The EBS Is On Standby...
SURF:
Nice conditions this past week and a new NW today resulted in rideable surf for north county SD and better waves in south SD (once the tide dropped mid-day).
That swell drops tomorrow but we've got more new fun NW arriving on Saturday. This looks to be shoulder high+ so I think I'll turn on the Emergency Boardriding System. We have a weak front passing by to the N on Saturday morning too so conditions may be a little iffy but not too bad. By Sunday, we have leftover chest high+ surf and cleaner conditions. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:59 AM sunrise
- 6:06 PM sunset
- Water temps are in the mid-60's
- And here are the tides this weekend:
- 3' at sunrise
- 5.5' late morning
- down to 0.5' towards sunset
FORECAST:
After a fun weekend of surf, the waves won't stop as we've got a cornucopia of swells lined up (like that fall reference)?
We've got a small wait high SW filling in on Monday with chest high sets towards the OC.
We also have a rapidly increasing NW too for head high sets towards sundown. We should though see deteriorating conditions late in the day (more on that below). On Tuesday, the EBS is blaring with overhead sets from the peaking NW, but conditions will be messy from a passing cold front. Wednesday is cleaner with plenty of leftover head high+ NW and bigger towards SD.
Late in the week we'll see more waist high+ S (and bigger in the OC) and...
models show more SW/NW swells towards November 7th. So stoked! Hopefully our drought is over (waves AND weather).
WEATHER:
The 'big' atmospheric river that's all over the news will hit Central Cal late this weekend but not much for us unfortunately. While they'll get upwards of 3", we'll just get 1/4" on Monday. Beggars can't be choosers so I'll take anything this early in the season to help out the drought. Once that departs, look for breezy NW winds on Tuesday and cleaner conditions the 2nd half of next week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Saturday with fun NW. Or later Monday with new small SW and building NW. OR... Wednesday with leftover good NW and cleaner conditions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
One thing I learned as a kid is that if the Earth continues to warm, not only will humans be displaced from the changing climate, but so will animals. And that goes for our friends in the sea. Ever notice those Pelagic red crabs washing up on our beaches a few years ago- even as far north as San Francisco? Those are normally found in Baja. That's a LOOOOONG trip for thos lil' critters. Erica Nielsen and Sam Walkes are researchers at UC Davis and posted the following article about the changes we're seeing along our shores:
Land–based heatwaves have a less obvious though equally important sibling: marine heatwaves. In 2013, the largest marine heatwave on record began when an unusually warm mass of water formed in the Gulf of Alaska. By the next summer, the warm water spread south, raising average water temperatures along the United States west coast by 3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (2-4 Celsius). In 2015, a strong El Niño event strengthened the marine heatwave further.
Land–based heatwaves have a less obvious though equally important sibling: marine heatwaves. In 2013, the largest marine heatwave on record began when an unusually warm mass of water formed in the Gulf of Alaska. By the next summer, the warm water spread south, raising average water temperatures along the United States west coast by 3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (2-4 Celsius). In 2015, a strong El Niño event strengthened the marine heatwave further.
And so “the Blob,” as oceanographers have dubbed this huge body of warm water, was born. Interestingly, a number of species moved northward to places along the west coast of the U.S. where the water had previously been too cold for them.
We are a marine evolutionary biologist and a marine ecologist, and are currently studying these recent arrivals to the northern California coast. Through our work, we hope to understand what has allowed species to not only move with the Blob, but persist after the water cooled.
WITH WARM WATER CAME NEW SPECIES
The Blob changed weather as well as ocean currents, led to the deaths of thousands of marine mammals and birds, and caused harmful algal blooms. Animals also moved during the years of warm water with the Blob. Species that usually live in more southern, warmer waters expanded their ranges into northern California and Oregon.
