Is It Over Yet?
SURF:
Sorry, I've been hiding under my bed the past few weeks. The big storms and even bigger surf had me a bit spooked (along with a few sewage spills up and down the coast). Looks like we're back to a normal San Diego winter around here- smaller surf and sunnier skies.
For tomorrow and the weekend, we have a weak cold front moving by to our N tonight which will send a small but fun NW wind/groundswell our way for Friday. Look for chest high surf in N County SD and shoulder high surf in southern SD. On Saturday, surf drops even further to the waist high+ range (had to believe, I know) but the weather will be nice with a slight Santa Ana condition. For Sunday, we get another NW wind/groundswell for chest high surf (bigger in SD) and nice weather again. Tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:48 AM sunrise (6:30 AM paddle out?)
- 5:13 PM sunset (5:30 PM paddle in)?
- Water temps are still high 50's and suspect quality due to the sewage spills. Hopefully everything is cleaner by the weekend.
- And tides are REALLY extreme this weekend. A 9' swing!:
- about 6' at sunrise
- almost 7' around 8:30 AM
- drops like a rock to almost -2' at 3:30 PM
- and back to 0' at sunset
FORECAST:
The building NW on Sunday peaks Monday for more chest high surf in N County SD and shoulder high surf in southern SD. We also have more mild Santa Ana conditions. High pressure is still in charge but models show a solid storm forming above Hawaii this weekend then getting pushed in British Columbia.
Luckily for us, that will result in long period NW groundswell filling in for head high surf in N County SD and overhead+ sets in southern SD by Wednesday. Models also show a slightly stronger Santa Ana condition so it could be pretty darn good around here mid-week (i.e. Emergency Boardriding System activation).
The southern hemisphere is also trying to get its act together with a small SW headed our way mid-week. The OC will most likely see waist high+ surf from it while the larger NW will overrun it in SD.
Thursday drops but is still fun for chest high sets, then we may see a smaller but still good shoulder high NW groundswell by late Saturday. In summary- nothing like it was the past few weeks- but at least it's cleaner and fun.
WEATHER:
A weak cold front is passing by to the N tonight with a last shot of showers for us- and then high pressure takes control for the foreseeable future. According to the models, looks like the rain will be done through the end of January. Look for on again, off again Santa Ana conditions for next week and warming temperatures. Here's a quick summary of the week ahead:
- Clearing cool skies on Friday and temps near the high 50's
- Saturday sunny and nice and low 60's with a slight Santa Ana condition
- More of the same on Sunday
- More of the same on Monday
- More of the same on Tuesday but maybe stronger Santa Anas
- Ditto for Wednesday
- Late in the week- more sunny skies and temps in the mid-60's!
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
I'm thinking Tuesday/Wednesday with mild Santa Ana conditions, a good NW groundswell, and a smaller SW for the heck of it. EBS will be on standby...
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Now that we have a break in the action, let's take a look at our rain totals and what to expect long term. For our totals, we have:
- Los Angeles: 10.73" (203% of normal). Last year at this time? 8.79". And we're aiming for 12.23" by the end of September.
- Newport Beach: 8.25" (167% of normal). Last year at this time? 5.64". And we're aiming for 11.18" by the end of September.
- Oceanside: 9.49" (192% of normal). Last year at this time? 5.47". And we're aiming for 11.86" by the end of September.
- San Diego: 7.37" (176% of normal). Last year at this time? 3.75". And we're aiming for 9.79" by the end of September.
The back to back storms last weekend gave us roughly 4" of much needed rain along the coast and about 24" of snow in the San Bernardino mountains. That was a lifesaver. Models show us staying high and dry until the end of the month- then with some hope- showers may return in early February.
And in the long long long term, will we see El Nino return next winter? As you know, we've had 3 straight years of La Nina which NORMALLY result in below average rainfall. So El Nino of course may flip that with above average rainfall and the storm track aimed more towards Southern California (as well as warm summer waters and an increase in hurricane activity off Baja). Here's the latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
The sea surface in the tropical Pacific has been cooler than the long-term average (1991–2020, currently) since mid-2020, and it remains so (thanks for nuthin' La Nina). However, we did see some weakening of this pattern over the past few weeks.
What we did not see weaken though was the La Niña-like atmospheric pattern over the tropical Pacific. The atmosphere typically responds to La Niña’s cooler-than-average sea surface with a stronger-than-average Walker circulation: more rain and clouds over Indonesia than average, less over the central tropical Pacific, and stronger winds, both the near-surface, east-to-west winds, and the upper-level, west-to-east winds. In December, all these patterns were still clearly present.
