Thursday, June 16, 2022

THE Surf Report

 

Goodbye Spring.

SURF:


Sorry for the missing Surf Report last week. I was hiking in the Rockies and there was no surf to report anyway! Spring is on its way out as we only have a few more days 'til summer, the water temps are near 70 degrees, and we have a small chance of hurricane surf in a few days- let's just start summer early. For Friday into the weekend, we have small leftover S swell tomorrow with waist high surf in SD and shoulder high towards the OC. As the S backs off on Saturday, we have a small bump from NW windswell fill in for more waist high+ surf. 


Also on the forecast charts is Hurricane Blas, currently hiding behind the Baja Peninsula. While not the strongest storm- winds only peaked at 85 mph- and forecasted to weaken quickly once it does hit our swell window- the OC may see some chest high surf from it towards Sunday evening. At least it's a good start to the hurricane season. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 5:41 AM sunrise 
    • 7:59 PM sunset
  • Water temps are ALMOST 70 degrees. If that sun comes out, I'm calling for boardies
  • And take heed of the early low tides this weekend:
    • -0.5' at sunrise
    • 4' mid afternoon
    • and about 2.5' in the evening
FORECAST:

To start the week, Hurricane Blas may peak with chest high+ S swell in the OC on Monday (but nothing of significance for SD). 


For mid-week, there's not much on tap but charts show a good storm taking form this weekend which could bring shoulder high sets from the SW towards Friday into next weekend. And further out... models show more activity in the long term from the tropics and southern hemisphere, so let's keep our fingers crossed for early July.

WEATHER:


June Gloom has reigned supreme along the coast but we have seen some sunshine peek through late in the afternoons. For the weekend, a cold front moves by to the N and as it does... more June Gloom for us down here and SW winds. Unfortunately, we won't see much sun this weekend along the coast and temps may struggle to hit 70. But that should start to break down early next week and more sun is in the forecast by Tuesday (and hopefully air temps in the mid-70's). If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Not this weekend- but NEXT weekend with new fun SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


With a couple Eastern Pacific Hurricanes already under our belts, I thought this week we'd dive deeper into what we have (or have not) in store for the upcoming season. First, let's take a look at the first 2 storms:
  • Hurricane Agatha as you may remember, made landfall along the southern Mexico coast at the end of May. The hurricane dumped heavy rain and triggered mudslides as it moved inland, leaving a death toll in its wake. At least 11 people have been killed as result of Agatha's passing, with 20 more missing. Agatha became the strongest storm to make landfall in Mexico this early in the season, crashing ashore just west of the town of Puerto Angel with maximum sustained winds of around 105 mph. 
  • Next up is Hurricane Blas, currently spinning S of the Baja Peninsula with winds of 85 mph. Moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue over Blas through the next 36 hours. Blas has another 18 hours or so over warm water before it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm (80 degrees F). Little change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning, while the cyclone remains over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening  should begin in about 24 hours, and is anticipated to continue during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low around day 3. 

Now that we have 2 storms on the books, what's it going to take to make a 3rd? There's various factors:
  • Wind speed is important of course. If the wind is only blowing 10 mph, don't expect surf. It's howling at 100 mph, you betcha. 
  • Wind duration. The longer the wind blows, the more energy (surf size) builds. 
  • Size of the storm. If you have 75 mph winds blowing in a bathtub for 3 days, you won't see surf (but you will see water all over your bathroom floor). If you have 75 mph winds blowing over 3 days in a space the size of Florida- head to the Outer Banks with a step up.
  • And 5 additional factors when it comes to successful hurricane surf:
    • Wind speed: A storm with sustained winds over 74 mph is considered a hurricane (and a category 1 at that on the Saffir Simpson scale). And a category 2 hurricane?...
    • Category 2:
      • Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894.
    • Category 3:
      • Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017.
    • Category 4:
      • Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes.
    • Category 5:
      • Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes.
  • Water temperatures. A minimum of 80 degrees. This is a big factor as to why Southern California has only seen 1 or 2 hurricane come ashore (and even that's up for debate since it was back in 1858 and 1939). So-Cal really only sees water temps peak in the mid-70's during summer.
  • Storm movement. If a storm forms off Mainland Mexico and heads straight to Hawaii, the energy/swells aren't pointed at us (i.e. Southern California) and we won't see much. BUT.. if it heads our way- go straight to the Wedge and don't ask questions.
  • Swell window. Baja California unfortunately is a pretty darn effective swell blocker. Hurricanes need to move away from Baja (and Punta Eugenia half way up the peninsula if we're getting technical) so the swells can take aim at Southern California.
  • And finally, swell angle. Hurricane swells coming from a southerly angle will roll right past Scripps Pier/La Jolla Cove which faces NW. Newport Point on the other hand faces almost due S; along with the submarine canyon offshore, it's a hurricane swell magnet. 

So with that being said, let's review Hurricane Agatha from last month and Hurricane Marie from 2014 in regards to swell generation:
  • Hurricane Agatha headed straight into Mainland Mexico and never got out of the shadow of Baja California (or Mainland Mexico for that matter). Pretty straightforward- no surf for us.
  • Hurricane Marie on the flip side...
    • Had sustained winds of 160 mph at it's peak (category 5)
    • Was a large sized storm. At its peak, the hurricane's gale-force winds spanned an area 575 miles (basically San Francisco to the Mexican border).
    • Warmer than average water temps off Baja and Southern California (an El Nino year)
    • The storm lasted 12 days
    • Headed towards Southern California and in our swell window
    • Storm finally died due W of San Diego. So initially as it moved N to S, southerly facing Orange County saw big surf. And as it died due W of San Diego? Swami's even got in on the action. 
So when the next tropical storm forms off of Mexico, make sure to keep the above points in mind and pray for surf! And in case you're wondering, here's the list of names for Eastern Pacific Hurricanes this summer (Did your name make the list)?:
  • Agatha
  • Blas
  • Celia
  • Darby
  • Estelle
  • Frank
  • Georgette
  • Howard
  • Ivette
  • Javier
  • Kay
  • Lester
  • Madeline
  • Newton
  • Orlene
  • Paine
  • Roslyn
  • Seymour
  • Tina
  • Virgil
  • Winifred
  • Xavier
  • Yolanda
  • Zeke
PIC OF THE WEEK:


Have you seen Disney's new 'land'? In between Tomorrowland and Fantasyland, they built 'Dreamland'. You've got the big right off the point, you've got that little funky wave in the beach break at the bottom of the photo, and when the swell gets bigger, you can surf the left off that headland. It doesn't open until next week but I'm already at the gates with my fullsuit on, totally geeking out. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Got It ALL Figured Out
Was The Inspiration For Richie Rich
Developed The World's First Solar Heated Wetsuit
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