In like a lion, out like a lamb, back like a tiger?
SURF:
December sure started out strong- heaps of waves, wind, and surf. January on the other hand has been a typical Southern California winter- sunny skies and fun but not large surf.
Tonight we have a weak cold front moving through that will leave us tomorrow with chest high NW windswell and messy conditions. Saturday and Sunday look sunny with cleaner conditions- but flat surf. It's a good weekend to follow up on those New Year's resolutions you made. And here's the sun and tides for the weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:50 AM
- 5:08 PM
- And tides aren't that exciting this weekend:
- 3.5' in the morning
- 0' mid-day
- 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
King Neptune will make up for the small surf over the weekend with solid surf the 2nd half of this month. The storm track though may be lowering again so conditions might be touchy. Regardless, we've got real waves coming.
First up, we get a small waist high+ bump from the NW on Monday then things kick into gear late Tuesday with shoulder high surf. By Wednesday, a storm off our coast will send W swell to our shores for overhead surf.
On it's heels is more head high+ W swell around the 26th and behind that is more head high+ W swell on the 29th. The wild card of course is what high pressure will do once these storms get close. Will it block the storms but let the surf in? Or will we get rain & wind along with the swells? Only time will tell. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
Tuesday/Wednesday (if conditions stay clean) and the same goes for the 26th and 29th...
WEATHER:
If you haven't noticed by now, we got some developing showers tonight. Nothing big but it helps our drier than normal January. Don't fear though, we're still above average for the season- and may get more rain next week. For Friday, look for the cold front to leave our area and we'll have clear cool skies and breezy conditions from the NW. Saturday and Sunday look to be clear and cool again- but less wind thankfully. For next week, models are all over the place- and I'm not talking about Gigi Hadid and Cindy Crawford. At this point in time, we MIGHT see showers on Tuesday and after that, it's anybody's guess. I do know though that January is one of our rainiest months and we haven't had much the past 2 weeks so I'm putting my money on more rain.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you know by now, El Nino is long gone as evident by our small surf and drier than normal January. But... the equatorial Pacific seems to be slightly warmer than usual and it could lead to El Nino reforming. Is it due to Global Warming? Who knows, but the water has been freezing around here, we need the rain, and I'm dying to ride my step up! Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has to say:
Ocean and atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific are ENSO-neutral, and forecasters favor neutral through the spring. Wait, don’t go! As usual, there’s a lot more to the ENSO story.
The sea surface temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific, our primary location for monitoring the El Niño climate phenomenon, has been above average for a few months now. In fact, the 3-month-average (the Oceanic Niño Index) in October–December was 0.46°C above normal, which rounds to 0.5°C. “Hey!” you say. “Isn’t that the El Niño threshold?” Indeed it is, but of course El Niño requires more than a couple months of above-average sea surface temperature. According to the El Niño criteria, we also need an expectation that the sea surface temperature will stay above the threshold for several more seasons. (In climate-speak, “season” is any three-month-average period.) In addition, there’s that pesky requirement that the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows a response.
The sea surface temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific, our primary location for monitoring the El Niño climate phenomenon, has been above average for a few months now. In fact, the 3-month-average (the Oceanic Niño Index) in October–December was 0.46°C above normal, which rounds to 0.5°C. “Hey!” you say. “Isn’t that the El Niño threshold?” Indeed it is, but of course El Niño requires more than a couple months of above-average sea surface temperature. According to the El Niño criteria, we also need an expectation that the sea surface temperature will stay above the threshold for several more seasons. (In climate-speak, “season” is any three-month-average period.) In addition, there’s that pesky requirement that the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows a response.
Based in large part on these model predictions, forecasters estimate a greater than 50% chance the November–January and December–February Oceanic Niño Index values will be about 0.5°C above average. A downwelling Kelvin wave that will continue moving eastward under the surface of the tropical Pacific over the next month or so will also provide a source of warmer-than-average water to keep the surface temperature elevated for at least another month or two.
After that, the largest share of the probability pie, about 60%, goes to neutral, meaning Oceanic Niño Index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C. What all this boils down to is that forecasters do not expect the current warmer equatorial Pacific water to develop into a full-blown El Niño. That said, the recent warm surface conditions do bear monitoring, and the chance of El Niño through the spring is estimated at about 30%. La Niña has the smallest chance of developing through the spring, at around 10%.
All this “x chance of whatever,” “y chance of some other whatever” can seem unnecessarily complicated. Wouldn’t it be easier if our forecast just said “neutral will remain” or “La Niña is coming,” sort of like how your weather forecast just says “high of 70°F tomorrow?” Perhaps, but it wouldn’t give a complete picture of the possible futures. When we’re making climate forecasts the future is just more uncertain. By assigning probabilities to each of the three categories, forecasters can provide decision-makers with potentially useful information. Knowing that neutral is most likely (6-in-10 chance) but there is still a 3-in-10 chance of El Niño advises people to remain attentive to this potential. For more on how to understand probabilistic forecasts, check out Tony and Michelle’s posts “Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities” and “Betting on climate predictions.”
All this “x chance of whatever,” “y chance of some other whatever” can seem unnecessarily complicated. Wouldn’t it be easier if our forecast just said “neutral will remain” or “La Niña is coming,” sort of like how your weather forecast just says “high of 70°F tomorrow?” Perhaps, but it wouldn’t give a complete picture of the possible futures. When we’re making climate forecasts the future is just more uncertain. By assigning probabilities to each of the three categories, forecasters can provide decision-makers with potentially useful information. Knowing that neutral is most likely (6-in-10 chance) but there is still a 3-in-10 chance of El Niño advises people to remain attentive to this potential. For more on how to understand probabilistic forecasts, check out Tony and Michelle’s posts “Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities” and “Betting on climate predictions.”
Over the few weeks, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole pattern (colder-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean, warmer-than-average in the western Indian Ocean) has finally abated.
Colder-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean and the islands of Southeast Asia—the “Maritime Continent”—has the effect of suppressing convection, meaning there is less rising air, cloud formation, and rain than usual. This contributed to the devastating fire conditions Australia has experienced over the past few months.
So it looks like we have neutral conditions for the near future with just a slight chance of El Nino reoccurring towards summer. If that means a slight chance of warmer water, more tropical storms, and monsoon moisture in So-Cal, then I'll take it.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
That's all I need in life- an island with a little hut, living off the coconuts, and a skiff to get to that right because I'm sure as heck not paddling that far.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Smarter Than I Look
I Ain't Lyin', Girls Be Cryin' 'Cause I'm On TV
My Ideal Wave Size Is Between 4.67' And 9.23'
