Welcome to winter!
SURF:
I decide to hike Montana a few days ago and in return, I miss a kicka$$ storm. So let's just bypass fall and go straight to winter, shall we? What a busy time around here. Lightening, combo swells, above average rainfall, a flat ocean, and windy cold fronts (more on that below). I'm not a fan of that Santa Ana fire weather anyway so this early winter is a blessing.
Let's get down to business though- great surf last weekend was replaced by small surf and thunderstorms. Southern California's new slogan should be: If the waves don't impress you, the weather will.
We've got an early season cold front moving down tonight and as it does, more rain will appear, making conditions suspect, and not bring a lot of surf- expect an occasional bumpy chest high set towards SD from the NW.
Later in the weekend though, we should see some fun chest high SW arrive Sunday afternoon; hopefully the water and weather will be cleaner by then. ON A SIDE NOTE... some tar balls have washed up on the shores of Oceanside and Carlsbad today. Even though they can be naturally occurring, there seems to be an overabundance of them. Make sure to check with your local lifeguards before paddling out this weekend. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:49 AM sunrise
- 6:22 PM sunset
- Water temps are hovering in the mid-60's
- And tides are pretty simple this weekend:
- 2' at sunrise
- 6' at lunch
- 0' at sunset
FORECAST:
Fun southern hemi swell will be peaking Monday with consistent chest high surf and shoulder high sets towards the OC. The storm rolled along off Antarctica for a few days, so we should see at least chest high surf through the week. The only issue though is that we have another cold front moving through late Monday in which this one will be more windy than wet. Look for NW winds late Monday and maybe Tuesday morning which will kick up the NW windswell but crush the SW swell.
The 2nd half of the week should be cleaner with leftover SW and a touch of steep NW again towards the 15th.
After that... models show a small storm off New Zealand in a few days which could give us waist to chest high SW around the 18th.
WEATHER:
Been a fun few weeks around here with all the lightening. Looks like that's subsiding but the rain and wind will be picking up. Look for showers late tonight into Friday with up to 1/3" accumulating. Saturday should be cool and nice while Sunday/Monday has sunny fall weather on tap. Our next storm takes aim late Monday into Tuesday with less rain- maybe 1/10" at most?- and lot of NW wind in the 20 mph range. Local mountains may get a dusting too above 5000'. After that- it's anyone's guess- but I'm assuming we'll have nice weather for the 2nd half of the week. As far our current rain totals go, we're looking great considering it's a La Nina year AND Santa Ana fire season. The rain on Monday dropped 0.6" at the coast, tonight's storm should drop 0.3", and Tuesday's weaker storm may drop 0.1". We could be looking at 1" total for all 3 storms and normal for the season is about 1/2 of that. Take that Drought! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Monday before the rain starts with peaking SW or later in the week with smaller combo swell once the water cleans up...
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
With the recent shark attack on a surfer in Northern California this past weekend, I thought we'd have a look at the current population of sharks and the chances of getting bitten. According to the California Fish and Wildlife Department, there have been 198 incidents of contact between sharks and people from the 1950s to this August (that's less than 3 a year in 228 miles of coastline). 14 were fatal (as a comparison, there have been 8 deaths from bear attacks in just Yellowstone National Park since 1872), 106 were classified as nonfatal, and there were no injuries in 78 cases. Surfers were involved in 77 of the incidents. According to department statistics, an overwhelming majority of cases, 176, were confirmed or suspected to have involved great white sharks. Even with that said, sharks have evolved over millions of years as an apex predator, and yet, attacks are still low. If they wanted to chase us all day long, trust me, they would.
Sharks have called the Earth's oceans home for hundreds of millions of years and adapted to thrive in harsh environments. While these animals of the deep blue have evolved to survive cold and dark climates, sharks unfortunately are no match for the ultimate predator- humans. That's why the world famous Shark Week was launched 33 years ago by the Discovery Channel to encourage shark conservation and educate the public on these underwater predators.
