THE Surf Report

Fun early, bad late.  

SURF:

Great surf this past week + great conditions = great surf. Should be fun early on this weekend before all heck breaks loose. 

First up though, we have a slight bump in the surf today as new small NW fills in for chest high+ surf that lasts into Saturday. 

We also had an early season storm off Antarctica last weekend that shot us small but fun SSW swell and should arrive later today and into Saturday. Down in SD we'll have waist high+ SW swell and the OC will see chest high surf. Nothing exciting but along with the NW, look for fun clean waves Friday/Saturday. 

On Sunday unfortunately, a windy cold front moves through- with a chance of showers- for well overhead surf and choppy conditions. If you're itching for some waves this weekend- make sure you hit it tomorrow or Saturday. And here's some numbers to crunch on for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:45 AM sunrise
• 5:20 PM sunset

• Water temps are in the high 50's (don't count on boardshorts until at least mid-July)

• And tides are REALLY mellow:
• 2.5' at sunrise
• 1.5' mid-morning
• 2.5' late afternoon

FORECAST:

The windy cold front on Sunday evening rolls outta here by Monday and we've got dropping overhead messy NW windswell early in the day. After that, there's not much on the charts from either the N or S Pacific. Most of next week looks small on the waist high range from the NW. 

Charts show the storm track finally taking aim at us next weekend for more NW swell towards Sunday, but maybe more stormy conditions too. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Today or Saturday as next week looks either windy or waist high! 

WEATHER:

Still no sign of big storms on the horizon but Sunday night will try it's best. Friday and Saturday though look to have the last days of mild Santa Ana weather conditions before a windy cold front moves through late Sunday. Look for winds to gust near 30 mph at the coast and a chance of showers. That clears out Monday for clear cool skies. Most of next week looks dry with sunny conditions. As mentioned above, models show the storm tracking lowering FINALLY and we may get rain again starting late next week to get winter back on track! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Is it just me, or does it seem like Global Warming really makes our weather out of whack?! Besides the obvious warmer temperatures, it tends to be all or nothing with our rain. Last month, we received a deluge of rain, and it looked like we were in for another above average winter. Then January hit, and we've been left high and dry. Hopefully the predicted storms for next weekend will take shape, but until then, do we start worrying? I'll let the LA Times put it into perspective:

All of those dry January days have taken a toll on California’s snowpack, but officials say it’s too early to worry about drought conditions. Surveyors with the California Department of Water Resources trekked through a snow-covered field Thursday at the department’s Phillips station, above Lake Tahoe, to take the second seasonal measurement that serves as an important marker for the state’s water supply.

The result — 40.5 inches deep — is 79% of average for the time of year at that location. If all the snow were to melt at once it would amount to about 14.5 inches of water, said Sean de Guzman, chief of the agency’s snow surveys and water supply forecasting section. The measurement taken on Jan. 2 was a few inches shallower — 33.5 inches — but amounted to a promising start at the time, according to water managers. Then storm activity slowed considerably.

“Snow and precipitation statewide were well below average [in January],” de Guzman said. “But we still need to wait and see what the next few months will bring us.” The snow season typically begins in December and ends on the first day of April, when the snowpack is normally at its highest. However, surveyors will continue to measure the pack as long as there’s snow on the ground, often through May. How much snow falls during this period is critical to California’s annual water outlook and is watched closely by state water managers. Thursday’s reading at the Phillips station was 58% of the April 1 average for that location.

The snowpack provides about 30% of the annual freshwater supply for the state. Its spring and summer runoff feeds rivers and reservoirs, and part of it is distributed to water agencies for farm irrigation, landscaping and urban drinking supplies. The good news, officials say, is that the state’s reservoirs are either at or above their averages for this time of year, thanks in part to solid rainfall last winter.

The Phillips station, 30 miles west of Tahoe, was grassy and dry when surveyors attempted to measure the snowpack in January 2018. In 2019, conditions were significantly better, with the January snowpack measuring 25.5 inches, or 80% of average for the date. That 2019 snowpack — which picked up later in the winter, boosted by a series of atmospheric rivers paired with cold fronts that pounded the state — was ultimately the fifth best in recorded history. “It just shows how unpredictable snow and precipitation are here in California and how just a few atmospheric rivers can really drastically change a water year,” de Guzman said.