We also regularly take the temperature of the subsurface tropical Pacific, as the water at depth can supply the surface. There’s been a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface since late summer, but this weakened a lot over November–December. However, the subsurface in the eastern Pacific is still relatively cool. So La Niña is still in force, then. What’s to come, you ask?
And in the long long long term, will we see El Nino return next winter? As you know, we've had 3 straight years of La Nina which NORMALLY result in below average rainfall. So El Nino of course may flip that with above average rainfall and the storm track aimed more towards Southern California (as well as warm summer waters and an increase in hurricane activity off Baja). Here's the latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
The sea surface in the tropical Pacific has been cooler than the long-term average (1991–2020, currently) since mid-2020, and it remains so (thanks for nuthin' La Nina). However, we did see some weakening of this pattern over the past few weeks.
What we did not see weaken though was the La Niña-like atmospheric pattern over the tropical Pacific. The atmosphere typically responds to La Niña’s cooler-than-average sea surface with a stronger-than-average Walker circulation: more rain and clouds over Indonesia than average, less over the central tropical Pacific, and stronger winds, both the near-surface, east-to-west winds, and the upper-level, west-to-east winds. In December, all these patterns were still clearly present.
We also regularly take the temperature of the subsurface tropical Pacific, as the water at depth can supply the surface. There’s been a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface since late summer, but this weakened a lot over November–December. However, the subsurface in the eastern Pacific is still relatively cool. So La Niña is still in force, then. What’s to come, you ask?
Let’s get right to the punchline: there’s an 82% chance that La Niña will have ended and neutral conditions will reign by springtime (March–May). Forecasting the exact season (any three-month average is a ‘season’ in the ENSO-monitoring world) that La Niña will end (January–March? February–April?) is always challenging, since the range of potential outcomes shown in the forecast models is still substantial even just a couple months ahead. Our dynamical computer models, computer programs that use complex mathematical equations to predict how current conditions will evolve in the future, are leaning toward an earlier transition. However, the statistical models, which make predictions based on how similar conditions from past years evolved, are thinking neutral conditions will arrive a little later. The forecast team is favoring the statistical models’ outlook, in part due to that strong La Niña-like atmospheric circulation mentioned above.
So is El Niño in store for next fall/winter??? We need to see more signs of El Niño before we would start expecting that. It’s still more than 6 months away, and the probabilities for neutral+La Niña are still pretty close to even with El Niño. Also, since ENSO is a seasonal pattern, we need to be able to expect that El Niño’s characteristic warmer-than-average tropical Pacific would be present for more than one or two months in a row. We don’t have strong physical signs right now, either, like a large amount of warmer-than-average water looming under the surface, and the Walker circulation is still amped up. Stay tuned, for sure—but for the moment, we are not issuing an El Niño Watch.
One more thing to mention- California got deluged with rain and snow tis month with a series of atmospheric rivers. You may be saying “hey wait, I thought La Niña meant California and the southwest would be dry this winter!” It’s true, typical La Niña impacts include a drier-than-average southwestern U.S. and more rain and snow than average in the Pacific northwest. But ENSO only makes certain seasonal impacts more or less likely—it’s not a guarantee of a drier/colder/warmer/wetter winter. If it were a guarantee, it would make our jobs a lot easier! In fact, we have a fairly recent example of another winter that deviated from expected La Niña impacts, 2016–17.
Also, it’s currently impossible to predict short-term weather patterns months in advance. Right now, we can only say that La Niña winters tend to be drier across the southern U.S. Maybe in time we’ll have the capability to predict this type of subseasonal variability months in advance. You can bet there will be a lot of research into understanding the weather and climate drivers behind this extreme rain/snow pattern and if/how climate change factors in.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Just a reminder that the upcoming North County Board Meeting is TOMORROW, Friday the 20th. And we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard. Note the new time too: 8-9 AM for all of you sleepyheads. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts. Come on down to support your community and talk a little surf while you're at it. Thanks for the support and we'll see you tomorrow morning!
That left off the point looks FIRING. But... those weird clouds floating above the lineup gives it a creepy vibe. Like Kong is lurking in the forest. Ha! He's not real, right?... You paddle out first. I insist.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
High-caliber
Golden Globe Nominee
Snapped My 9'0" Gun At Todos. But On A Positive Note- I Have Two 4'6" Grovellers Now!
