May and mid-October, about 19,000 gallons were discharged into the ocean 11 separate times. The amount jumped to 92,200 gallons for discharges on Oct. 22-23 and Oct. 29-30. Another release came on Nov. 19, totaling more than 84,000 gallons. That's roughly 200,000 gallons this year- or the equivalent of 40,000 water cooler bottles (those big 5 gallon barrels). That's A LOT. Imagine 40,000 water cooler bottles floating in the line up? AND... they're radioactive? Not cool. 

Edison officials say the radioactivity of the discharges remained low and within regulatory limits. Even the more recent discharges that expelled significantly more volume contained smaller radiological doses, the company said. The NRC has set a safe dose rate limit of 6 millirems per year. Edison says it has reached just a fraction of that limit — 0.226 percent.

Surfrider urged state regulators to require Edison to make public each time it makes a discharge. As part of acquiring the necessary permit in 2019 from the California Coastal Commission to start dismantlement, the company now posts the dates, volume and radiation dose of each liquid batch release. “We were really excited to get that,” Day said. “Right now, San Onofre is the only nuclear plant in the United States that provides these notifications.” Not surprisingly, word of the radiological batch releases raised alarm in some quarters. A few activists have put up signs at San Onofre State Beach, alerting surfers and beachgoers when discharges are scheduled (which they should be given a heads up). 

SONGS shut down prematurely after ill-designed steam generators led to a radiation leak and in 2018 a 50-ton canister filled with spent fuel nearly fell about 18 feet while being lowered into a storage cavity.

Ken Buesseler, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and an expert who has tracked radiation levels from the Fukushima nuclear disaster, shared his concerns but said the 2019 data from the San Onofre batch releases indicated current dose levels do not pose a health threat. “You could still swim or surf every single day for an entire year and the dose effect of the additional radiation is about a thousand times smaller than a dental X-ray,” Buesseler said of the levels of Cesium-137, a radioactive isotope his lab measures using ultra-sensitive equipment. In fact, Buesseler said, “As a research scientist, I can detect radioactivity everywhere in every ocean, every lake, every drinking water source.”

Ever since testing of nuclear weapons began in the 1950s, Buesseler said, “we’ve been releasing radioactivity to the environment ... Sometimes this is confusing to the public. With the methods we use, we will detect Cesium in every ocean in the world at some small level.”

In the aftermath of Fukushima, Buesseler and his team at Woods Hole created a program called “Our Radioactive Ocean,” in which anyone can send in water samples for testing. “People simply collect five gallons of seawater — that’s the sample size we need to measure what is there already — and then we can compare that to prior samples in the area to see if it’s elevated,” Buesseler said. That’s exactly what Surfrider plans to do.

Now that 48 hours notice is given for batch releases at San Onofre, Surfrider intends to collect water samples before, during and after a discharge and send them to Buesseler’s team. Then, they can compare the numbers with the figures SONGS has released. “Surfrider is excited to really get to learn more and partner with true experts, independent experts, in the field to have a better understanding of what our risks are,” Day said. Officials with Edison, also known as SCE, said they no problem with Surfrider’s plans.

“SCE has been safely cleaning and discharging these liquids for more than 50 years with no measurable impact on the environment,” Edison spokesman John Dobken said in an email. “SCE shares its science-based testing data with the public and welcomes similar science-based studies to help in educating our community about these safe releases.”

Surfrider is looking to raise $3,300 to pull six 5-gallon samples from the water around the discharge areas and ship them to Massachusetts. A donation page has been established here. As of Tuesday morning, about $1,200 had been raised. Buesseler said he avoids using the word “safe” when it comes to talking about radiation, preferring to use the term “relative risk.” “I’ve never seen evidence of an increase (in Cesium) related to reactor operations” at San Onofre, he said. “But we should look.”

Just another reason to avoid the Trestles/San O' area. Unless you like crowds, juvenile Great Whites, and low level radiation. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This spot was discovered by Gandalf about 6,000 years ago and Frodo nails most of his clips here. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Pathfinder

I Use A Flowbee Too

Only Surf Forecaster That Can Predict Swells 2 Years In Advance

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Hope you didn't eat too much or you'll miss the dawn patrol tomorrow!

