I've run out of superlatives.
SURF:
Let's just cut to the chase: That was some bombing surf last Friday. Want to know the scary thing? That swell actually peaked in the middle of the night on Thursday when we were asleep!
Could you imagine adding a few more feet to that swell? No thank you. Not that I was afraid or anything. I would've had paddled out. Guess we'll have to wait until next time... which happens to be tomorrow. Gulp. Buoys in Nor Cal today were seeing 25 second readings from a looooong period large WNW swell and most spots in Central Cal this evening are seeing 22 second readings.
That swell will start to fill in overnight here in So Cal with overhead sets by dawn. As the day progresses, the long period swell will filter in more to SD with 12-15' surf at best spots while N County SD looks to have 10' sets and 8' sets at best OC spots. That will last into Saturday. Sunday drops to more 'manageable' overhead surf. But beware! Rain should return (heavy at times) by Saturday- along with messy conditions- that could last into Sunday morning. Tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:51 AM sunrise
- 5:05 PM sunset
- Water temps are still high 50's and suspect quality returns Sunday due to the new rain runoff.
- And tides are WAAAY more mellow this weekend:
- about 3' at sunrise
- 2' mid-morning
- back up to 3' mid afternoon
- and back to down to 2' by sunset
FORECAST:
And on to the next storm. The surf starts to pick up again on Monday as low pressure makes it way into Southern California. By Tuesday- it's back to double overhead WNW jumbled surf as the cold front exits the region. Wednesday should be cleaner (the weather that is- not the water quality) and the surf should back down to the overhead range. Long range charts show high pressure FINALLY taking control for good weather, but that also means our swell generators will get pushed up into the Aleutians.
By next weekend, models show a new NW groundswell hitting SD with head high surf and clean conditions. Looks like our rain and relentless big swells may be done for the time being.
WEATHER:
Today was quite pleasant if I don't say so myself. Sunny skies, temps in the high 60's, and no real wind to mess up the surf. Friday looks to be about the same before storm #38 this winter (or at least it seems like that) hits our region. Sunday is a transition day, then more rain for Monday/Tuesday. Models though show us drying out for the foreseeable future by late in the week. So maybe our rain is over? Here's a quick summary of the week ahead:
- Friday nice
- Rain by Saturday afternoon- and breezy
- Transition day Sunday
- More rain Monday! (and breezy)
- Transition day Tuesday
- Nice from Wednesday until... forever?
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Friday before the rain returns this weekend. Definitely an Emergency Boardriding System activation day. Or wait until late next week when all storms shift to the N and we're left with smaller, cleaner surf by Thursday into next weekend.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Either we've been in a wave/weather drought for so long that I don't remember what it's like to see downpours & double overhead waves, or we really are experiencing a special time as surfers right now.
As far as the rain goes, how are we doing in regards to seasonal averages and our we out of our drought yet? Let's take a look at our current rain totals first:
As far as the rain goes, how are we doing in regards to seasonal averages and our we out of our drought yet? Let's take a look at our current rain totals first:
- Los Angeles: 8.28" (178% of normal). Last year at this time? 8.70"!
- Newport Beach: 6.33" (145% of normal). Last year at this time? 5.58"
- Oceanside: 5.95" (135% of normal). Last year at this time? 5.27"
- San Diego: 4.57" (123% of normal). Last year at this time? 3.59"
As a rule of thumb, we need around 10" here in Southern California by season's end (September 30th). Sounds good, right? About 8 1/2 months to get another 2-6" or so for most locations? Well... the bulk of our rain falls between December and March, so we've got roughly 10 more weeks. On the 'glass is half full' outlook, we're right on track. On the 'glass is half empty' outlook, we are in a La Nina pattern and this could shut off any time- like it did last year.
But the real story is, how are those reservoirs looking? Luckily, some of our biggest reservoirs are in Northern California which has been hit hardest from these storms. Here's some data from the San Francisco Chronicle:
Statewide reservoir storage, which has declined significantly over the past three years thanks to drought and diminished snowpack, is now up to 84% of average as of midnight on Jan. 10, according to the state Department of Water Resources. Just five days ago, average storage levels were at only 78%, and one month ago, were 68%.
While nearly all of the state’s largest reservoirs remain below their historical average for this time of year, the series of storms continue to push water levels up, even compared with just last week. Lake Shasta, which is the state’s largest reservoir by volume, rose from 35% to 42% of its total 4.5 million-acre-foot capacity over the last five days — both up from 31% a month ago. The additions bring the reservoir to 70% of its historic average for this time of year.
Lake Oroville similarly jumped up from 41% five days ago to 47% as of Jan. 10, bringing it to 88% of its historic average. And one major reservoir — Don Pedro, located in the Sierra Nevada foothills east of Modesto — hit 100% of its historic average water storage this week, which is 69% of its total capacity of 2 million acre-feet. Five days ago, it was at 92% of its average. While some smaller reservoirs have even surpassed their historic average after the rains this month, all are still below their total capacity.
While the precipitation is a positive, water experts stress that even a few weeks of consecutive storms aren’t enough to reverse several years of drought. While the rains have improved drought conditions across the state, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor update last Thursday, the entire state remains at least abnormally dry, with much of it falling into the severe or extreme drought categories — the third and fourth worst categories out of five.
Jeanine Jones, drought manager for the California Department of Water Resources, told The Chronicle last week that only sustained precipitation through the season would be able to make a meaningful improvement in the state’s water supply. “It's great that we're having some storms and getting (precipitation), but we need that to continue,” she said.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Just a reminder that the upcoming North County Board Meeting is NEXT Friday the 20th. And until the waves & weather clean up, we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard. Note the new time too: 8-9 AM for all of you sleepyheads. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts. Come on down to support your community and talk a little surf while you're at it. Thanks for the support and we'll see you on the 20th!
During all the chaos up and down the California coast the past week, there were some gems to be had if you looked hard enough. Like this good left reefbreak, right in the middle of about 1 million surfers. Seriously. Happy hunting!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Effulgent
About 68% Sure I Don't Have Any Classified Docs
Sponsored By Olive Garden Because My Arms Felt Like Wet Noodles This Week
Michael W. Glenn
Effulgent
About 68% Sure I Don't Have Any Classified Docs
Sponsored By Olive Garden Because My Arms Felt Like Wet Noodles This Week
