Fun early, bad late.
SURF:
Great surf this past week + great conditions = great surf. Should be fun early on this weekend before all heck breaks loose.
First up though, we have a slight bump in the surf today as new small NW fills in for chest high+ surf that lasts into Saturday.
We also had an early season storm off Antarctica last weekend that shot us small but fun SSW swell and should arrive later today and into Saturday. Down in SD we'll have waist high+ SW swell and the OC will see chest high surf. Nothing exciting but along with the NW, look for fun clean waves Friday/Saturday.
We also had an early season storm off Antarctica last weekend that shot us small but fun SSW swell and should arrive later today and into Saturday. Down in SD we'll have waist high+ SW swell and the OC will see chest high surf. Nothing exciting but along with the NW, look for fun clean waves Friday/Saturday.
On Sunday unfortunately, a windy cold front moves through- with a chance of showers- for well overhead surf and choppy conditions. If you're itching for some waves this weekend- make sure you hit it tomorrow or Saturday. And here's some numbers to crunch on for the weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:45 AM sunrise
- 5:20 PM sunset
- Water temps are in the high 50's (don't count on boardshorts until at least mid-July)
- And tides are REALLY mellow:
- 2.5' at sunrise
- 1.5' mid-morning
- 2.5' late afternoon
FORECAST:
The windy cold front on Sunday evening rolls outta here by Monday and we've got dropping overhead messy NW windswell early in the day. After that, there's not much on the charts from either the N or S Pacific. Most of next week looks small on the waist high range from the NW.
Charts show the storm track finally taking aim at us next weekend for more NW swell towards Sunday, but maybe more stormy conditions too. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
Today or Saturday as next week looks either windy or waist high!
WEATHER:
Still no sign of big storms on the horizon but Sunday night will try it's best. Friday and Saturday though look to have the last days of mild Santa Ana weather conditions before a windy cold front moves through late Sunday. Look for winds to gust near 30 mph at the coast and a chance of showers. That clears out Monday for clear cool skies. Most of next week looks dry with sunny conditions. As mentioned above, models show the storm tracking lowering FINALLY and we may get rain again starting late next week to get winter back on track!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Is it just me, or does it seem like Global Warming really makes our weather out of whack?! Besides the obvious warmer temperatures, it tends to be all or nothing with our rain. Last month, we received a deluge of rain, and it looked like we were in for another above average winter. Then January hit, and we've been left high and dry. Hopefully the predicted storms for next weekend will take shape, but until then, do we start worrying? I'll let the LA Times put it into perspective:
All of those dry January days have taken a toll on California’s snowpack, but officials say it’s too early to worry about drought conditions. Surveyors with the California Department of Water Resources trekked through a snow-covered field Thursday at the department’s Phillips station, above Lake Tahoe, to take the second seasonal measurement that serves as an important marker for the state’s water supply.
The result — 40.5 inches deep — is 79% of average for the time of year at that location. If all the snow were to melt at once it would amount to about 14.5 inches of water, said Sean de Guzman, chief of the agency’s snow surveys and water supply forecasting section. The measurement taken on Jan. 2 was a few inches shallower — 33.5 inches — but amounted to a promising start at the time, according to water managers. Then storm activity slowed considerably.
“Snow and precipitation statewide were well below average [in January],” de Guzman said. “But we still need to wait and see what the next few months will bring us.” The snow season typically begins in December and ends on the first day of April, when the snowpack is normally at its highest. However, surveyors will continue to measure the pack as long as there’s snow on the ground, often through May. How much snow falls during this period is critical to California’s annual water outlook and is watched closely by state water managers. Thursday’s reading at the Phillips station was 58% of the April 1 average for that location.
The snowpack provides about 30% of the annual freshwater supply for the state. Its spring and summer runoff feeds rivers and reservoirs, and part of it is distributed to water agencies for farm irrigation, landscaping and urban drinking supplies. The good news, officials say, is that the state’s reservoirs are either at or above their averages for this time of year, thanks in part to solid rainfall last winter.
The result — 40.5 inches deep — is 79% of average for the time of year at that location. If all the snow were to melt at once it would amount to about 14.5 inches of water, said Sean de Guzman, chief of the agency’s snow surveys and water supply forecasting section. The measurement taken on Jan. 2 was a few inches shallower — 33.5 inches — but amounted to a promising start at the time, according to water managers. Then storm activity slowed considerably.
“Snow and precipitation statewide were well below average [in January],” de Guzman said. “But we still need to wait and see what the next few months will bring us.” The snow season typically begins in December and ends on the first day of April, when the snowpack is normally at its highest. However, surveyors will continue to measure the pack as long as there’s snow on the ground, often through May. How much snow falls during this period is critical to California’s annual water outlook and is watched closely by state water managers. Thursday’s reading at the Phillips station was 58% of the April 1 average for that location.
The snowpack provides about 30% of the annual freshwater supply for the state. Its spring and summer runoff feeds rivers and reservoirs, and part of it is distributed to water agencies for farm irrigation, landscaping and urban drinking supplies. The good news, officials say, is that the state’s reservoirs are either at or above their averages for this time of year, thanks in part to solid rainfall last winter.
The Phillips station, 30 miles west of Tahoe, was grassy and dry when surveyors attempted to measure the snowpack in January 2018. In 2019, conditions were significantly better, with the January snowpack measuring 25.5 inches, or 80% of average for the date. That 2019 snowpack — which picked up later in the winter, boosted by a series of atmospheric rivers paired with cold fronts that pounded the state — was ultimately the fifth best in recorded history. “It just shows how unpredictable snow and precipitation are here in California and how just a few atmospheric rivers can really drastically change a water year,” de Guzman said.
Thursday’s lackluster snowpack measurement comes as Southern Californians are preparing for a winter warm-up heading into February. Strong winds that have blown through the region this week began to diminish Thursday, making way for toasty temperatures through Saturday. Highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal are expected before dipping quickly back down on Sunday, said Jayme Laber, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “It’s not going to be hot by summer standards, but for this time of year, we’re definitely going to be warm,” he said.
Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles are expected to be in the low 80s Friday and Saturday. Inland areas of L.A. and Orange counties — including Pasadena, Glendale, Santa Ana and Irvine — will see similar temperatures. Forecasters are predicting more mild temperatures in the mid-70s for coastal cities in the two counties.
A wetter-than-normal November and December had pushed the region above average for rainfall tallies for the water year, which runs from October through September. But precipitation in January was meager, with only a few storms bringing just a smattering of rain to the region, Laber said. “It’s been dry enough that it’s brought us down into the normal range for the water year,” he said. “If the drying trend continues, it’s going to be a long shot to stay in the normal range.”
February is typically the state’s wettest month, but current forecast models are showing mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks. One model predicts a slight chance of showers Sunday night, but it’s still too early for forecasters to say whether Los Angeles will see much, if any, rain from that system, Laber said. Temperatures for the start of this February contrast starkly with the same time last year. In February 2019, the mercury did not reach 70 degrees in downtown Los Angeles for the entire month. It was the first time since forecasters began recording data — at least 142 years — that the region failed to top 69 degrees.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
California or Morocco? Judging by the lack of In-N-Out Burger joints in this photo, I'm guessing Morocco.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Vital
Making A Guest Appearance At The Halftime Show
Patented, Trademarked, and Copyrighted The Surfboard
