THE Surf Report- Early Edition

 

Wintertime And The Livin's Easy

SURF:

Besides the cold water and cold air temps, I'd say the last days of fall looked like summer around here as small waves and sunny skies greeted us this week. But as you're reading this, you probably noticed we're transitioning to winter and not a moment too soon. We've got a storm barreling down upon us today and it's going to increase our surf- along with the winds. 

For tonight, look for messy conditions and chest high+ surf from the NW. Friday isn't much better as we'll have jumbled conditions, head high NW, and dirty water. Saturday the surf backs off to the waist to chest high range- but the water will be suspect. Sunday should be jumbled again from another cold front and back to shoulder high sets from the NW; a lot going on this weekend. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:49 AM sunrise
• 4:49 PM sunset

• Water temps are barely hanging on to 60 degrees

• And tides aren't doing much this weekend:
• about 2.5' at sunrise
• up to 4' midday
• and down to 0.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

We'll see more NW increasing late in the day on Monday to the waist to chest high range but that's due to another storm heading our way on Tuesday. So look for the surf to pick up again from the NW in the head high range BUT... conditions may be messy yet again. Surf drops fairly quickly Wednesday/Thursday BUT... models show another storm headed our way for New Years Eve?! 

If so, the NW may pick up again in the shoulder high range (and suspect conditions). 

In regards to all these storms, the ideal track is for them to form off Japan, roar above Hawaii, and aim swell towards California from a W or WNW directions. That way we get some good clean groundswell before the storm arrives. The recent storms though have been blocked off Japan by high pressure under Alaska. So we're left with storms forming off the British Columbia coast and racing towards us from the NW. Three issues with that:

1. The storms are too N and can't wrap into Southern California, losing energy.
2. The storms don't have time to form clean groundswells- rather short period NW.
3. And when the swell does arrive- it's met with wind and rain here.

Hopefully high pressure off Alaska breaks down later this winter.

WEATHER:

This La Nina is turning out to be a dud (which is a good thing). We're due for another bout of rain tonight- and if the models are correct- through the first of the year. First up is the rain moving in from the N today that will steadily increase into Friday morning. We might see a solid 1 1/2+" from this. We get a slight break Xmas morning then the rain increases again late in the day into Sunday morning. This will be less of a storm but maybe we'll squeeze out another 1/2". After that, it's cool and cloudy then models show another round of rain towards Wednesday (maybe 1/2)". All in all, we could see 2+" of rain and temps in the mid-50's during the day and mid-40's during the nights. And forecast charts show more rain New Years?! Take all of this with a grain of salt though as these storms could arrive earlier/later or have more/less rain. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Early today (Friday); even though there's not much surf, at least it's clean (weather and water). After that, it's anyone's guess as the arrival of the NW swells next week may be met with rain/wind yet again. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

With the impending rain the next few days, what could our rainfall totals potentially be as we head into 2022? Here's the latest:

• Newport Beach: 2.37" so far (92% of normal). After the storms to close out 2021 (potentially an additional 2"), maybe we could be at 185% of normal to start the year?
• Oceanside: 3.08" so far (108% of normal). After the storms, maybe 165% of normal?
• San Diego: 2.11" so far (93% of normal). After the storms, maybe 195% of normal?
• But don't get too excited and think this La Nina is fools gold. As you'll remember, October started with a bang and we received 1" of rain. Then November went bone dry- 0" to be exact. Even though this December looks to be a wet month for us, January could go dry again. Who knows. 

And as you know, it's very rare in Southern California to have a Wet Christmas- let along a White Christmas. Always seems like there's a mild Santa Ana Christmas morning with sunny skies and temps in the 70's. So this Christmas looks to be exciting around here (get that firewood ready)! But history has shown us, we do get a little excitement around here from time to time on Christmas Day...

• 2019: A strong thunderstorm generated a weak tornado over Ventura Harbor. Only very minor damage was reported.
• 2007: Strong Santa Ana winds struck the Inland Empire. Gusts reached 85 mph at Fremont Canyon (>58 mph for nine consecutive hours) and 58 mph at Ontario. Trees were downed, big rigs overturned, power outages resulted.
• 2003: A strong storm hit the region with the following rainfall amounts: 8.58 inches at Lytle Creek, 5.79 inches at Devore, 5.59 inches at Santiago Peak, 5.40 inches at Forest Falls, and 3.94 inches at Volcan Mountain. 0.35 inch to 2.5 inches fell at lower elevations. 16 died in mudslides and debris flows in areas burned by wildfires during the previous October: 14 in a church camp in Waterman Canyon north of San Bernardino and two in a campground in Devore.
• 2000: Santa Ana winds blew on this day and ended on 12/26. Gusts of 87 mph were measured at Fremont Canyon. Damage and injuries occurred in Mira Loma and in Orange County.
• 1988: A week of subfreezing temperatures hit Southern California starting on 12/24 and ending on 12/30. On 12/27 it was coldest, with most valleys down in the 20s, Big Bear Lake dropped to -2°, and Cuyamaca fell to 5°. Five died as a result of the cold.
• 1987: A cold snap descended on the region. It was 9° at Mt. Laguna and 22° in Valley Center on this day. On 12/26 it was 15° in Julian and Mt. Laguna, 16° in Campo, 22° in Poway, 25° in El Cajon (an all-time low), 30° in Del Mar, and 37° in San Diego. Extensive damage to avocado and citrus crops resulted.
• 1971: A series of wet storms hit the region during this week starting on 12/22 and ending on 12/28. 19.44 inches fell in Lake Arrowhead, 15.26 inches in Lytle Creek, 12.31 inches in Big Bear Lake, 7.49 inches in Palomar Mountain, 5.45 inches in San Bernardino, 4.98 inches in Santa Ana, 3.92 inches in Redlands, 3.04 inches in Riverside, 2.28 inches in San Diego, 1.24 inches in Palm Springs, and 1.02 inches in Victorville. Extensive street flooding occurred across the region. This day marked the start of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which ended on 12/28. This also occurred on 2/18-24/2005, 1/13-19/1993, and 2/14-20/1980.
• 1953: It was 23° in Palm Springs, the lowest temperature on record for December, and the third lowest on record.
• 1940: 4.02 inches of rain fell in Palm Springs, the greatest daily amount on record for December, and the second greatest daily amount on record (greatest: 4.57 inches on 1/23/1943).
• 1921: A succession of heavy storms from 12/17 to 12/27 produced a total of 29.38 inches at Mt. Wilson (only 1.48 inches had fallen there since 5/23). 30.64 inches fell at Squirrel Inn at Lake Arrowhead. From 12/24 to 12/26, 6.76 inches fell in LA. Widespread flooding of roads, bridges, railroads, farms, etc., resulted. Lake Arrowhead rose seven feet. Flooded areas along the Santa Ana and San Gabriel Rivers were easily seen from atop Mt. Wilson from the coast to 20 to 30 miles inland.
• 1891: A period of very cold weather started on 12/23 and ended on 12/30. San Diego pools had ice 0.5 inch thick on the surface and ice one inch thick formed on oranges on trees in Mission Valley

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Yes, this is the in the Mediterranean Sea. And no, I'm not telling you where it is. Bah humbug to you too. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Incredible
Senior VP, Santa Claus Inc., North Pole Region
Made The Cover Of Surfer Magazine A Record 8 Times