Low, High, Neap, King, and Red
SURF:
Which of those tides doesn't belong? If you said red, congratulations! No prize unfortunately, but when we do get some surf around here, I owe you a wave. I think we hit rock bottom this past week- we can only go up from here.
Red tide, freezing water, south winds, drizzle, and small surf is as bad as it gets. For the weekend, the weather should clean up slightly but the water will still be cold and the red tide will most likely linger. Friday has leftover waist high+ NW windswell while Saturday/Sunday will be waist high from a SW/NW combo. El Nino can't get here soon enough. Jinx! And for all the wave pool naysayers out there- Palm Springs will be 90 this weekend. Just saying. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:19 AM sunrise
- 7:19 PM sunset
- A full 13 hours of sun!
- Water temps have rebounded slightly but are still 57 degrees- a few degrees colder than normal this time of year- while a building El Nino in most of the Pacific is resulting in WARMER than average temps. Just not here.
- And here are the tides this weekend:
- almost 5' at sunrise
- -0.7' just after mid-day
- and about 4.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
Looks like some surf is finally headed our way- along with a weak cold front moving by to the N. What does that mean for us?
Look for a small but fun SW to fill in Monday for chest high surf towards the OC while more chest high NW windswell builds for late Tuesday in SD and lasts into Friday. Conditions may be iffy on Tuesday/Wednesday (no rain at this point) but more Graypril (or May Gray or June Gloom or whatever you call overcast/S winds this time of year).
Next small NW should arrive around the 24th in SD and the OC gets into the act around the 27th with a shoulder high SW? It all sounds good in theory IF... we can get rid of these overcast conditions, the water warms up, and the red tide dissipates...
WEATHER:
The weak little cold front last night dropped almost 1/4" of rain. Good enough to keep my sprinklers off for another week. Today's cold spell should exit the region tomorrow and we'll have mostly sunny skies for the weekend and mild temps. For next week, the small cold front mentioned above should pass by to the N for more clouds mid-week, then hopefully nice weather again next weekend. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:
- Friday: Partly cloudy and 60/50
- Saturday through Monday: Mostly sunny and 65/55
- Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy and 60/50
- Thursday through the weekend: Mostly sunny and 65/55
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Monday to Wednesday with building SW/NW and suspect conditions Tuesday/Wednesday.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The past few weeks we've been discussing the potential of an El Nino fall/winter. With the rapid warming recently in the equatorial Pacific, the National Weather Service issued an El Niño watch this week as scientists observed early signs of the climate pattern known to boost global temperatures, predicting it is more likely than not to arrive... by summer. Here's the Washington Post to discuss:
El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have influences on weather patterns around the globe. Already there are signs of that regime developing: Scientists said waters have warmed quickly off South America’s western coast, something that may “foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin,” the Weather Service said. Their confidence in a developing El Niño is increasing despite well-known limits to climate forecast accuracy at this time of year.
El Niño could arrive as early as next month, they said, with an estimated 62 percent chance it develops some time between May and July.
And conditions lead them to predict 40 percent chances that waters warm so significantly, an El Niño considered to be “strong” will develop by late in the year. The last time that happened, in 2016, global temperatures surged to record highs and helped trigger rainforest loss, coral bleaching, polar ice melt and wildfires.
El Niño is known for sending warmth and precipitation across the southern United States, triggering drought in parts of Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, and limiting development of Atlantic hurricanes. It also tends to accelerate long-term global warming trends. The warm Pacific waters tend to produce more cloud cover, which encourages more of the sun’s warmth to be trapped in the atmosphere. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have said that for every degree Celsius that El Niño warms surface waters in the central equatorial Pacific, the global average surface temperature rises by 0.07 degrees Celsius (0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) two to three months later.
El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have influences on weather patterns around the globe. Already there are signs of that regime developing: Scientists said waters have warmed quickly off South America’s western coast, something that may “foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin,” the Weather Service said. Their confidence in a developing El Niño is increasing despite well-known limits to climate forecast accuracy at this time of year.
El Niño could arrive as early as next month, they said, with an estimated 62 percent chance it develops some time between May and July.
And conditions lead them to predict 40 percent chances that waters warm so significantly, an El Niño considered to be “strong” will develop by late in the year. The last time that happened, in 2016, global temperatures surged to record highs and helped trigger rainforest loss, coral bleaching, polar ice melt and wildfires.
El Niño is known for sending warmth and precipitation across the southern United States, triggering drought in parts of Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, and limiting development of Atlantic hurricanes. It also tends to accelerate long-term global warming trends. The warm Pacific waters tend to produce more cloud cover, which encourages more of the sun’s warmth to be trapped in the atmosphere. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have said that for every degree Celsius that El Niño warms surface waters in the central equatorial Pacific, the global average surface temperature rises by 0.07 degrees Celsius (0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) two to three months later.
The early signs of El Niño, in addition to warmer-than-expected global temperatures so far this year, have prompted some scientists to nudge upward their predictions of where 2023 could rank among Earth’s hottest years on record. In a monthly global temperature analysis posted Wednesday, Robert Rohde, lead scientist for Berkeley Earth, calculated “a substantial” 38 percent chance 2023 could set a record for global warmth.
The Weather Service’s climate forecast includes a 10 percent chance that El Niño fails to materialize by the end of the year, and that the planet remains under what are called “neutral” conditions, with neither El Niño nor La Niña. Without the influence of either regime, broader seasonal weather patterns can be especially difficult to predict.
La Niña, the cooler foil to El Niño, had been the dominant global climate pattern for the past three years, but it ended in February. Marked by cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, it contributed to drought in the Southwest United States and to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
What does this all mean? My wish list would be 25' Wedge this summer and 25' La Jolla Cove this winter; to watch from the safety of the beach of course.
La Niña, the cooler foil to El Niño, had been the dominant global climate pattern for the past three years, but it ended in February. Marked by cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, it contributed to drought in the Southwest United States and to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
What does this all mean? My wish list would be 25' Wedge this summer and 25' La Jolla Cove this winter; to watch from the safety of the beach of course.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Just a reminder that the North County Board Meeting will be meeting TOMORROW (Friday the 14th) if you're looking for a little surf action but don't feel like putting on a 5/4 or battling the red tide. The weather & waves will be suspect (again) so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament. If you have any questions, check out the NCBM website or email me at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
All The Rage
Seized The Day
Starting A Boy Band With Kelly, Cheyne, & Occy Called New Kids On the Tail Block
Michael W. Glenn
All The Rage
Seized The Day
Starting A Boy Band With Kelly, Cheyne, & Occy Called New Kids On the Tail Block