SURF:

Fun NW earlier in the week was replaced but really fun NW this afternoon for shoulder high surf most everywhere. That swell is peaking tonight and we'll have some leftover chest high surf in the AM along with Santa Ana winds. That fades into the weekend unfortunately and we're back to waist high sets by Sunday. The weather will be nice though so get on it early Friday morning. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:32 AM sunrise 
• 4:43 PM sunset

• Water temps are holding at 60. 

• And we've got big tide swings this weekend:
• 6.5' at sunrise
• -0.5 mid afternoon
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Quiet to start the work week but we get more chest high steep NW on Tuesday afternoon (and bigger towards SD). 

After that we finally get a storm that's aimed more from the W and the result is better/bigger surf starting Thursday the 4th and holding into at least Saturday the 6th. Look for head high surf and good conditions again. Models also show more good WNW towards the middle of the month and maybe the start of our rainy season? If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf.

BEST BET: 

Tomorrow morning before the swell dies or pretty much the 2nd half of next week. 

WEATHER:

Santa Ana wind event is on tap tomorrow with temps near 70 and wind gusts near 20. The OC will have stronger winds so watch your back up there. Saturday the winds start to back off but the warm sunny weather remains. Most of next week will be sunny, mild, and no rain in sight. As mentioned above, models hint at high pressure breaking down the 2nd half of December and maybe our first shot of persistent rain. Let's hope. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Came across some historical data from the buoys up and down the West Coast (which only has around 25 years of reliable data) and saw some eye popping numbers. Remember any of these swells?

• Oceanside offshore buoy: 17.8' on 2/1/16
• San Nicholas Island buoy: 30' on 1/21/17
• Torrey Pines offshore buoy: 19.4' on 2/1/16
• Scripps Pier buoy: 17' on 2/1/16
• Mission Bay West buoy: 19.8' on 2/1/16
• Point Conception buoy: 32.7' on 2/24/08
• San Pedro offshore buoy: 16.8' on 2/1/16
• And the granddaddy of them all... Ocean Station Papa buoy (Oregon): 49.8' on 12/19/12! 

As you can see above, 2/1/16 was a pretty solid day here in Southern California with most readings between 15-20'. What did THE Surf Report (http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2016/01/) say back then? "Models are showing an unusually large NW windswell filling in. Large meaning 15'. Not sure about that, but I think it's going to be big and out of control regardless." Basically we had a storm right on top of us thanks to El Nino and big messy stormsurf. So unfortunately, it wasn't rideable. Opposite of this winter's La Nina (small and clean). What's your preference? Big and stormy or clean and small? Personally, I like big and messy with no one out! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is how my stomach feels after Thanksgiving dinner. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Thankful

Wish Every Weekend Was A Four Day Weekend

Wear A 5/4/3 To Keep My Giblets Warm

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Get on it! 

SURF:

Had some fun surf most of the week. Nothing big yet this season but plenty of fun waves around town. Today we had peaking NW & SW groundswells for shoulder high sets. That luckily holds into tomorrow morning with a touch less SW. Saturday takes a dip to the chest high range and Sunday is waist to chest high. Looks like a fun weekend of surf as long as you get on it ASAP! Weather should be good too. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:24 AM sunrise 
• 4:45 PM sunset

• Water temps are holding in the low 60's

• And the tides this weekend are a little mellower than last weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• 4.5' at lunch  
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Still nothing big on the horizon but we do have more waves coming. 

We get a reinforcement on Monday for chest high+ waves from the NW and head high surf in SD. That lasts into Tuesday. 

Mid-week looks small, then forecast charts shore more chest high+ surf arriving the Friday after Thanksgiving into the weekend. I can finally put that groveller away. 

After that, models show another NW taking shape next week which may give us more waist/shoulder high surf around the 1st of December. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET: 

Friday with good combo swell. Or Monday with new but slightly smaller NW. Or... if you're not in a turkey coma after Thanksgiving, next Friday with more fun NW. Or December 1st? Good to see waves again. 

