THE Surf Report

 

Three's A Crowd!

SURF:

Hasn't this been an odd week. 

We saw surf earlier in the week with dreamy conditions that was replaced by the Triple Crown Of Suffering: Strong south winds, cold ocean temps, and red tide! Today is the latter unfortunately as good combo swell was interrupted again from the 3 headed monster. For tomorrow into the weekend, looks like slightly better weather (and less S winds) while the red tide lingers. 

As far as the surf goes, we've got more NW windswell filling in on Friday along with a new SW swell. Most spots are chest high+. Saturday drops slightly and on Sunday we get a slight reinforcement from NW windswell for more chest high surf. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:02 AM sunrise
• 7:30 PM sunset  

• And I know we always get cold water this time of year from upwelling, but man it seems particularly cold lately. Nor-Cal is 48-50, Central Cal is low 50's, and we're slightly better down here at 57-59. Summer can't come soon enough!

• And here's the tides this weekend:
• 0' at sunrise
• 4' late morning
• down to 1' late afternoon 
• and up to 4' again at sunset

FORECAST:

Both hemispheres continue to be active- so get it before it's gone- you know how summer can get around here. To start the week, we have background SW with a touch of new NW windswell for Tuesday; look for more chest high waves. 

Charts today show another good storm off Antarctica and we should see shoulder high SW around Thursday the 5th with bigger sets in the OC. 

SD also gets into the act next weekend with shoulder high sets from the NW next Saturday. All we need now is the water to warm up, the sun to come out, the winds to calm down, and the red tide to go away. Is that asking too much?...

WEATHER:

The persistent clouds that ring true for May Gray have subsided fortunately but the SW winds continue. Looks like our weather will fluctuate slightly the next few days but no rain or stubborn fog is in the forecast. Look for pleasant weather the next 7 days with temps in the high 60's, mostly sunny skies by mid-day, and typical spring time winds from the SW. Some days may have a little more clouds and some days a little less. And some days a little more wind and some days... you guessed it- a little less. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

• Friday with new fun chest high SW.
• Late next week with more shoulder high SW/NW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Continuing on last week's theme of wave energy, I came across an article recently from Australia's Macquarie University about climate change making ocean waves more powerful, threatening to erode many coastlines. Here's what they had to say:

Sea level rise isn’t the only way climate change will devastate the coast. Our research found it is also making waves more powerful, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. We plotted the trajectory of these stronger waves and found the coasts of South Australia and Western Australia, Pacific and Caribbean Islands, East Indonesia and Japan, and South Africa are already experiencing more powerful waves because of global warming. This will compound the effects of sea level rise, putting low-lying island nations in the Pacific — such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands — in further danger, and changing how we manage coasts worldwide.

Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the heat gained by the planet. This has a range of impacts, including longer and more frequent marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and providing an energy source for more powerful storms. But our focus was on how warming oceans boost wave power. We looked at wave conditions over the past 35 years, and found global wave power has increased since at least the 1980s, mostly concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere, as more energy is being pumped into the oceans in the form of heat. And a more energetic ocean means larger wave heights and more erosive energy potential for coastlines in some parts of the world than before.

Ocean waves have shaped Earth’s coastlines for millions of years. So any small, sustained changes in waves can have long-term consequences for coastal ecosystems and the people who rely on them. Mangroves and salt marshes, for example, are particularly vulnerable to increases in wave energy when combined with sea level rise. To escape, mangroves and marshes naturally migrate to higher ground. But when these ecosystems back onto urban areas, they have nowhere to go and die out. This process is known as “coastal squeeze”. These ecosystems often provide a natural buffer to wave attack for low-lying coastal areas. So without these fringing ecosystems, the coastal communities behind them will be exposed to more wave energy and, potentially, higher erosion.

