THE Surf Report

 

Winsprummall

SURF:

Not sure if you know this or not, but science has proven that there are actually 5 seasons; winter, spring, summer, fall, and all of them combined into one called 'winsprummall'. We are actually in the middle of the 5th season with spring 'May Gray' today, summer like weather this weekend, a winter storm next week, and I'm pretty sure we'll see the trees changing colors again by next weekend. But let's get to the good stuff: The Emergency Boardriding System (EBS patent pending). I'll be turning it on this weekend due to the combination of fun surf and potential afternoon sunshine. 

We've got a fun SW swell filling in today that will peak Saturday with shoulder high sets in northern SD and head high sets in the OC. We should also see more sunshine in the afternoons. By Sunday, the SW starts to wind down and we see a bit more stubborn cloudiness at the beaches due to the impending cold front next week.  And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:04 AM sunrise
• 7:29 PM sunset

• Water temps are low 60's in SD and high 50's in the OC. We'll see if those drop though after the cold front next week. 

• And tides are pretty simple this weekend:
• almost 4' at sunrise
• almost 0' mid-day
• and back to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

Monday has new head high NW filling in from the approaching storm but conditions should still be rideable. By Tuesday, it may be messy around here with dropping NW in the chest high range and increasing SW wind. Wednesday/Thursday looks to be smaller and still a bit of bump with showers. 

Now if the weather will cooperate, I may be able to switch on the ol' EBS the 2nd half of the week as models show a good storm forming off Antarctica today which could send overhead SW towards Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. Behind that, the Aleutians look to back off slightly, but we could see more waist high+ towards next Sunday. 

And after that, we may see more shoulder high S swell from Antarctica around the 12th. It is southern hemisphere season you know (except for that whole late season Aleutian storm next week). 

WEATHER:

I'm pretty much going to keep my pie hole shut when it comes to declaring winter is over. As mentioned above, our weather is going to give us whiplash the next few days with overcast conditions this week giving way to warmer temps this weekend (but the clouds may be stubborn to burn off at the coast), then showers next week and a dusting of snow above 7000'. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday: Chance of sun in the afternoon. Temps 67/57
• Saturday: Chance of sun in the afternoon. Temps 72/57.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny. Temps 69/55
• Monday/Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Temps 61/51
• Wednesday/Thursday: Chance of showers. Temps 61/51
• Next weekend: Cool and sunny.

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Friday/Saturday this week with fun SSW. Or next Friday/Saturday with slightly bigger SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you've probably felt by now, the waters along the immediate California coast are colder than normal and the building warm waters of El Nino can't come soon enough. But the rest of the oceans worldwide are warming unusually fast for April- with or without California or El Nino's help. Here's the latest from Newsweek:

Ocean temperatures have soared recently, hitting their highest point for March and April in over 40 years. Data from the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine has shown that since mid-March 2023, the average sea surface temperature worldwide—between the latitudes of 60 degrees North and 60 degrees South—has been higher than it has ever been since accurate satellite temperature records began in 1981.

"Ocean temperatures have been at all-time record warm levels for 42 straight days," Colin McCarthy, an extreme weather expert and content creator, said in a tweet on Tuesday, garnering over 330,000 views. "This is [completely] unprecedented in the modern history of Earth."

If these trends continue, increased ocean temperatures may have major impacts on many marine species at all levels of the food chain. "This will impact many life forms and especially primary producers which live [on] the surface as they are dependent on sunlight for fixing CO2," Thomas Mock, a marine microbiologist at the University of East Anglia in the U.K., told Newsweek.

"Primary producers in the oceans are mainly algae from microscopic size to the size of trees. To efficiently fix atmospheric CO2, they require nutrients. However, if the ocean warms up, vertical mixing is reduced because a warm layer basically like a lid sits on top of the ocean. We call this ocean stratification. This limits the flow of nutrients to where primary producers are (surface layers). Hence, productivity is reduced potentially leading to a positive feedback loop as less CO2 is being fixed (loop: anthropogenic CO2 leads to heat, and this leads to more CO2 remaining in the atmosphere because of reduced uptake by oceanic primary producers)."

Increased ocean temperatures can also lead to coral bleaching, which is when heat-stressed corals expel the algae that live within them and photosynthesize the sunlight for them, turning the corals white.

