Get on it!
SURF:
Had some fun surf most of the week. Nothing big yet this season but plenty of fun waves around town. Today we had peaking NW & SW groundswells for shoulder high sets. That luckily holds into tomorrow morning with a touch less SW. Saturday takes a dip to the chest high range and Sunday is waist to chest high. Looks like a fun weekend of surf as long as you get on it ASAP! Weather should be good too. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:24 AM sunrise
- 4:45 PM sunset
- Water temps are holding in the low 60's
- And the tides this weekend are a little mellower than last weekend:
- 3' at sunrise
- 4.5' at lunch
- 2' at sunset
FORECAST:
Still nothing big on the horizon but we do have more waves coming.
We get a reinforcement on Monday for chest high+ waves from the NW and head high surf in SD. That lasts into Tuesday.
Mid-week looks small, then forecast charts shore more chest high+ surf arriving the Friday after Thanksgiving into the weekend. I can finally put that groveller away.
After that, models show another NW taking shape next week which may give us more waist/shoulder high surf around the 1st of December. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Friday with good combo swell. Or Monday with new but slightly smaller NW. Or... if you're not in a turkey coma after Thanksgiving, next Friday with more fun NW. Or December 1st? Good to see waves again.
WEATHER:
Still no rain in sight but hopefully that will change soon. For the time being, we've had a weak cold front moving by to the N today, so expect hazy skies and cool fall like weather again for Friday. That's replaced this weekend by weak high pressure with temps in the mid-70's at the beaches and mild sea breezes. Next week? High pressure breaks down slightly for more cool temps and sunny skies towards Tuesday. After that, models diverge and we may have more cool conditions or MAYBE a chance of showers on Thanksgiving- hope that's the case.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you've read numerous times in THE Surf Report, La Niña and El Nino (aka El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) play a significant role in our weather and surf as it relates to Southern California. You probably know by now that we're in the middle of a La Niña weather pattern (below average rain, below average surf, below average water temps- but our friends back east of course had a record setting hurricane season). So how long with this thing last? And will it get any worse? Here's some insight from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring. The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the eastern tropical Pacific was -1.3°C, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value on record, which dates back to 1950.
One of the ways we monitor the atmospheric response to ENSO is through satellite images of the amount of thermal radiation leaving the Earth’s surface. Clouds block this outgoing long-wave radiation, so when the satellites see less outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) than average, it means more clouds and rain than average. Conversely, when the satellite picks up more OLR, the skies are clearer than average. During La Niña, we’d expect to see less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific and more rain over Indonesia—the strengthened Walker circulation, La Niña’s atmospheric response; the models show this pattern clearly.
Another component of the strengthened Walker circulation is stronger Pacific trade winds, the near-surface winds that blow from east to west near the equator, and stronger west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere. Both strengthened wind patterns were observed during October, providing more evidence that the ocean-atmosphere coupling we expect during both phases of ENSO is present. This coupling is a feedback mechanism that strengthens ENSO. In the case of La Niña, cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific mean the difference between the warm western Pacific and the cooler central Pacific is greater than average. This greater difference leads to the stronger Walker circulation, and the stronger trade winds further cool the surface water in the central Pacific and also pile up warm water in the west. Several computer models are suggesting that this La Niña is likely to be a stronger event, with an anomaly during November–January cooler than -1.5°C.The substantial atmospheric coupling supports these predictions, as does the amount of cooler water under the surface. These cooler subsurface waters, which are also evidence of the coupled system, will provide a source of cooler-than-average water for the surface over the next few months. October’s average subsurface temperature was the 7th-coolest October since 1979. The Climate Prediction Center is now providing a probabilistic outlook for the strength of El Niño and La Niña events. While forecast probabilities are provided for every season, it is the November–January season that has the largest chance (54%) of the tropical eastern Pacific being -1.5°C. This would make it a strong event; of the 23 La Niña events since 1950, seven have had maximum cooler than -1.5°C.
As we’ve observed in past La Niña's, it appears to be relatively rare in our observed record (starting in 1950) for La Niña to develop following a neutral or slightly warm winter like we had in 2019–2020. It turns out that the previous La Niña events we’ve observed so far have all been preceded by either El Niño or La Niña. 2020 stands out, following a winter where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were slightly warm, but not quite El Niño. Since we only have about 70 years of observations, it’s hard to say exactly how unusual this is—we’d need to do more studies with climate models to find out.We pay so much attention to ENSO because it affects global weather and climate; a stronger La Niña event means these effects are more likely. We’ve already seen hints of some of the weather and climate patterns we’d expect during La Niña. The most obvious one of these is the extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña leads to reduced shear (the change in wind from the surface to the upper levels) in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, allowing hurricanes to grow and strengthen.
Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains.
Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains.
So as it looks now, we should see smaller surf/less rain/colder water temps though probably next summer. At that point, we should be back to neutral status next fall. And if models are correct, hopefully aimed towards El Nino next winter...
PIC OF THE WEEK:
If you're wondering, the answer is 'yes' to all of your questions: Yes, no one is out. Yes, it's 10'. Yes, that left is SUPER long. And no, I'm not telling you where that is. (Ok, that's 3 yes's and a no).
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Tremendous
One Of Clooney's 14 Friends
Little Known Fact: Have Never Wiped Out