Ocean waves are generated by winds blowing along the ocean surface. And when the ocean absorbs heat, the sea surface warms, encouraging the warm air over the top of it to rise (this is called convection). This helps spin up atmospheric circulation and winds. In other words, we come to a cascade of impacts: warmer sea surface temperatures bring about stronger winds, which alter global ocean wave conditions.

Our research shows, in some parts of the world’s oceans, wave power is increasing because of stronger wind energy and the shift of westerly winds towards the poles. This is most noticeable in the tropical regions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the subtropical regions of the Indian Ocean. But not all changes in wave conditions are driven by ocean warming from human-caused climate change. Some areas of the world’s oceans are still more influenced by natural climate variability — such as El Niño and La Niña — than long-term ocean warming.

In general, it appears changes to wave conditions towards the equator are more driven by ocean warming from human-caused climate change, whereas changes to waves towards the poles remain more impacted by natural climate variability. While the response of coastlines to climate change is a complex interplay of many processes, waves remain the principal driver of change along many of the world’s open, sandy coastlines.

So how might coastlines respond to getting hit by more powerful waves? It generally depends on how much sand there is, and how, exactly, wave power increases. For example, if there’s an increase in wave height, this may cause increased erosion. But if the waves become longer (a lengthening of the wave period), then this may have the opposite effect, by transporting sand from deeper water to help the coast keep pace with sea level rise.

For low-lying nations in areas of warming sea surface temperatures around the equator, higher waves - combined with sea level rise - poses an existential problem. People in these nations may experience both sea level rise and increasing wave power on their coastlines, eroding land further up the beach and damaging property. These areas should be regarded as coastal climate hotspots, where continued adaption or mitigation funding is needed.

If warming continues in line with current trends over the coming century, we can expect to see more significant changes in wave conditions along the world’s coasts than uncovered in our backward-looking research. However, if we can mitigate greenhouse warming, studies indicate we could still keep changes in wave patterns within the bounds of natural climate variability.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Continuing on the theme of wave energy...

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Spry
Will Be Performing At Harrah's Laughlin Next Month
Developing A Process To Turn Red Tide Into Organic Hawaiian Punch

THE Surf Report

Why Don't We Take The Ol' EBS Out For A Spin?

SURF:

Fun surf this past week- and semi-clean conditions today- was met with COLD spring time water temps. If you don't mind wearing a 4/3, then you probably had fun. 

For tonight into Friday, look for a weak cold front to move through the area and whip up the winds as well as head high+ NW windswell and messy conditions. For Saturday morning, conditions clean up and we're left with head high NW wind/groundswell in the AM and breezy chest high sets in the afternoon. SD will be overhead. 

For Sunday, weather looks great and we've got waist high+ NW in the AM (bigger in SD) with building waist high SW in the PM (bigger in the OC). And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:09 AM sunrise
• 7:25 PM sunset  
• and in case you were wondering, Tofino, the popular British Columbia surf town, on June 20th (longest day of the year), sunrise is at 5:18 AM and sunset is 9:32 PM. Imagine paddling out before 5 AM or rinsing off around 10 PM? Crazy. 

• The wind earlier in the week dropped our water temps to the high 50's! We should see it stay the same or drop slightly from the wind again on Friday but rise slightly earlier in the week with the mild heat wave. 

• And here's the tides this weekend:
  • 3' at sunrise
  • -0.5' late morning
  • and back up to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

Both hemispheres have been active the past 10 days and that's good news for us. So let's just turn on the ol' Emergency Boardriding System, shall we? The small SW that was building on Sunday evening will show better on Monday for chest high surf in N County SD and better sets in the OC. 

We also have more chest high NW showing in N County SD and head high sets in SD. Most everywhere will have fun combo swell. 

Then more SW shows on Tuesday for shoulder high sets in northern SD and head high+ in the OC. 

Late in the week, we see yet again more chest high NW/SW. 

And charts show more NW/SW again in early May?! Good news all the way around. 