The world's shark and ray populations plummeted 70% from 1970 to 2018, with overfishing as a primary cause, according to a 2019 study published in the journal Nature. Of the 31 oceanic species of sharks and rays, 24, or over three-quarters, of the species are now threatened with extinction due to their steep drop in numbers, the study said. With Hollywood blockbusters like "Jaws" and "The Meg" fanning the flames of fear and paranoia in humans, these underwater animals have suffered a serious image problem. But here's some interesting facts you may not know...
Sharks have called the Earth's oceans home for hundreds of millions of years and adapted to thrive in harsh environments. While these animals of the deep blue have evolved to survive cold and dark climates, sharks unfortunately are no match for the ultimate predator- humans. That's why the world famous Shark Week was launched 33 years ago by the Discovery Channel to encourage shark conservation and educate the public on these underwater predators.
The world's shark and ray populations plummeted 70% from 1970 to 2018, with overfishing as a primary cause, according to a 2019 study published in the journal Nature. Of the 31 oceanic species of sharks and rays, 24, or over three-quarters, of the species are now threatened with extinction due to their steep drop in numbers, the study said. With Hollywood blockbusters like "Jaws" and "The Meg" fanning the flames of fear and paranoia in humans, these underwater animals have suffered a serious image problem. But here's some interesting facts you may not know...
One of the most important aspects of sharks is that they balance the food chain. As sharks were killed off from overfishing in the Sea of Cortez, located between Baja California and the Mexican mainland, other creatures swooped in to take their place on the food chain. Wahoo and hammerhead sharks, along with other fish species like marlin and swordfish, have seen a steep decline in population due to commercial and local fishing in the area. Scientists believe the decline in sharks is one of the reasons the Humboldt squid now call the Baja home in greater numbers. The creature can grow up to 7 feet (2.1 meters) long and weigh over 100 pounds (45.4 kilograms). The squid only live for a couple years, but they reproduce at a much faster rate than sharks.
Also, some sharks are partially warm-blooded. Despite having a reputation of being cold-blooded, some sharks- like the great white and the salmon shark- are able to internally regulate their temperature, according to a June study published by the British Ecological Society. The study found endothermic fish, which are able to regulate their own body temperature, swam over one-and-a-half times faster than ectotherms, animals that rely on the outside temperature to regulate their body heat. Researchers weren't able to make any conclusions on how the warm-bloodedness could be helpful to sharks, but they hypothesized that it could help them when searching for food or migrating.
Sharks also tend to have one of the longest life spans of creatures in the animal kingdom. Using radiocarbon dating to estimate how old Greenland sharks were for a 2016 study, researchers discovered the underwater creatures lived to be at least 272 years old, with the largest of the group clocking in at around 392 years old. The animals don't reach maturity until the ripe age of 150 years old, and they are the longest-lived vertebrate known to humans.
Some can even glow in the dark. A small number of sharks are bioluminescent and glow hundreds of feet below the ocean's surface, according to a February study published in Frontiers in Marine Science. One of the sharks is the kitefin shark (Dalatias licha), which spans nearly 6 feet (1.8 meters). It's also the world's largest known bioluminescent shark. Very little is known about sharks that glow because the sharks mostly roam in the deep sea, which begins over 656 feet (200 meters) below the ocean surface. Researchers also discovered the southern lanternshark (Etmopterus granulosus) and blackbelly lanternshark (Etmopterus lucifer) have bioluminescent abilities.
Sharks nearly went extinct millions of years ago- despite having the reputation as an apex predator, sharks died off at alarming rates millions of years ago. Over 90% of open-ocean sharks disappeared from the planet around 19 million years ago, scientists said. Researchers said they could not confirm what caused the near-mass extinction event, and it could have lasted from a single day to 100,000 years. Based on current research, there was no climate or ecosystem crisis during this time, which leaves a gaping hole of knowledge for scientists to do more research on and unlock the mystery.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Would you travel all the way to Italy for the great food or this? If you consider yourself a true surfer, I already know what your answer is. And you can still enjoy a great meal after a long session.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
The Power That Be
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Michael W. Glenn
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