Pelagic red crabs, usually found off the Baja California peninsula, washed up by the hundreds on beaches north of San Francisco. Keen naturalists were surprised to find that populations of bright green sunburst anenomes, giant owl limpets and pink volcano barnacles had in some places increased by the hundreds. Ecologists even discovered a new population of angular unicorn snails over 150 miles north of their original range edge.
The Blob was not destined to last forever. It eventually faded away and water temperatures returned to normal.
COOLING TEMPS
Many species that arrived with the Blob didn’t stay within the colder northern waters once the heatwave passed. For example, open water species like the common dolphin followed the warm waters north, then migrated back southward once waters cooled. But many coastal species are sessile—meaning they are stuck to rocks for all their adult lives. But these species are not attached to rocks when they are young. During the early larval stages, they ride ocean currents and can travel dozens of miles to find new coastlines to live on.
The Blob’s warm waters and shifting currents allowed the larvae of many species to move far past their northern boundaries while remaining in their environmental comfort zone. However, when the marine heatwave ended, the real survival test began.
Our team has been tracking these northern coastal populations to see which species have persisted post-Blob. Each year our team returns to the cold, wave-pounded northern California shores to monitor existing populations and look for new recruits—young individuals that survived their larval stage and successfully settled on rocks.
Every year we are excited to find new barnacle, snail and slug recruits. Of the 37 coastal species our team has been tracking, at least five have maintained small but stable northern populations after the warm waters of the Blob disappeared.
WHO GOES FROM NORTHERN TOURIST TO LOCAL?
In addition to monitoring populations, our team is also gathering ecological and evolutionary information about these species. The giant owl limpet is one of the species that has persisted, and we want to identify what traits helped them survive after the Blob ended.
In general, traits that help a species settle in a new environment include the ability to grow and reproduce faster, choose suitable habitats, defend territories or have more offspring. To test some of these ideas, our team is conducting ecological experiments along the California coast, and we are annually recording growth for more than 2,500 individual limpets. We are also experimentally pitting juvenile owl limpets against larger adults and other competing limpet species. We hope that this work will reveal whether the new limpets on the block can grow rapidly while competing with others.
But the ecology is only half of the range expansion story. In tandem with the ecological experiments, our lab is sequencing owl limpet genomes to identify genes that potentially code for traits like faster growth or competitive prowess. It’s possible to figure out on a genetic level what is allowing certain species to survive.
CONSERVING SHIFTING SPECIES IN A CHANGING OCEAN
Considering the effects of ongoing climate change, it is good news that species can move to track their preferred climate. It’s important to note that while species that move due to climate change are not invasive, these shifts can change existing ecosystems. For example, the Hilton’s nudibranch, a predatory sea slug, expanded northward during the Blob, which led to a decline in local nudibranchs.
Research shows that marine heatwaves are becoming more common thanks to climate change. By understanding the ecological and evolutionary attributes that allowed some species to endure and even thrive during and after the Blob, we may be able to predict what will allow species to expand further during future marine heatwaves.
The Blob 2.0 is coming; what changes will it bring?
BEST OF THE BLOG:
It's baaaaaaaack. The world famous North County Board Meeting Halloween mixer that is. Come join the crew next Friday, October 29th to check the surf, network, support your community, grab a bite, and as always with our Halloween meeting, wear your ugliest t-shirt. Prizes will be given out (value less than $5, we're on a budget here) and it's a great way to kick off the weekend. 7 AM start time and wrapping up around 9 AM (depending if the surf is any good). Look for the tent at the entrance to Seaside. See you then!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
If a wave could speak, this one would say 'Outta my way! Coming through!'
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Unmistakable
Just Bought The Slightly Used Name Kanye West
I Will NOT Be Surfing Here on Halloween: Phantom's, Boneyards, Ghost Trees, Tombstones, or Dungeons
Michael W. Glenn
Unmistakable
Just Bought The Slightly Used Name Kanye West
I Will NOT Be Surfing Here on Halloween: Phantom's, Boneyards, Ghost Trees, Tombstones, or Dungeons