WEATHER:

April showers bring May flowers (and one less day to run the sprinklers). A quick moving cold front will swing through tonight and give us around 1/10" of rain and gusty winds. For Friday afternoon, look for partly sunny skies and breezy conditions. Saturday sees sunny skies and pleasant temps- then Monday/Tuesday warms up to 80 at the beaches. For the 2nd half of next week, temps lower and low clouds return for normal spring weather. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

• Saturday morning with good NW 
• Most of next week with good NW/SW combo

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you've taken a hard wipeout on a big day (who hasn't), then you know how powerful waves can be. And during the winter of 2013-2014, the UK and Ireland were buffeted by a number of unusually powerful storms, causing widespread floods, landslides, and coastal evacuations. But the impact of the storm season stretched far beyond its effect on urban areas, as a new study in Earth-Science Reviews details. Here's what they had to say:

Geoscientists from Williams College in Massachusetts found that the storms had an enormous influence on the remote, uninhabited coast of western Ireland—one that shows the sheer power of ocean waves in a whole new light.

The rugged terrain of Ireland’s western coast includes gigantic ocean boulders located just off a coastline protected by high, steep cliffs. These massive rocks can weigh hundreds of tons, but a strong-enough wave can dislodge them, hurling them out of the ocean entirely. In some cases, these boulders are now located more than 950 feet inland. Though previous research has hypothesized that it often takes tsunami-strength waves to move such heavy rocks onto land, this study finds that the severe storms of the 2013-2014 season were more than capable.

Studying boulder deposits in Ireland’s County Mayo and County Clare, the Williams College team recorded two massive boulders—one weighing around 680 tons and one weighing about 520 tons (that's roughly 1 million pounds EACH)—moving significantly during that winter, shifting more than 11 and 13 feet, respectively. That may not sound like a significant distance at first glance, but for some perspective, consider that a blue whale weighs about 150 tons. The larger of these two boulders weighs more than four blue whales.

Smaller boulders (relatively speaking) traveled much farther. The biggest boulder movement they observed was more than 310 feet—for a boulder that weighed more than 44 tons (88,000 pounds)!

These boulder deposits "represent the inland transfer of extraordinary wave energies," the researchers write. "[Because they] record the highest energy coastal processes, they are key elements in trying to model and forecast interactions between waves and coasts." Those models are becoming more important as climate change increases the frequency and severity of storms.

So the next time you take a few sets on the head and you tell your friends you got pounded out there, now you're know just how much. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The reason I play the lottery. Anyone have 5 bucks I can borrow?

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Brainiac
King of America
Taking A Boat Trip To Bali! Sorry, Read That Wrong- Taking A Bike Ride To Beacons...

THE Surf Report

 

SURF:

Kind of odd to have a typical spring here this past week. No heat waves, no storms, no bombing surf. Just weak cold fronts moving by to the N, afternoon sea breezes, cool sunny skies, and water temps clinging to 60. 

Surf sure has been fun though with consistent NW windswells and fun SW groundswell underneath. For Friday, we have leftover SW/NW for chest high sets and a touch smaller on Saturday. By Sunday, we see a small reinforcement of NW windswell but still just waist high+ surf. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:19 AM sunrise
• 7:19 PM sunset  
• that's 13 hours to surf! 

• Water temps last week got a double bonus- a heat wave, then consistent S winds to pool up the warm water along the CA coast. Result? 65 degrees and 3/2 fullsuits. As you know though, the NW winds have returned and we're back to 4/3's and chilly 60 degree water temps. Don't feel bad though- Santa Cruz and San Fran were in the high 40's earlier this week! 

• And the tides are pretty much between 1' and 4' this weekend:
• 1' at sunrise
• 4.5' mid-morning
• down to 0.5' mid-afternoon
• and back up to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

Good news: forecast charts are showing a couple large storms forming in the N Pacific AND S Pacific. 