WEATHER:

Still no rain in sight but hopefully that will change soon. For the time being, we've had a weak cold front moving by to the N today, so expect hazy skies and cool fall like weather again for Friday. That's replaced this weekend by weak high pressure with temps in the mid-70's at the beaches and mild sea breezes. Next week? High pressure breaks down slightly for more cool temps and sunny skies towards Tuesday. After that, models diverge and we may have more cool conditions or MAYBE a chance of showers on Thanksgiving- hope that's the case. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

As you've read numerous times in THE Surf Report, La Niña and El Nino (aka El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) play a significant role in our weather and surf as it relates to Southern California. You probably know by now that we're in the middle of a La Niña weather pattern (below average rain, below average surf, below average water temps- but our friends back east of course had a record setting hurricane season). So how long with this thing last? And will it get any worse? Here's some insight from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring. The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the eastern tropical Pacific was -1.3°C, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value on record, which dates back to 1950.

One of the ways we monitor the atmospheric response to ENSO is through satellite images of the amount of thermal radiation leaving the Earth’s surface. Clouds block this outgoing long-wave radiation, so when the satellites see less outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) than average, it means more clouds and rain than average. Conversely, when the satellite picks up more OLR, the skies are clearer than average. During La Niña, we’d expect to see less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific and more rain over Indonesia—the strengthened Walker circulation, La Niña’s atmospheric response; the models show this pattern clearly.

Another component of the strengthened Walker circulation is stronger Pacific trade winds, the near-surface winds that blow from east to west near the equator, and stronger west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere. Both strengthened wind patterns were observed during October, providing more evidence that the ocean-atmosphere coupling we expect during both phases of ENSO is present. This coupling is a feedback mechanism that strengthens ENSO. In the case of La Niña, cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific mean the difference between the warm western Pacific and the cooler central Pacific is greater than average. This greater difference leads to the stronger Walker circulation, and the stronger trade winds further cool the surface water in the central Pacific and also pile up warm water in the west. Several computer models are suggesting that this La Niña is likely to be a stronger event, with an anomaly during November–January cooler than -1.5°C.The substantial atmospheric coupling supports these predictions, as does the amount of cooler water under the surface. These cooler subsurface waters, which are also evidence of the coupled system, will provide a source of cooler-than-average water for the surface over the next few months. October’s average subsurface temperature was the 7th-coolest October since 1979. The Climate Prediction Center is now providing a probabilistic outlook for the strength of El Niño and La Niña events. While forecast probabilities are provided for every season, it is the November–January season that has the largest chance (54%) of the tropical eastern Pacific being -1.5°C. This would make it a strong event; of the 23 La Niña events since 1950, seven have had maximum cooler than -1.5°C.

As we’ve observed in past La Niña's, it appears to be relatively rare in our observed record (starting in 1950) for La Niña to develop following a neutral or slightly warm winter like we had in 2019–2020. It turns out that the previous La Niña events we’ve observed so far have all been preceded by either El Niño or La Niña. 2020 stands out, following a winter where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were slightly warm, but not quite El Niño. Since we only have about 70 years of observations, it’s hard to say exactly how unusual this is—we’d need to do more studies with climate models to find out.We pay so much attention to ENSO because it affects global weather and climate; a stronger La Niña event means these effects are more likely. We’ve already seen hints of some of the weather and climate patterns we’d expect during La Niña. The most obvious one of these is the extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña leads to reduced shear (the change in wind from the surface to the upper levels) in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, allowing hurricanes to grow and strengthen.

Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains. 

So as it looks now, we should see smaller surf/less rain/colder water temps though probably next summer. At that point, we should be back to neutral status next fall. And if models are correct, hopefully aimed towards El Nino next winter...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If you're wondering, the answer is 'yes' to all of your questions: Yes, no one is out. Yes, it's 10'. Yes, that left is SUPER long. And no, I'm not telling you where that is. (Ok, that's 3 yes's and a no). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Tremendous

One Of Clooney's 14 Friends

Little Known Fact: Have Never Wiped Out