May drizzle? For shizzle!
SURF:
Spring is in full swing! This past week had overcast conditions, more wind then you'd like, and almost fun surf- if it wasn't for the overcast conditions and the wind of course. For the weekend- more of the same!
We've got new SSW filling in tomorrow for chest high surf, overcast conditions, and more early W winds. Saturday picks up to the shoulder high range (bigger towards the OC) and that peaks on Sunday. And right on track for spring- drizzle or light showers are expected late Saturday into Sunday morning from the 6,000' deep marine layer. Beach weather? Not exactly. But it will generate a little NW windswell so it may peak up the new SSW swell. So we've got surf this weekend- but ugly conditions. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:50 AM sunrise
- 7:41 PM sunset
- Water temps earlier in the week warmed up to 65 with all the sunshine then dropped slightly to 62 today with the W wind and overcast conditions. Expect it to hold in the low 60's over the weekend.
- And the tides this weekend are a little odd. Again:
- 0' at sunrise
- and pretty much 3' at lunch through sunset
FORECAST:
The SW/NW starts to back off Monday/Tuesday for chest high surf then we fire up the Emergency Boardriding System as we get a reinforcement from the SW/NW on Wednesday for head high surf- and better weather.
Charts this weekend show a large storm taking shape off Antarctica which would give us head high+ S swell next weekend (and bigger in the OC). After that storms in the southern hemisphere take a slight breather but we still should have chest high SW swell later in the month.
WEATHER:
I guess it's good things are predictable around here, right? Spring is acting like spring with overcast cool conditions. We've got another low pressure system moving by to the N this weekend and as it does, the marine layer will deepen and squeeze out some drizzle or light showers during the nights. Temps at night will be in the high 50's and during the day, low 60's; only a 3 or 4 degree difference. Yawn. (And if you want some beach weather this weekend, head 2 hours E to Palm Springs where it will be 90 and sunny. Anyone have an idea when those wave pools will be done)?! The low pressure moves to the E early next week and we're back to low clouds in the nights/mornings and sunny afternoons. Temps should be in the low 70's by then. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out North County Surf on Twitter here!
BEST BET:
Tough call as this weekend will have waves but winds could be an issue (which was the call LAST weekend). Or wait until mid week for the EBS to kick in with good SW/NW. OR... wait until next weekend with solid S swell!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you may have heard earlier this week, Tropical Storm Andres formed in the Eastern Pacific off Mainland Mexico on May 9, becoming the earliest named storm on record to develop in that area (important for us because that's where Southern California sees their hurricane summer swells). Andres' formation at 8 a.m. PDT on Sunday marked the earliest in the satellite era, or since the mid-1960s, that a named storm has developed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The previous record was set by Tropical Storm Adrian, which formed 12 hours later May 9th, 2017 (yeah, I know, technicalities).
On that note, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins this weekend on May 15th. Besides being a swell generator during our summers, does it matter for the rest of the U.S.? Yep. Sometimes quite impressively. I'll let the Weather Channel take it from here:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is often overshadowed by the Atlantic, but it can have impacts in the United States. At two weeks earlier than the official beginning of the Atlantic season, this is due to warmer waters and the fact that wind shear is typically weaker earlier in the season compared to the Atlantic.
Many Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes move away from land and are only a concern to shipping interests. But sometimes, the weather pattern can allow these systems to affect Mexico, Central America and the southwestern U.S. Hawaii is also occasionally threatened by tropical storms and hurricanes that make the long trek from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific.
Here's a breakdown of how Eastern Pacific storms can be a threat to the Southwest and Hawaii, including recent examples.
On that note, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins this weekend on May 15th. Besides being a swell generator during our summers, does it matter for the rest of the U.S.? Yep. Sometimes quite impressively. I'll let the Weather Channel take it from here:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is often overshadowed by the Atlantic, but it can have impacts in the United States. At two weeks earlier than the official beginning of the Atlantic season, this is due to warmer waters and the fact that wind shear is typically weaker earlier in the season compared to the Atlantic.
Many Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes move away from land and are only a concern to shipping interests. But sometimes, the weather pattern can allow these systems to affect Mexico, Central America and the southwestern U.S. Hawaii is also occasionally threatened by tropical storms and hurricanes that make the long trek from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific.
Here's a breakdown of how Eastern Pacific storms can be a threat to the Southwest and Hawaii, including recent examples.
Southwest Tropical Flood Threat:
Arizona is the Southwest state with the history of the most tropical storm encounters. According to the National Weather Service in Tucson, eight tropical storms or depressions have remained intact and impacted Arizona directly since 1965. Five of these were tropical storms with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher.
Flooding rainfall is typically the biggest concern from any tropical systems that survive the journey into the southwestern U.S. Sometimes, this rainfall can be triggered by the remnant moisture of former Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes. While such a storm might no longer be intact, the remnant tropical moisture can fuel drenching rains as it moves into the region.
In August 2020, moisture from short-lived Tropical Storm Fausto played a role in a rare flare-up of lightning in Northern California, including around the Bay area. The lightning started several devastating wildfires in the region since the storms had little rainfall. Moisture from both Tropical Storm Ivo and Hurricane Lorena reached the Southwest in 2019. Moisture from Ivo's remnants triggered flash flooding in Las Vegas in late August.