"Heat also induces stress in marine organisms that can't regulate their body temperature," Mock said. "These marine heatwaves become more common. Thus, only those species will survive who can either cope with heat or who evolve quickly enough (e.g., microbes) to be able to cope (e.g., heat is considered to impose a hard selection). Another consequence of increasing temperatures is poleward (Arctic and Antarctic) migration of marine organisms out of heat zones (equator, subtropics) if they can. There is evidence for this already and for many organism groups in the ocean and on land."

Hotter oceans provide energy for storms to brew, creating more powerful hurricanes. They contribute to the melting of sea ice and glaciers, increasing sea levels across the world and destroying the habitats of thousands of species that rely on the ice, including the polar bear.

Ocean temperatures have been increasing since the 1880s, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, having increased by an average of 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1901. This increase has been accelerating in recent decades, according to a paper in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science from 2021.

The precise data showing changes from year to year are based on measurements from satellites—NOAA satellites in this case—but also verified with measurements from ships and buoys. "The ocean has been steadily warming as a result of climate change. So in a fairly steady fashion decade by decade, the ocean has been getting warmer," Brad de Young, a professor of oceanography at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, told Newsweek.

This exceptionally high year of ocean temperatures may be because of a combination of factors, including the fact that we are coming out of a La Niña period that results in cooler waters, and entering an El Nino, which can lead to increased temperatures.

"Month by month and year by year there are processes that move heat around in the Earth system that lead to relative cooling," deYoung said. "The huge swings associated with La Niña and El Nino are one of those. We have been in a La Niña pattern for the past few years but appear to be sliding into an El Nino phase. This means that there is a huge shift in heat in the tropical Pacific with warmer water beginning to appear in the eastern Pacific. So this dramatic surface warming of the ocean could be related to this shifting cycle of Pacific heating. While [the rise in temperatures is] striking, it is not unexpected."

Scientists agree that while there are natural fluctuations in ocean temperatures, the general long-term trend is that these temperatures are, on average, increasing. "As we keep gradually turning up the temperature of the planet we can expect to see events such as these in a given year or season," deYoung said. "While there is relatively steady warming there are still many things that cause the temperature to go up or down from year to year. Another aspect of this story is that the ocean plays a big part in all this as it has been absorbing most of the excess heat held by the earth system as a result of anthropogenic warming."

Oceans are thought to absorb more than 90 percent of the heat that is trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gas emissions, according to NASA.

A major driver of the increased ocean temperatures is human-driven changes to the climate. Scientists have noted that despite the La Niña conditions, the oceans have been warmer than expected in recent years. One 2019 study in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science showed that marine heatwaves have increased in frequency with climate change, with several regions of the ocean currently undergoing heatwaves.

"Another note here is that the data here are from 60 N to 60 S because of problems getting data closer to the poles. This does cover most of the ocean and so is a reliable index of what is going on in the oceans. Indeed over time it probably underestimated the warming as the poles are warming faster than elsewhere. But on short time scales, a few months these data could somewhat over or underestimate the anomaly," deYoung said.

"Of course, this observation has not been fully digested as it is so 'fresh' and it is still developing. So it could change somewhat over the coming months," he said.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Hi everyone. We are almost sold out for the 8th annual-ish North County Board Meeting charity golf tournament! If you're thinking of playing, donating a prize, or sponsoring a hole, please do so now before it's too late. Sponsored by our friends at Venture LLP, we're benefiting the Carlsbad Educational Foundation this year. It's first come first serve, so please reach out ASAP to Rich Clark at rich@logicopy.com or Michael Glenn at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot, hole sponsorship, or prize donation. Thanks for the support and we'll see you at Goat Hill on May 12th!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just some obscure out of the way uncrowded spot in California. Or maybe Portugal. Pretty sure it's New Zealand?

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

Wonderful

Still Don't Know Why I Agreed To Go On Maury Povich

Still Haven't Cashed My 3rd Place 1990 Body Glove Surfbout Check

THE Surf Report

 

Calm Before The (El Nino) Storm

SURF:

It seems like we're back on track around here. Red tide looks like it's subsiding here in SD, fun combo surf the past few days, sun is out, and water temps have rebounded to 60. Strike up the band! Nothing out of the ordinary in the near term so rest up before El Nino hits this summer. For Friday, we have leftover SW/NW for waist high+ surf and great weather. Saturday drops to the waist high set range and then a weak front moves by to the N on Sunday and we have slight uptick in NW late Sunday for waist high+ waves and more low clouds. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:10 AM sunrise
• 7:24 PM sunset

• Water temps have finally hit 60 again. Scripps in fact was 62 today- a far cry from 52 earlier this month.