To start the week though, we've got fun chest high SW filling in on Monday along with small NW windswell off and on all week. 

Then if the models are correct, a SOLID overhead NW will fill in next Friday into the weekend. BUT... models are also hinting at a late season cold front arriving too. Hopefully it won't mess up the swell. 

On its heels (if the models are correct again) is a SOLID overhead SW swell for Monday the 25th. Hopefully the weekend storm won't dirty up the water! Regardless, we should have good swells coming. 

WEATHER:

Nice weather on tap Friday/Saturday with temps near 70 at the beaches and sunny skies. A weak front moves by to the N on Saturday evening and that will kick up the low clouds on Sunday. Weak high pressure sets up for the majority of next week for nice weather. As advertised above, models are hinting at a cold front hitting the region next weekend (after I predicated last week we were done for rain this season. Typical). We're still a week away from any potential precipitation, so if anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

• Monday with small but clean SW 
• next weekend with solid NW (but messy?)
• early in the week of the 25th with solid SW. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Scientists at the University of Portsmouth believe a strategy used to protect popular surfing spots could now be more widely adopted to help preserve endangered coastal environments.

A new research paper, published this week in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, says, 'wave reserves', initially aimed at protecting treasured surf spots, are also a way to ensure the conservation of ecologically valuable coastal areas.

The concept of wave reserves has gained popularity over the past few decades. The first wave reserve was established in Bells Beach, Australia in 1973 by surfers keen to defend their prized waves from damaging human activity. But it is especially since the beginning of the 2000s that the surfing community has established dozens of wave reserves around the world.

Waves can be affected by any number of factors such as the dredging of the seabed, building of dykes, changes in sediment regime and ocean acidification. The strategy has been so successful that in some locations there are now several large wave reserves being planned, with support from international NGOs such as Save The Waves.

The research from the University of Portsmouth finds this approach could help low and middle-income countries achieve global sustainability goals. Waves are not just important to surfers, they are also a vital part of the marine ecosystem. Waves play an active role in the gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere and in the movement of sediments. They also provide a favourable living environment for many aquatic species.

During the last 20 years the creation of wave reserves as a measure to preserve sports and recreational activities has aligned with initiatives to conserve the coastal environment. What is emerging is a win-win situation.

Academics believe a desire for corporations to put money behind surfing projects could also be a useful funding stream that benefits the coastal environment. The growing surf market, and its adoption as an Olympic sport could help generate significant revenues for conservation.

Gregoire Touron-Gardic, from the Centre for Blue Governance at the University of Portsmouth, says: "What is new and exciting -- in addition to seeing increasingly large reserves and with legal protection statuses -- is the private sector is now interested in wave reserve projects. We are now seeing sport, cosmetic and drink brands finance international ocean conservation programs. Brands wish to be associated with responsible ecological and social projects, whilst benefiting from the image of surfing."

Touron-Gardic predicts wave reserves will become a popular tool of coastal conservation in countries recognized as surfing destinations, such as the Maldives, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Fiji and Chile. The reserves make it possible to combine preservation of the coastal environment, local economic prosperity and human well-being.

Professor Pierre Failler, Director of the Centre for Blue Governance, University of Portsmouth says, "The potential impact of wave reserves on the future of sustainable ocean management is huge. Wave reserves can become the foundation for an environmental approach to sport tourism. When large enough, wave reserves will allow low- and middle-income countries to increase their relatively weak area-based conservation systems at a lower cost, and therefore progress in achieving their international commitments such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Professor Failler, who is also UNESCO Chair in Ocean Governance, says: "It is achievable and accessible initiatives like these that will help improve the governance of the world's oceans. There are many challenges to overcome during the UN Decade of Ocean Sciences for Sustainable Development and collaboration is key to safeguarding the future of our oceans."

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Dare you to paddle out. And if that peak doesn't scare you, the men in the gray suits should. For more pics of coldwater bombs, check out Jack Bober's work here.