Thursday’s lackluster snowpack measurement comes as Southern Californians are preparing for a winter warm-up heading into February. Strong winds that have blown through the region this week began to diminish Thursday, making way for toasty temperatures through Saturday. Highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal are expected before dipping quickly back down on Sunday, said Jayme Laber, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “It’s not going to be hot by summer standards, but for this time of year, we’re definitely going to be warm,” he said.

Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles are expected to be in the low 80s Friday and Saturday. Inland areas of L.A. and Orange counties — including Pasadena, Glendale, Santa Ana and Irvine — will see similar temperatures. Forecasters are predicting more mild temperatures in the mid-70s for coastal cities in the two counties.

A wetter-than-normal November and December had pushed the region above average for rainfall tallies for the water year, which runs from October through September. But precipitation in January was meager, with only a few storms bringing just a smattering of rain to the region, Laber said. “It’s been dry enough that it’s brought us down into the normal range for the water year,” he said. “If the drying trend continues, it’s going to be a long shot to stay in the normal range.”

February is typically the state’s wettest month, but current forecast models are showing mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks. One model predicts a slight chance of showers Sunday night, but it’s still too early for forecasters to say whether Los Angeles will see much, if any, rain from that system, Laber said. Temperatures for the start of this February contrast starkly with the same time last year. In February 2019, the mercury did not reach 70 degrees in downtown Los Angeles for the entire month. It was the first time since forecasters began recording data — at least 142 years — that the region failed to top 69 degrees. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

California or Morocco? Judging by the lack of In-N-Out Burger joints in this photo, I'm guessing Morocco. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Vital

Making A Guest Appearance At The Halftime Show

Patented, Trademarked, and Copyrighted The Surfboard

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Just the best parts of winter. 

SURF:

Lots of surf this week and only a hint of showers. It's like the best parts of winter without all that other stuff you don't want! Good news for us is that there's a few more storms in the Pacific lined up like incoming planes at LAX- but the rain will stay to the north. 

For Friday, the surf starts off slow as our current swell is on it's way out and the 6'+ high tide in the AM doesn't help.We do though start to see some new chest high+ NW by Friday afternoon that rolls into head high surf on Saturday. Sunday drops to the chest high range and we should have semi-clean conditions. And here's the sun and tides for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:49 AM (1st light is around 6:30 for you Dawn Patrollers)
• 5:12 PM (last light is around 5:30 for you After Work Warriors)

• And tides are:
• 5' at dawn 
• 6' at 9 AM
• -1' at 4 PM
• 0' at sunset

FORECAST:

After a fun weekend of surf, Monday kicks into gear with more head high surf from the NW. The swell continues to build into Tuesday evening with overhead surf. Wednesday holds and the 2nd half of next week is smaller but fun in the waist-chest high range. 

We then start to see another swell from the WNW late on Sunday the 1st for shoulder high surf that lasts into Monday the 2nd. 

And if that's not enough, models show an early early early season SW trying to take shape for the 1st also. The storm looks impressive on the charts but it's short lived- so it won't have time to build into something big- but the OC could see shoulder high surf from it. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Saturday and Tuesday and Saturday. 

WEATHER:

Still no major storms in sight. It has to kick into gear again, doesn't it? Regardless, nice weather is on tap for most of the weekend then a little more clouds on Sunday. After that, models show high pressure setting up shop and good weather from Tuesday on. Don't worry though, we're still on track for rainfall this winter, if not slightly above. Here's where we stand:

• Newport Beach: 6.45" so far, which is 100% of normal
• Oceanside: 7.49" so far, which is 126% of normal
• San Diego: 7.23" so far, which is 162% of normal

Now a couple more weeks of sunshine of course will leave us below normal for rainfall, but I'm not thinking that far ahead. Knock on wood. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As if we didn't have enough problems with sharks setting up shop off the Southern California coast in recent years, now it looks like their species are trying to get on our beaches too. Or at least learning to walk. Son of a gun! Is no place safe?! Before I push the panic button, I'll let the experts explain:

So -- some sharks walk. Just not the scary ones. While great whites haunt the deep, walking sharks are content to scuttle in the shallows. They've been walking, or something close to it, for at least 9 million years. They're evolutionary superstars, too: Walking sharks could be the most recently evolved shark on Earth. That's according to findings published this week in Marine and Freshwater Research. Shark scientists spent years sampling the DNA of the only known walking shark species to estimate when they evolved. They found four new species while they were at it.