• And here are the tides this weekend:
  • about -0.5' at sunrise
  • just over 3' at lunch
  • down to 2' late afternoon
  • and back to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

The NW windswell from late Sunday continues to build Monday for chest high sets. 

That peaks Tuesday with shoulder high sets along with new waist high SW swell (and chest high in the OC). These upcoming combo swells will be similar to the swells we just had on Wednesday of this week.

Behind that, look for more chest high SW swells next weekend. Nothing big on the horizon but it will be rideable. 

WEATHER:

We've got great to mediocre weather on tap for the upcoming week. Great weather Friday/Saturday as high pressure is in control and temps at the beaches are in the mid-70's. Then the low clouds move back Sunday/Monday for mediocre 'Graypril'. Tuesday is a transition day, then the 2nd half of next week looks to be nice again. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday: Sunny and warm. Temps 75/55
• Saturday: Sunny. Temps 73/55
• Sunday/Monday: Cloudy and cool. 63/55
• Tuesday: Partly sunny. 67/55
• 2nd half of next week: Sunny 70/55

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Tuesday with combo swell but overcast conditions. Or next weekend with better weather and a fun SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY! (Pop quiz on Monday):

• 1988:
  • Heavy rain began on 4/19 and ended on 4/23. 4.15 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Mt. Wilson. Flooding, mud slides and numerous traffic accidents occurred across the region. 26 were injured in a major collision. Street flooding occurred in southern San Diego County along with downed trees, power outages, and overflowed sewer lines. Three straight Dodgers baseball games were rained out. Only 12 rainouts had occurred in the previous 26 years.
• 1983:
  • Heavy rain that started on 4/17 and ended on this day caused street flooding and mud slides. The Padres’ home game against the Atlanta Braves was rained out at (then) Jack Murphy Stadium. This would be the last rainout for over 15 years, the next one occurring on 5/12/1998. The Angels’ home game at Anaheim Stadium against the Oakland Athletics was also rained out.
• 1981:
  • A thunderstorm in Orange County produced a lightning strike that injured three on the Cypress College Campus.
• 1962:
  • Strong winds whipped through the region toppling trees, snapping power lines, dislodging roofs, breaking plate glass windows, and downing store signs. In the deserts traffic was restricted by blowing dust and sand, with some vehicles suffering paint damage due to the blowing sand

BEST OF THE BLOG:

We are filling up fast for the 8th annual-ish North County Board Meeting charity golf tournament; thank you to everyone that has signed up so far. We are close to selling out, so if you're thinking of playing, donating a prize, or sponsoring a hole, please do so now before it's too late! Sponsored by our friends at Venture LLP, we're benefiting the Carlsbad Educational Foundation this year. It's first come first serve, so please reach out ASAP to Rich Clark at rich@logicopy.com or Michael Glenn at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot, hole sponsorship, or prize donation. Thanks for the support and we'll see you at Goat Hill on May 12th!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Adios Winter. We hardly knew ye'. Looking forward though to seeing you and El Nino return in the near future. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Resilient
Blowin' Up Like Space X
Training With Mickey Goldmill To Surf In The '24 Olympics

THE Surf Report

Low, High, Neap, King, and Red

SURF:

Which of those tides doesn't belong? If you said red, congratulations! No prize unfortunately, but when we do get some surf around here, I owe you a wave. I think we hit rock bottom this past week- we can only go up from here. 

Red tide, freezing water, south winds, drizzle, and small surf is as bad as it gets. For the weekend, the weather should clean up slightly but the water will still be cold and the red tide will most likely linger. Friday has leftover waist high+ NW windswell while Saturday/Sunday will be waist high from a SW/NW combo. El Nino can't get here soon enough. Jinx! And for all the wave pool naysayers out there- Palm Springs will be 90 this weekend. Just saying. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:19 AM sunrise
• 7:19 PM sunset
• A full 13 hours of sun!

• Water temps have rebounded slightly but are still 57 degrees- a few degrees colder than normal this time of year- while a building El Nino in most of the Pacific is resulting in WARMER than average temps. Just not here. 

• And here are the tides this weekend:
• almost 5' at sunrise
• -0.7' just after mid-day
• and about 4.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Looks like some surf is finally headed our way- along with a weak cold front moving by to the N. What does that mean for us? 

Look for a small but fun SW to fill in Monday for chest high surf towards the OC while more chest high NW windswell builds for late Tuesday in SD and lasts into Friday. Conditions may be iffy on Tuesday/Wednesday (no rain at this point) but more Graypril (or May Gray or June Gloom or whatever you call overcast/S winds this time of year). 

