Three's A Crowd!
SURF:
Hasn't this been an odd week.
We saw surf earlier in the week with dreamy conditions that was replaced by the Triple Crown Of Suffering: Strong south winds, cold ocean temps, and red tide! Today is the latter unfortunately as good combo swell was interrupted again from the 3 headed monster. For tomorrow into the weekend, looks like slightly better weather (and less S winds) while the red tide lingers.
As far as the surf goes, we've got more NW windswell filling in on Friday along with a new SW swell. Most spots are chest high+. Saturday drops slightly and on Sunday we get a slight reinforcement from NW windswell for more chest high surf. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:02 AM sunrise
- 7:30 PM sunset
- And I know we always get cold water this time of year from upwelling, but man it seems particularly cold lately. Nor-Cal is 48-50, Central Cal is low 50's, and we're slightly better down here at 57-59. Summer can't come soon enough!
- And here's the tides this weekend:
- 0' at sunrise
- 4' late morning
- down to 1' late afternoon
- and up to 4' again at sunset
FORECAST:
Both hemispheres continue to be active- so get it before it's gone- you know how summer can get around here. To start the week, we have background SW with a touch of new NW windswell for Tuesday; look for more chest high waves.
Charts today show another good storm off Antarctica and we should see shoulder high SW around Thursday the 5th with bigger sets in the OC.
SD also gets into the act next weekend with shoulder high sets from the NW next Saturday. All we need now is the water to warm up, the sun to come out, the winds to calm down, and the red tide to go away. Is that asking too much?...
WEATHER:
The persistent clouds that ring true for May Gray have subsided fortunately but the SW winds continue. Looks like our weather will fluctuate slightly the next few days but no rain or stubborn fog is in the forecast. Look for pleasant weather the next 7 days with temps in the high 60's, mostly sunny skies by mid-day, and typical spring time winds from the SW. Some days may have a little more clouds and some days a little less. And some days a little more wind and some days... you guessed it- a little less. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
- Friday with new fun chest high SW.
- Late next week with more shoulder high SW/NW.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Continuing on last week's theme of wave energy, I came across an article recently from Australia's Macquarie University about climate change making ocean waves more powerful, threatening to erode many coastlines. Here's what they had to say:
Sea level rise isn’t the only way climate change will devastate the coast. Our research found it is also making waves more powerful, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. We plotted the trajectory of these stronger waves and found the coasts of South Australia and Western Australia, Pacific and Caribbean Islands, East Indonesia and Japan, and South Africa are already experiencing more powerful waves because of global warming. This will compound the effects of sea level rise, putting low-lying island nations in the Pacific — such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands — in further danger, and changing how we manage coasts worldwide.
Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the heat gained by the planet. This has a range of impacts, including longer and more frequent marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and providing an energy source for more powerful storms. But our focus was on how warming oceans boost wave power. We looked at wave conditions over the past 35 years, and found global wave power has increased since at least the 1980s, mostly concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere, as more energy is being pumped into the oceans in the form of heat. And a more energetic ocean means larger wave heights and more erosive energy potential for coastlines in some parts of the world than before.
Sea level rise isn’t the only way climate change will devastate the coast. Our research found it is also making waves more powerful, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. We plotted the trajectory of these stronger waves and found the coasts of South Australia and Western Australia, Pacific and Caribbean Islands, East Indonesia and Japan, and South Africa are already experiencing more powerful waves because of global warming. This will compound the effects of sea level rise, putting low-lying island nations in the Pacific — such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands — in further danger, and changing how we manage coasts worldwide.
Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the heat gained by the planet. This has a range of impacts, including longer and more frequent marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and providing an energy source for more powerful storms. But our focus was on how warming oceans boost wave power. We looked at wave conditions over the past 35 years, and found global wave power has increased since at least the 1980s, mostly concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere, as more energy is being pumped into the oceans in the form of heat. And a more energetic ocean means larger wave heights and more erosive energy potential for coastlines in some parts of the world than before.
Ocean waves have shaped Earth’s coastlines for millions of years. So any small, sustained changes in waves can have long-term consequences for coastal ecosystems and the people who rely on them. Mangroves and salt marshes, for example, are particularly vulnerable to increases in wave energy when combined with sea level rise. To escape, mangroves and marshes naturally migrate to higher ground. But when these ecosystems back onto urban areas, they have nowhere to go and die out. This process is known as “coastal squeeze”. These ecosystems often provide a natural buffer to wave attack for low-lying coastal areas. So without these fringing ecosystems, the coastal communities behind them will be exposed to more wave energy and, potentially, higher erosion.
Ocean waves are generated by winds blowing along the ocean surface. And when the ocean absorbs heat, the sea surface warms, encouraging the warm air over the top of it to rise (this is called convection). This helps spin up atmospheric circulation and winds. In other words, we come to a cascade of impacts: warmer sea surface temperatures bring about stronger winds, which alter global ocean wave conditions.
Our research shows, in some parts of the world’s oceans, wave power is increasing because of stronger wind energy and the shift of westerly winds towards the poles. This is most noticeable in the tropical regions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the subtropical regions of the Indian Ocean. But not all changes in wave conditions are driven by ocean warming from human-caused climate change. Some areas of the world’s oceans are still more influenced by natural climate variability — such as El Niño and La Niña — than long-term ocean warming.
In general, it appears changes to wave conditions towards the equator are more driven by ocean warming from human-caused climate change, whereas changes to waves towards the poles remain more impacted by natural climate variability. While the response of coastlines to climate change is a complex interplay of many processes, waves remain the principal driver of change along many of the world’s open, sandy coastlines.
So how might coastlines respond to getting hit by more powerful waves? It generally depends on how much sand there is, and how, exactly, wave power increases. For example, if there’s an increase in wave height, this may cause increased erosion. But if the waves become longer (a lengthening of the wave period), then this may have the opposite effect, by transporting sand from deeper water to help the coast keep pace with sea level rise.
For low-lying nations in areas of warming sea surface temperatures around the equator, higher waves - combined with sea level rise - poses an existential problem. People in these nations may experience both sea level rise and increasing wave power on their coastlines, eroding land further up the beach and damaging property. These areas should be regarded as coastal climate hotspots, where continued adaption or mitigation funding is needed.
If warming continues in line with current trends over the coming century, we can expect to see more significant changes in wave conditions along the world’s coasts than uncovered in our backward-looking research. However, if we can mitigate greenhouse warming, studies indicate we could still keep changes in wave patterns within the bounds of natural climate variability.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Continuing on the theme of wave energy...
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Spry
Will Be Performing At Harrah's Laughlin Next Month
Developing A Process To Turn Red Tide Into Organic Hawaiian Punch
Michael W. Glenn
Spry
Will Be Performing At Harrah's Laughlin Next Month
Developing A Process To Turn Red Tide Into Organic Hawaiian Punch