The youngest species might've evolved less than 2 million years ago. And by evolutionary standards, that's recent -- and a major contradiction to the widely held belief that sharks are slow to evolve. "The discovery proves that modern sharks have remarkable evolutionary staying power and the ability to adapt to environmental changes," said Mark Erdmann, the paper's co-author and Conservation International Vice President of Asia-Pacific marine programs. Sharks are older than dinosaurs, dominating the seas for as long as 400 million years (the oldest dinosaur fossil is thought to be about 240 million years old, by comparison). So the fact that sharks continue to evolve as recently as 399 million years later is pretty remarkable.

Walking sharks, also called "epaulette" sharks for their spots that resemble the military decor, "walk" on their muscular fins to forage for small fish along shallow reefs and sea grass. It's a behavior partially driven by changing sea levels and shifting landscapes, which ultimately influenced where most of the nine known species settled -- eastern Indonesia and neighboring islands, New Guinea and parts of Australia. Based on differences in the sharks' DNA, scientists created estimated evolutionary timelines. They found walking sharks started to split off from their evolutionary relatives around 9 million years ago.

During mass extinction events, carpet sharks, the group that includes walking sharks, were among the "most affected" animals, researchers wrote. Sea levels= rose and ocean temperatures dropped, pushing the sharks to migrate to warmer waters. Sharks off the coast of Australia "hitched a ride" on moving tectonic plates all the way to New Guinea, researchers said. When the plates stopped shifting, the land settled, creating barriers for species to migrate. This might be why the sharks' habitat rarely overlap, they wrote.

Erdman said the group hopes their research could encourage conservationists to add a few of the sharks to the IUCN Red List, a global inventory of threatened species, based on how little is known about them. "A global recognition of the need to protect walking sharks will help ensure they thrive providing benefits for marine ecosystems and to local communities through the sharks' value as tourism assets," he said. "It's essential that local communities, governments and the international public continue working to establish marine protected areas to help ensure our ocean's biodiversity continues to flourish."

BEST OF THE BLOG:

ATTENTION SURFERS! The North County Board Meeting is having their next meeting on Thursday, January 30th! For those of you unfamiliar with the group, it's simple: We're a group of 100 business professionals who have a passion for surfing, giving back to our community, and supporting local businesses. We meet once a month to either surf, do charitable work, or in the case of this month- meet at a local business to support their efforts. On Thursday, January 30th, we'll be meeting at C3bank. You've probably seen their new building in the heart of downtown Encinitas- it's the one with the big image of customer Rob Machado on the window. Come on by from 5:30-7:30 PM to see why Rob, the North County Board Meeting, and other surf owned businesses use their services. We'll have drinks and food so bring your appetite. Special thanks to Secco Wine Club and Wave Soda for supplying drinks for the event! And make sure to bring a friend; we're always open to meeting new surfing business professionals in the area. Thanks for the support and I hope to see you at at C3bank on January 30th! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

It's been fun wearing a 4/3, booties, gloves, and a hood during the dawn patrol lately, but I could use some of this right now. For more shots of winter inspiration, check out Andrew Shields work here. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Brazen

Seen Cats The Movie 3 Times Already!

Did A Tom Curren Head Snap While Doing A Tom Carroll Snap And Snapped My Board

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

In like a lion, out like a lamb, back like a tiger?

SURF:

December sure started out strong- heaps of waves, wind, and surf. January on the other hand has been a typical Southern California winter- sunny skies and fun but not large surf. 

Tonight we have a weak cold front moving through that will leave us tomorrow with chest high NW windswell and messy conditions. Saturday and Sunday look sunny with cleaner conditions- but flat surf. It's a good weekend to follow up on those New Year's resolutions you made. And here's the sun and tides for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:50 AM
• 5:08 PM

• And tides aren't that exciting this weekend:
• 3.5' in the morning
• 0' mid-day
• 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

King Neptune will make up for the small surf over the weekend with solid surf the 2nd half of this month. The storm track though may be lowering again so conditions might be touchy. Regardless, we've got real waves coming. 