Next small NW should arrive around the 24th in SD and the OC gets into the act around the 27th with a shoulder high SW? It all sounds good in theory IF... we can get rid of these overcast conditions, the water warms up, and the red tide dissipates...

WEATHER:

The weak little cold front last night dropped almost 1/4" of rain. Good enough to keep my sprinklers off for another week. Today's cold spell should exit the region tomorrow and we'll have mostly sunny skies for the weekend and mild temps. For next week, the small cold front mentioned above should pass by to the N for more clouds mid-week, then hopefully nice weather again next weekend. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday: Partly cloudy and 60/50
• Saturday through Monday: Mostly sunny and 65/55
• Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy and 60/50
• Thursday through the weekend: Mostly sunny and 65/55

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Monday to Wednesday with building SW/NW and suspect conditions Tuesday/Wednesday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The past few weeks we've been discussing the potential of an El Nino fall/winter. With the rapid warming recently in the equatorial Pacific, the National Weather Service issued an El Niño watch this week as scientists observed early signs of the climate pattern known to boost global temperatures, predicting it is more likely than not to arrive... by summer. Here's the Washington Post to discuss:

El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have influences on weather patterns around the globe. Already there are signs of that regime developing: Scientists said waters have warmed quickly off South America’s western coast, something that may “foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin,” the Weather Service said. Their confidence in a developing El Niño is increasing despite well-known limits to climate forecast accuracy at this time of year.
El Niño could arrive as early as next month, they said, with an estimated 62 percent chance it develops some time between May and July.

And conditions lead them to predict 40 percent chances that waters warm so significantly, an El Niño considered to be “strong” will develop by late in the year. The last time that happened, in 2016, global temperatures surged to record highs and helped trigger rainforest loss, coral bleaching, polar ice melt and wildfires.

El Niño is known for sending warmth and precipitation across the southern United States, triggering drought in parts of Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, and limiting development of Atlantic hurricanes. It also tends to accelerate long-term global warming trends. The warm Pacific waters tend to produce more cloud cover, which encourages more of the sun’s warmth to be trapped in the atmosphere. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have said that for every degree Celsius that El Niño warms surface waters in the central equatorial Pacific, the global average surface temperature rises by 0.07 degrees Celsius (0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) two to three months later.

The early signs of El Niño, in addition to warmer-than-expected global temperatures so far this year, have prompted some scientists to nudge upward their predictions of where 2023 could rank among Earth’s hottest years on record. In a monthly global temperature analysis posted Wednesday, Robert Rohde, lead scientist for Berkeley Earth, calculated “a substantial” 38 percent chance 2023 could set a record for global warmth.

The Weather Service’s climate forecast includes a 10 percent chance that El Niño fails to materialize by the end of the year, and that the planet remains under what are called “neutral” conditions, with neither El Niño nor La Niña. Without the influence of either regime, broader seasonal weather patterns can be especially difficult to predict.

La Niña, the cooler foil to El Niño, had been the dominant global climate pattern for the past three years, but it ended in February. Marked by cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, it contributed to drought in the Southwest United States and to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

What does this all mean? My wish list would be 25' Wedge this summer and 25' La Jolla Cove this winter; to watch from the safety of the beach of course. 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Just a reminder that the North County Board Meeting will be meeting TOMORROW (Friday the 14th) if you're looking for a little surf action but don't feel like putting on a 5/4 or battling the red tide. The weather & waves will be suspect (again) so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament. If you have any questions, check out the NCBM website or email me at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Surf as far as the eye can see. In this crowded day and age, it's nice to see plenty of waves for everyone. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
All The Rage
Seized The Day
Starting A Boy Band With Kelly, Cheyne, & Occy Called New Kids On the Tail Block

The Surf Report

 

The Coldest Winter I Ever Spent Was A Spring in San Diego

SURF:

Just when I thought I had it ALL figured out. Rain is gone, sun is out, winds are manageable, and El Nino was coming to warm up our water temps. Not so fast. Our water is FRIGID (more on that below) and models are predicting rain AGAIN (more on that below). For our upcoming weekend though, Friday starts off tiny and a return of low clouds from a weak cold front passing by to the N. That same front will kick up waist high NW windswell for Saturday and the sun will return. We also have small and slowly building SW on Sunday for waist high waves towards the OC. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:27 AM sunrise
• 7:14 PM sunset

• Water temps plummeted to the low 50's this week- but are slowly rebounding to the mid-50's with the nice weather. 