The interaction between moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Dolores in July 2015 and a disturbance moving into California resulted in historic July rains in Southern California. Both Los Angeles and San Diego broke all-time July rainfall records at a time of year when rainfall is almost always scant in Southern California. San Diego in fact received over 1" of rain from Dolores. To put that into perspective, an inch of rain during a storm in our WINTER months is significant. And for July? We typically do not receive ANY precipitation. Also in 2015, moisture partially associated with Hurricane Linda led to flooding that killed 20 people in Utah on Sept. 4, according to the National Hurricane Center.
From the Eastern Pacific to Hawaii:
Hurricane Douglas was an extremely close call for the Hawaiian Islands late last July. Unlike a number of other hurricanes that originated in the Eastern Pacific, Douglas didn't lose its intensity that quickly as it tracked into the Central Pacific toward Hawaii. Hurricane warnings had to be issued for Maui, Oahu and Kauai since Douglas' forecast track was a potential threat to those islands. Luckily, the southern eyewall of Douglas passed just north of Maui, Oahu and Kauai, sparing those islands from seeing the worst of the hurricane's strong winds and heavy rainfall.
In the case of Oahu, the hurricane's center passed just 30 miles north of the northern tip of Oahu on July 26.
Hurricane Lane's Hawaii approach in 2018 was another close shave for the nation's 50th state. Lane developed over the Eastern Pacific in August 2018 and crossed into the Central Pacific Ocean. After intensifying to a Category 5 hurricane southeast of Hawaii, Lane weakened significantly as it passed more than 100 miles south of the island chain. Parts of the islands were swamped by flooding rainfall.
Also in 2018, Olivia was the first tropical storm to make landfall over Lanai and Maui. Olivia triggered flooding on Maui and downed trees on Maui and Oahu a few weeks after Lane.
In 2014, Iselle made landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii as a tropical storm on Aug. 8. There were reports of structural damage, trees downed, power outages and some flooding on the Big Island.
Hurricane Iniki in 1992 might be the most serious example of the impacts Eastern Pacific tropical systems can generate in Hawaii. Iniki is the costliest hurricane in Hawaii's history; It originated in the Eastern Pacific on Sept. 5 and moved into the Central Pacific, where it became a powerful hurricane. The island of Kauai was hit especially hard by damaging winds when Iniki made landfall there as a Category 4 storm. Many structures were wiped out by storm surge flooding and large, battering waves along the southern coast.
Hawaii is usually protected from tropical storms and hurricanes approaching directly from the east due to cooler waters and strong winds aloft, which contribute to weakening. Many other tropical storms and hurricanes have passed safely to the south of Hawaii because of high pressure north of the islands. It's the rare cases illustrated by Iniki and Lane – when a hurricane first moves south of the island, then arcs northward – that pose a greater threat to the state.
A California Rarity:
Southern California is the only portion of the Pacific coastline in the Lower 48 that could see a tropical storm or hurricane landfall from the Eastern Pacific. Although such an event is extremely rare, history shows it can happen. On Oct. 2, 1858, the only known hurricane to hit Southern California slammed into San Diego. Sustained hurricane-force winds resulted in extensive property damage.
Only one tropical storm has made landfall in Southern California since then. In September 1939, a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph hit Long Beach. Flooding caused moderate crop and structural damage, according to the NWS in Oxnard. High winds surprised the shipping industry in the area, killing 45 people.
While technically not a tropical storm at the time, what had been Hurricane Kathleen raced northward into the desert of southeastern California in September 1976. Wind gusts to 76 mph were measured in Yuma, Arizona, and a 4- to 6-foot wall of water destroyed 70 percent of homes in Ocotillo, California.
Cool ocean temperatures in the path of the tropical systems trying to reach the Pacific coast are the primary reason landfalls are so rare in Southern California. Coastal waters get dramatically cooler as you move north along the coast from Mexico.
As in 1858, any hurricane would have to be moving fast enough, over waters just warm enough, to maintain its intensity on the way northward in order to have a California landfall. How warm does the water have to be? Let's just say above 80 degrees is a rough estimate. And since the water temps along our shores in Southern California usually hover in the mid-70's during the summer... we're safe.
So does the early formation of Andres this week a harbinger of things to come this summer? Like an active hurricane season? Most likely not since we're still technically in a La Nina phase which is cooler than average water temperatures which does not bode well for hurricane formation. We should though be in a neutral phase by summer (neither La Nina nor El Nino) so there's a chance of an average hurricane season- which is better than last summer I guess. The National Hurricane Center's Eastern Pacific hurricane outlook for 2021 comes out in a couple weeks and I'll make to report on it here. Keep your fingers crossed for good surf this summer.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I L-O-V-E set ups like this. Feeling brave? Surf the outside point at 6-8'. Want something a little more mellow? Try the inside sandbar at 2-4'. On a side note, where the heck is everyone?!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Swell
Pretty Sure I Just Saw A Bengal Tiger On My Front Lawn
Surfed 38,480 Waves And Counting
Michael W. Glenn
Swell
Pretty Sure I Just Saw A Bengal Tiger On My Front Lawn
Surfed 38,480 Waves And Counting