First up, we get a small waist high+ bump from the NW on Monday then things kick into gear late Tuesday with shoulder high surf. By Wednesday, a storm off our coast will send W swell to our shores for overhead surf. 

On it's heels is more head high+ W swell around the 26th and behind that is more head high+ W swell on the 29th. The wild card of course is what high pressure will do once these storms get close. Will it block the storms but let the surf in? Or will we get rain & wind along with the swells? Only time will tell. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Tuesday/Wednesday (if conditions stay clean) and the same goes for the 26th and 29th...

WEATHER:

If you haven't noticed by now, we got some developing showers tonight. Nothing big but it helps our drier than normal January. Don't fear though, we're still above average for the season- and may get more rain next week. For Friday, look for the cold front to leave our area and we'll have clear cool skies and breezy conditions from the NW. Saturday and Sunday look to be clear and cool again- but less wind thankfully. For next week, models are all over the place- and I'm not talking about Gigi Hadid and Cindy Crawford. At this point in time, we MIGHT see showers on Tuesday and after that, it's anybody's guess. I do know though that January is one of our rainiest months and we haven't had much the past 2 weeks so I'm putting my money on more rain. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you know by now, El Nino is long gone as evident by our small surf and drier than normal January. But...  the equatorial Pacific seems to be slightly warmer than usual and it could lead to El Nino reforming. Is it due to Global Warming? Who knows, but the water has been freezing around here, we need the rain, and I'm dying to ride my step up! Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has to say:

Ocean and atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific are ENSO-neutral, and forecasters favor neutral through the spring. Wait, don’t go! As usual, there’s a lot more to the ENSO story.

The sea surface temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific, our primary location for monitoring the El Niño climate phenomenon, has been above average for a few months now. In fact, the 3-month-average (the Oceanic Niño Index) in October–December was 0.46°C above normal, which rounds to 0.5°C. “Hey!” you say. “Isn’t that the El Niño threshold?” Indeed it is, but of course El Niño requires more than a couple months of above-average sea surface temperature. According to the El Niño criteria, we also need an expectation that the sea surface temperature will stay above the threshold for several more seasons. (In climate-speak, “season” is any three-month-average period.)  In addition, there’s that pesky requirement that the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows a response.  

Most climate models predict that the sea surface temperature will stay above the long-term average for a couple more months, hovering around the El Niño threshold, before decreasing to near-average through the spring. We’re not yet into the time of year when we have to worry about the spring predictability barrier (essentially, dynamical model forecasts made during April and May tend to be less reliable than those made during other times of the year), lending weight to these predictions.

Based in large part on these model predictions, forecasters estimate a greater than 50% chance the November–January and December–February Oceanic Niño Index values will be about 0.5°C above average. A downwelling Kelvin wave that will continue moving eastward under the surface of the tropical Pacific over the next month or so will also provide a source of warmer-than-average water to keep the surface temperature elevated for at least another month or two.

After that, the largest share of the probability pie, about 60%, goes to neutral, meaning Oceanic Niño Index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C. What all this boils down to is that forecasters do not expect the current warmer equatorial Pacific water to develop into a full-blown El Niño. That said, the recent warm surface conditions do bear monitoring, and the chance of El Niño through the spring is estimated at about 30%. La Niña has the smallest chance of developing through the spring, at around 10%.

All this “x chance of whatever,” “y chance of some other whatever” can seem unnecessarily complicated. Wouldn’t it be easier if our forecast just said “neutral will remain” or “La Niña is coming,” sort of like how your weather forecast just says “high of 70°F tomorrow?” Perhaps, but it wouldn’t give a complete picture of the possible futures.  When we’re making climate forecasts the future is just more uncertain.  By assigning probabilities to each of the three categories, forecasters can provide decision-makers with potentially useful information. Knowing that neutral is most likely (6-in-10 chance) but there is still a 3-in-10 chance of El Niño advises people to remain attentive to this potential. For more on how to understand probabilistic forecasts, check out Tony and Michelle’s posts “Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities” and “Betting on climate predictions.”