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Invigorating
Also Put A Bid In For Twitter
Today Is My Anniversary (Surfing That Is- 38 Years)

THE Surf Report

 

Spring Break! 

SURF:

For those of you college whippersnappers that went to San Felipe, Daytona Beach, or South Padre Island for Spring Break, shame on you. For those of you that decided to go to North County San Diego instead, you obviously are graduating with honors. Where else would you rather be this week?! 

Great weather, great surf, and, um, do you need anything else? Today the Santa Ana weather kicked in and we had great surf from a dying NW and building SW. 

For Friday, look for more great weather and more great SW swell while the NW tapers off. Waves at best combo spots will be shoulder high. 

On Saturday, the weather returns to normal with low clouds/fog returning in the night/mornings but the NW windswell will pick up again while the SW groundswell lingers for shoulder high waves. Sunday will drop slightly as both swells start to fade. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:25 AM sunrise
• 7:15 PM sunset  

• Water temps are in the low 60's.

• And tides are simple this weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• 0' midday
• back to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

Monday the SW is just a shell of its former self but we do have a small NW windswell filling in. Most spots towards SD will be chest high. Models are then showing a very weak cold front moving through the region late Monday into Tuesday for a chance of drizzle! I know, exciting. 

Winds will pick up Monday afternoon into Tuesday and if the forecast is correct, we'll see head high+ bumpy messed up NW windswell. 

Wednesday should be clean as the NW backs off and new SW fills in for head high surf- could be an Emergency Boardriding System day. The 2nd half of the week will have more good SW for head high sets and not much NW windswell. 

WEATHER:

I would say 'typical spring weather' if it wasn't for this Santa Ana weather. But I guess we'll have to make lemonade out of lemons and just enjoy it then. Once the weather cools down by late Saturday, look for temps in the low 70's by Sunday and night/morning low clouds/fog. Monday is cloudy with temps in the mid-60's and Tuesday may see some sprinkles early in the day and breezy conditions. Weak high pressure looks to set up shop the 2nd half of next week with sunnier skies and cool temps. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Get it this weekend, not so much Monday/Tuesday, and get it again the 2nd half of next week! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Let's not beat around the bush- San Diego's rainy season is over. Even though it runs from October 1st to September 30th, the majority of our rain falls between the 6 month period of November to April (roughly 9.5"). For the remaining 6 months of May to October, we only get a paltry 1" on average. So as you can see, we shouldn't expect a deluge again until next winter. 

Another fun fact about rainfall is that the general rule of thumb when describing a desert is that it receives no more than 10" per year. As you can see, San Diego is just barely above that cut off line of 10.5". And when you have multiple years of drought the past 2 decades- you can pretty much consider us a desert (hello Phoenix)! In particular, here's the last decade of rainfall in San Diego:

• 2021 = 5.24" (yikes)
• 2020 = 13.6" (respectable)
• 2019 = 12.93" (better than average)
• 2018 = 3.34" (yikes x 2)
• 2017 = 12.73" (better than average again)
• 2016 = 8.18" (not good)
• 2015 = 11.91" (slightly better than average)
• 2014 = 5.09" (yikes x 3)
• 2013 = 6.55" (I give up)
• 2012 = 7.9" (I give up again)
• 10 year average you ask? Just 8.75" of rainfall.

As you can see, out of the last 10 years, we've been below average in rainfall 6 of those years. And what the heck- you can throw in this season too since San Diego is only at 6.07" of rain- that makes it 7 out of the last 11 years we've felt like a desert. If we look at the past 2+ decades (2000 to present), 16 of the 22 years have been below average. So we have a bit of a problem here. Conserving water and desalination plants will help, but we need to find a solution to the wildfire threat. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I'll give you one guess on where this is. You're correct! New Zealand! Wow you're good. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Wow Factor
Getting A Signature Shoe
Waves Is My Middle Name