THE Surf Report

 

May Gray? More like Mayday! Mayday!

SURF:

Last week I lamented about the May drizzle (For shizzle)! This week? It's getting serious. Lots of good surf has met its match in May Gray and the dreaded SW winds. So I'm sending out a distress call: Mayday! Mayday! Anyone hear me? Who can help with this unrelenting wind, overcast conditions, cool air temps, and drizzle? We may have to wait until Sunday for that. So until then, we've got strong SW winds for Friday as yet ANOTHER low pressure system moves by to the N. As it does, winds will be an issue, we'll have partly cloudy conditions again, and the surf will be blown to bits. 

If the wind wasn't blowing and it was sunny, you'd see we had a fun NW windswell in the water and building chest high S swell. Saturday is a transition day as the weather will start to clean up but won't be perfect. The NW will also be on it's way down as the S will be peaking for head high surf and overhead towards the OC. Sunday, things should clean up and we'll have leftover head high combo swell. I would have turned on the Emergency Boardriding System if it wasn't for all this wind! But I'll take what I can get. Plus- it's the weekend! And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 5:45 AM sunrise 
• 7:46 PM sunset
• Over 14 hours of sun! (If it wasn't so cloudy)

• The only bonus to all the SW wind? Water has been pooling up in the Southern California Bight and we're holding at 65 degrees. 

• And the tides this weekend are up and down:
• 4' at sunrise
• 0.5' at lunch
• 5' in the evening
• 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

Looks like we'll have nice weather by Monday and leftover S swell for shoulder high sets. 

Mid week looks slow with just waist to chest high combo swell- and the return of overcast conditions.

Charts though show a storm taking shape today off Antarctica and we could have more chest to shoulder high surf next weekend. And the return of the sun? Hope so. 

WEATHER:

I know it's May and we're supposed to have overcast conditions, but sheesh! I don't know if I'll be able to handle June Gloom too. As advertised above, look for partly cloudy, breezy conditions on Friday and some sprinkles. Saturday lightens up slightly but we'll still be in the mid-60's and only partial clearing along the coast. Sunday through Wednesday should see a little more sun at the beaches then... more May Gray the 2nd half of next week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf!

BEST BET:

Sunday with leftover but good S swell or late next week with new smaller SW swell and overcast conditions again. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As I reported last week, we're still technically in a La Nina phase (which is cooler than average water temperatures) and doesn't bode well for hurricane formation. We should though be in a neutral phase by summer (neither La Nina nor El Nino) so there's a chance of an average hurricane season. Well, that optimism took a slight hit this week: The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Eastern Pacific hurricane outlook for 2021 came out a couple days ago, and even though it wasn't the kiss of death, don't bet on an ABOVE average hurricane season this summer. Here's the scoop:

• A 20% chance of an above average hurricane season
• A 35% chance of a normal hurricane season
• And a whopping 45% chance of a below normal season

How does that translate to actual storms? Not that bad, but my money is on the under:

• 15 named storms in a normal season. NHC says we could see anywhere from 12-18 this season.
• 8 actual hurricanes in a normal season. NHC says we could get anywhere from 5-10. 
• 4 major hurricanes in a normal season (major being a category or above with 111 mph+ winds. That's the real swell maker for us). We could see anywhere between 2-5 says the NHC this season. 

So as you can see, we'll most likely be stuck somewhere in the middle when it comes to our chances of hurricane surf this summer but let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Never seen a swell bend like this before. Even Black's Beach on a good day doesn't get this twisted. And of course, I have to ask again... where the heck is everyone?!

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Groovy
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