Over the few weeks, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole pattern (colder-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean, warmer-than-average in the western Indian Ocean) has finally abated.

Colder-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean and the islands of Southeast Asia—the “Maritime Continent”—has the effect of suppressing convection, meaning there is less rising air, cloud formation, and rain than usual. This contributed to the devastating fire conditions Australia has experienced over the past few months. 

So it looks like we have neutral conditions for the near future with just a slight chance of El Nino reoccurring towards summer. If that means a slight chance of warmer water, more tropical storms, and monsoon moisture in So-Cal, then I'll take it. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

That's all I need in life- an island with a little hut, living off the coconuts, and a skiff to get to that right because I'm sure as heck not paddling that far.  

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Smarter Than I Look

I Ain't Lyin', Girls Be Cryin' 'Cause I'm On TV

My Ideal Wave Size Is Between 4.67' And 9.23'

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Like winter, but without the storms. 

SURF:

Had some surf this week- along with some wind. Sure feels like winter around here- just without the rain. A weak cold front moved through today to kick up our surf and our winds. Tomorrow morning we may have a brief shot of offshore winds with dying chest high NW windswell- so get on it! Saturday morning looks pretty flat- but clean. Then another weak cold front is forecasted to move through late in the day into Sunday morning. We'll have more NW windswell building late Saturday too- but messy conditions of course. Long story short- we'll have off and on windswell this weekend with off and on winds. Here's the sun and tides for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:52 AM
• 5:01 PM

• And tides are pretty straightforward this weekend:
• 6.5' in the morning
• -1.5' in the evening
• That's an 8' tide switch in about 6 hours  (the tide will be dropping over a foot an hour). Plan your session accordingly! 

FORECAST:

Not much change next week. More weak cold fronts are on tap unfortunately. 

We should though have more groundswell filling in on Monday (vs. short interval windswell) for chest to shoulder high waves through Wednesday. Tuesday though may have another weak front move through so wind may be an issue again. 

After that, more NW may arrive next Friday with shoulder high sets again. 

Also on the charts may be some small SW groundswell which could give the OC chest high surf around the 22nd. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Tomorrow morning before the next weak front moves through this weekend. Or Monday- before the next weak front moves through Tuesday! Or next Friday (if another cold front doesn't arrive). 

WEATHER:

Real winter seems to be hibernating for the moment. Just off and on weak cold fronts are in our near future. The current cold front moving through tonight will leave us with cool clear skies on Friday. Then the next weak front moves through on Saturday evening. Then it's clear and cool by Monday. THEN... the next weak front moves through on Tuesday! AND THEN... who knows, but I'm guessing we'll have another weak front late in the week. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

A few years ago, I reported on the potential of ocean wave energy. We live on a watery planet of course. Roughly 71 percent of the Earth is covered in the stuff, and it’s constantly in motion -- tides surging rhythmically; powerful currents coursing beneath the surface; waves rolling across oceans and crashing against continents. All that motion produces mind-boggling quantities of kinetic energy, just a stone’s throw from some of the nation’s most populated areas. With more than 50 percent of the population living within 50 miles of coastlines, there is vast potential to provide clean, renewable electricity to communities and cities across the United States. So why haven’t we tapped into this plentiful, carbon-free power source lapping at our shores in a more aggressive manner? Here's the US Department of Energy to explain:

As it turns out, harnessing the might of the sea is harder than it sounds. The ocean is a vast reservoir of kinetic energy, but it’s also a challenging place to generate electricity. For starters, it’s important to be careful when combining electricity and water. On top of that, salt water can corrode metal components. Barnacles and other sea creatures can cling to exposed surfaces, blocking intakes and weighing down machinery. Storms and forceful waves can damage power systems or loosen them from their moorings. There are also logistical issues, like finding a spot with strong waves or currents (but not too strong), connecting to the grid via an undersea cable, and avoiding conflicts with shipping lanes, fishing grounds, military exercises or any of the myriad other ways we use our bustling coastal waters.

These are real challenges -- but the US Department of Energy Department funds a wide range of projects aimed at improving the performance and durability of wave energy devices, including developing industry standards for components like cables, seals and electronics. They also conduct research that will help developers identify suitable locations for ocean energy projects.