• And nothing too exciting with the tides this weekend:
• about 0' at sunrise
• 3.5' at lunch
• down to 1.5' late afternoon
• and back to 2.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Got a mixed bag for the foreseeable future. 

First up is a building combo of SW/NW swells on Monday for chest high sets. Both those swells continue to build mid-week with the peak of the NW occurring Thursday from... a cold front coming through? Hope not. If that's the case, look for showers and bumpy conditions the 2nd half of the work week- along with a sizeable WNW wind/groundswell like we just had a few days ago. 

Behind that, models show another storm off Antarctica taking shape this weekend which would send shoulder high SSW swell to us around the 18th. Now we just need the rain to stop and the water to warm up.

WEATHER:

"We could be finally done with significant rain here in Southern California" is what I said last week. For next week? Probably rain. Not exactly 'significant', but windy nonetheless. For the upcoming weekend though, we have a return of low clouds on Friday which will be replaced by sunny skies and pleasant temps through Wednesday. Then the forecasted cold front could come through Thursday/Friday for showers and windy conditions. Next weekend should be nice again. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday: More low clouds but nice. Temps 60/50
• Saturday to Wednesday. Sunny. Temps 68/55
• Thursday/Friday: Showers? Breezy? Temps 60/50
• Nice next weekend...

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Monday to Wednesday with building SW/NW and manageable conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I made a claim on Tuesday that the ocean temp was the coldest I've ever felt in San Diego County. And I was right! Water temps from Del Mar to Oceanside hit a low of 52 degrees. I've surfed Nor-Cal for the past 25 years and the coldest I've ever felt it there was the high 40's; so this week in San Diego wasn't much better. And if you live in L.A., water temps in Long Beach were 51 on Tuesday. Incredible. 

But is 52 degrees the coldest it's ever been along our shores in San Diego County? Thanks to our friends at the Scripps Institute of Technology, they let me know that records at Scripps go back to 1916. And the coldest they've recorded was 51 back in 1971. So if you think this week was cold, it's not the record. 

So what gives with the unusually cold water this week? You can thank 'upwelling'. Depending on where high or low pressure sits in relation to Southern California, it will dictate which way the wind blows. With our bad luck recently, high pressure has been parked over the Eastern Pacific (just off Oregon) so we've had a lot of storms drop from British Columbia and as they do, bring NW winds. Why does that matter? Well, basically we face SW, so NW winds push the warmer top layer away and something needs to replace it from below. And that unfortunately is cold water. And if you're wondering, the opposite is good for us: S or SW wind pushes the water into the California Bight- that crescent shape of land between that makes up Southern California from Point Conception to the Mexican Border. As the water pools up, it warms from the sun and voila! Our water temps warm up. Like our warmest water temp ever recorded in San Diego County...

That was actually in early September of last year at an incredible 82 degrees. A 30 degree swing in just 7 months around here. 

And if you're wondering if the cold water lately is abnormal, you're correct. We should be sitting in the high 50's by now and cruising at 60 by late April. And here are the monthly average water temps for San Diego County so you can play along at home this summer:

• January = 58 degrees
• February = 57 degrees (normally the coldest water temps of the year)
• March = 58 degrees
• April = 60 degrees
• May = 63 degrees
• June = 65 degrees
• July = 67 degrees
• August = 68 degrees (normally the warmest temps of the year)
• September = 66 degrees
• October = 63 degrees
• November = 61 degrees
• December = 59 degrees

Now the numbers above are just historical averages of course. With El Nino coming, we should see temps peak in the high 70's (at least) by September. Break out that tropical wax! 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Looking for a little surf action next week but don't feel like putting on a 5/4? I have just the solution for you- The North County Board Meeting! The weather & waves will be suspect (as usual) so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. again in the Encinitas Lumberyard. This time on Friday, April 14th from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament...

Thanks to everyone that has signed up so far for the North County Board Meeting Golf Tournament on Friday, May 12th at Goat Hill Park. Sponsored by our friends at Venture LLP, we're benefiting the Carlsbad Educational Foundation this year. As a reminder, it's first come first serve (and we're filling up fast), so please reach out ASAP to Rich Clark at rich@logicopy.com or Michael Glenn at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot, hole sponsorship, or prize donation. Thank you as always for the support. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

When all the elements come together in the summer: Sand bottom, steep S swell from a hurricane, and boardshorts! Can't wait. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Clean-cut
Everywhere
Sponsored By Authentic Brands Group. Got Volcom, Billabong, RVCA, And Quiksilver Stickers On My Board