THE Surf Report- Early Early Edition!

The EBS has officially run out of batteries. 

SURF:

I probably should have turned off the Emergency Boardriding System a few days ago but the surf has been so darn fun (thank you Major Hurricane Marie). But all good things must come to an end and we're back to waist high surf around here, cloudy skies, and morning winds. So what's the weekend look like? 

We had a little activity off Antarctica last week so there's a little bump from the SW arriving Friday along with some NW wind/groundswell. Look for waist high+ surf Friday afternoon and chest high sets on Saturday. On Sunday we get a reinforcement from the NW for more consistent chest high surf. One item of note: we have a weak cold front forecasted to move through Saturday evening/Sunday morning so we may have bumpy conditions (as evident by this morning's less than stellar conditions) and light showers. Plan your session accordingly. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:49 AM sunrise   
• 6:21 PM sunset  
• And in case you're wondering when Daylight Saving will end, it's Sunday, November 1st. Sun will come up 6:08 at AM and sunset is 4:56 PM!

• And our water temps are in the high 60's

• And the tides this weekend are pretty boring:
• 4' at sunrise
• 3' before lunch
• 4.5' at dinner 

FORECAST:

After the combo swell this weekend, Monday is more of the same and there's nothing of interest until Friday unfortunately. 

Models do show a storm taking form tomorrow off Antarctica/South America which should give us chest high+ SSW next weekend. So until then, enjoy the next couple of days. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET: 

This weekend with small but fun combo swell or next weekend with slightly better SSW swell. 

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we get a small taste of fall this weekend as a weak cold front swings through the area late Saturday into Sunday. No real rain is forecasted but we will have clouds, a little breeze, and maybe 1/10" of precip. Fire up that chimney! Behind it, high pressure sets up shop for sunny skies and temps in the mid 70's next week. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

It's a tale of 2 cities when it comes to East Coast vs. West Coast hurricanes this season. As you know by now, the East Coast is breaking records while out here on the West Coast, not so much. Here's our friends at the Weather Channel to give us perspective:

Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico today is likely to be the 10th named storm to landfall in the mainland United States during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, breaking a record that has stood for more than a century. Delta is expected to hit the northern Gulf Coast Friday into early Saturday. When it does, the mainland U.S. will have seen 10 landfalls from tropical storms and hurricanes this year since the barrage began in late May. That would break the 1916 record of nine mainland U.S. landfalls in a season, according to Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University.

Four of the landfalls so far in 2020 have been from hurricanes, including Hanna, Isaias, Laura and Sally. Delta is currently forecast to be the fifth hurricane landfall of this year. Five U.S. hurricane landfalls would be more than double the average of one to two hurricane landfalls per year, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Of the 10 landfalls, Delta is likely to be the seventh to occur along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to South Texas. Three of those – Cristobal, Marco and Laura – were in Louisiana, and Delta has a chance to join them as the state's fourth.

Much of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts have already been in at least one tropical storm warning in the 2020 hurricane season from the first nine landfalling storms. That even includes coastal New England as far north as Downeast Maine, which was briefly in a tropical storm warning from Isaias. While it didn't officially make landfall, the season's first storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, also prompted tropical storm warnings in eastern North Carolina as it brushed by in mid-May.

Only Florida's Upper Keys and the west coast of Florida, east of Apalachicola, has yet to be placed under a tropical storm or hurricane warning so far this season. When considering warnings issued inland, even parts of western Maine have been in a tropical storm warning this season before the west coast of Florida. After Oct. 4, an average hurricane season delivers another two named storms. So it's possible we're not done after Delta, as far as U.S. impact is concerned.

And if you look at just the named storms this summer (that includes storms making landfall AND staying out to sea), that number is an astounding 26 storms with 9 becoming hurricanes and 3 of those major hurricanes. For comparison's sake, a 'normal' season only has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and almost 3 of those becoming major hurricanes (a major hurricane is a category 3 storm with sustained winds over 111 mph). 

As far as the West Coast/Eastern Pacific goes, we've only had a couple storms give us swells this summer here in SD. That would be Hurricane Karina and Hurricane Marie.

We've had 14 named storms, only 4 hurricanes, but 3 have those were major hurricanes. For comparison's sake, a normal season would have 15 named storms, 7 of those hurricanes, and 3 of those major hurricanes. Being that we're in the middle of a La Nina, the slightly below normal activity is expected (unfortunately). But fear not- the official season ends on November 30th so we still have time. 

BUT... historically speaking, most of our hurricanes will have already formed by October 15th and the last of the major hurricanes by September 20th. Let's hope history is wrong! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I literally think that lip is taller than the wave. No seriously- that's a 6' lip and a 4' wave. Hope you know how to duck dive. Like real deep. 

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Polished

Runnin' With The Devil  

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