Of all the obstacles facing wave energy today, the biggest isn’t monster waves or encrusting crustaceans -- it's cost. Wind and solar have grabbed most of the renewable energy headlines in recent years because they’ve gotten dramatically cheaper in that time. But that didn’t happen overnight. Decades of research, testing and investment -- much of it supported by Energy Department initiatives -- have given us more reliable, cost-effective hardware, encouraging more installations and driving down energy prices.

The same needs to happen for wave power. Its proponents in the U.S. are still seeking the best way possible to generate electricity from the sea on a scale that makes economic sense. Solving that problem would be a massive step toward realizing this clean energy resource’s potential.

But a Portland and Irish industrial companies (Vigor and Ocean Energy respectively) collaborated to complete the construction of a first of its kind renewable wave energy device called the OE 35 buoy. The 826-ton buoy measures 125 feet by 59 feet with a draft of 31 feet and has a potential rate capacity of up to 1.25 megawatts in electrical power production. Ocean Energy estimates that a 100 megawatt wave farm could power up to 18,750 American homes.

The buoy is shaped like an “L” with a long open chamber that sits below the water line and a turbine above the water. As water enters the open chamber it forces air upward, which turns the turbine to generate electricity. When the water recedes, it creates a vacuum and air rushes in to fill it, keeping the turbine spinning and the cycle repeats.

The buoy is set to be released off the coast of Oregon early in 2020 where it will make a 25-day journey to the U.S. Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Kanehoe Bay Hawaii for 12 months. “These are power stations so they will be in there for you know 30, 40, 50, years, so that’s the kind of time span you're looking at in terms of these devices, these are power plants,” McCarthy said.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, along with the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, funded the $12 million project. “We hope Oregon will show the rest of the country that it is a false premise to suggest we have to choose between a robust economy and a healthier climate,” Vigor’s vice president of environmental services Alan Sprott said. “In Vigor we believe in, and in this project we’ve shown, that clean energy technologies can be an important part of our manufacturing economy that can drive jobs to engineer and build future clean energy infrastructure.”  

The United States has a substantial wave energy resource off its coasts which could deliver up to 15% of the nation’s annual electricity demand. In Oregon alone, the estimated potential value to the local economy is $2.4 billion per annum with an associated 13,630 jobs.   “As we transition to a clean energy economy we have to recognize the wonderful potential and the great potential of marine energy can help us meet our clean energy needs but also create so many good paying jobs,” Oregon Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici said. Ocean Energy’s long term plan is to build five more buoys for deployment at the Oregon wave Energy Test Site off the coast of Newport, Oregon.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The East Coast is more than just Outer Banks barrels. Beware though- this spot has Great Whites about twice the size you find here in Southern California. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Wealthy Beyond My Wildest Dreams

Taking Harry's Place In The Palace

Celebrating 25 Years Of THE Surf Report

THE Surf Report- Late Edition

Sorry for the late report, I just woke up from New Year's Eve. 

SURF:

The rain has stopped but the surf hasn't. Plenty of waves this past week with on again/off again winds. Today was pretty clean and we had leftover NW groundswell for overhead sets. 

For Saturday, the surf drops with only chest high sets, but we have more NW windswell arriving Sunday afternoon for shoulder high sets. Water temps are still high 50's and here's what going on with the tides and sun this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:51 AM
• 4:56 PM

If you haven't noticed, the days are getting longer now that the winter solstice (December 20th) is behind us! Sure it's only 5 more minutes of sun each day, but still. 

• And tides are mellow this weekend:
• 4' at sunrise
• 1' at lunch
• 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

The NW windswell mentioned above for Sunday afternoon peaks on Monday morning for shoulder high surf. Models are showing a Santa Ana offshore wind event too for Monday morning through Tuesday. Good news is that it will be offshore Monday morning. Bad news is that the offshore winds will kill the swell so Tuesday looks flat. 

Wednesday afternoon though picks up again with more short interval NW windswell and we're back to head high sets on Thursday. 

After that, we've got more NW windswell- with a touch more groundswell finally- showing around the 12th of January. And further out, looks like more storms on the horizon so we should be set through at least the 3rd week of January with waves. Who knows when the rain will return though. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Monday morning with peaking swell and offshore winds. Or more swell again towards the 9th or the 12th or the..

WEATHER:

Well the rain is gone. For now. Looks like we have the OPPOSITE of rain starting late Sunday and rolling into Tuesday with Santa Ana offshore winds. Temps will be mild this weekend then warm to the mid-70's on Monday/Tuesday. High pressure breaks down mid-week and we're back to cooler conditions and night/morning low clouds/fog. Based on the models, looks like best guess for rain is at least mid-month. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

With mild weather on tap this weekend, I thought it was time for THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY!:

1995: Heavy rain started on 1/3 ended on this day. The result was flash flooding in Seal Beach, Norco, and Oceanside. A mudslide killed six at La Conchita near Santa Barbara. Six to 12 inches of snow fell in the mountains. Snow also fell in the high desert, with two inches of heavy, wet snow down to 2300 feet. 3.16 inches of rain fell in Riverside, the wettest January day on record and the second wettest day on record.

1987 (Epic El Nino year by the way): Heavy rain and snow from a powerful Pacific storm that started on this day and ended on 1/5 produced one to two inches plus of rainfall in the northern Inland Empire. 2.20 inches fell at Chino. Lots of street flooding occurred, including road washouts in the high desert. 1.68 inches fell at San Diego, Cuyamaca Park 2.73 inches, Julian 2.59 inches, Lemon Grove 1.52 inches, National City 1.40 inches, El Cajon 1.34 inches, Escondido 1.30 inches, Coronado 0.95 inch and Del Mar 0.80 inch. Two died on slick roads in San Diego County. The San Diego River flooded Mission Valley, stranding cars and closing roads, including Friars Rd. Lots of street flooding in Pacific Beach, Sorrento Valley and Spring Valley near the Sweetwater River. Sewage spilled into Mission Bay. Road washouts occurred in the high desert. Scattered power outages also resulted. Mud slides occurred on the Sunrise Highway. A mud slide in Pomona blocked traffic on the 60 freeway. A ski resort in Big Bear received up to two feet of snow at the higher lifts. Up to 15 inches fell elsewhere in the San Bernardino Mountains. Nine inches fell in Mt. Laguna, four inches in Cuyamaca Park and a few inches in Julian.

1974: Heavy rain and snow began on 1/3 and ended on 1/5. One drowning death  occurred near Temecula. Many highways were closed because of flooding and mud slides. Over 18 inches of snow fell in the San Bernardino Mountains. Flurries were reported in Palm Springs. As a result, structures and a few roofs collapsed due to the weight of snow. Power lines and trees snapped.

1971: It was 3° in Idyllwild, the third lowest temperature on record. It was 29° at Pt. Loma and Chula Vista, 28° in La Mesa, 26° in El Cajon, 24° in Lakeside, 8° at Mt. Laguna, and 5° at Palomar Mountain. Ice skating was done on Lake Cuyamaca.

1959: A strong winter storm hit the region on this day and on 1/5. Roof damage and animals were killed at San Diego. Considerable property damage resulted from flooding and mud slides. Rattlesnake Creek in Poway inundated the city.

1955: High surf from a big storm hit the coast on this day and on 1/5. Coastal damage occurred in San Diego and Orange Counties. Boats and harbors were damaged.

1949: It was 28° in LA, the lowest temperature on record (also observed on 2/6/1883 and 1/7/1913). It was 8° at Palomar Mountain, the lowest temperature on record, which also occurred on 12/30/1947.

1902: It was 81° in San Diego on 1/3 and on this day, the highest temperature of all of 1902, remarkably in January!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Pros and cons of the Superbank:

Cons:

• CROWDED
• White Lightening, Parko, and Dingo somehow don't hear you hooting behind them
• All the rest of the locals don't hear you hooting behind them
• Limited swell window
• 12 year olds rip harder than you do

Pros:

• Warm water
• Waves so long your legs turn to jelly
• Sand bottom barrels
• It's an honor to watch White Lightening, Parko, and Dingo surf in front of you
• The fun doesn't stop once you hit the sand

There you have it- it's a tie. If you have $1500 for a plane ticket, decide for yourself...

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Constructive

My Resolution Is To Stop Adding A Year To My Age On My Birthday

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