The Coldest Winter I Ever Spent Was A Spring in San Diego
SURF:
Just when I thought I had it ALL figured out. Rain is gone, sun is out, winds are manageable, and El Nino was coming to warm up our water temps. Not so fast. Our water is FRIGID (more on that below) and models are predicting rain AGAIN (more on that below). For our upcoming weekend though, Friday starts off tiny and a return of low clouds from a weak cold front passing by to the N. That same front will kick up waist high NW windswell for Saturday and the sun will return. We also have small and slowly building SW on Sunday for waist high waves towards the OC. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:27 AM sunrise
- 7:14 PM sunset
- Water temps plummeted to the low 50's this week- but are slowly rebounding to the mid-50's with the nice weather.
- And nothing too exciting with the tides this weekend:
- about 0' at sunrise
- 3.5' at lunch
- down to 1.5' late afternoon
- and back to 2.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
Got a mixed bag for the foreseeable future.
First up is a building combo of SW/NW swells on Monday for chest high sets. Both those swells continue to build mid-week with the peak of the NW occurring Thursday from... a cold front coming through? Hope not. If that's the case, look for showers and bumpy conditions the 2nd half of the work week- along with a sizeable WNW wind/groundswell like we just had a few days ago.
Behind that, models show another storm off Antarctica taking shape this weekend which would send shoulder high SSW swell to us around the 18th. Now we just need the rain to stop and the water to warm up.
WEATHER:
"We could be finally done with significant rain here in Southern California" is what I said last week. For next week? Probably rain. Not exactly 'significant', but windy nonetheless. For the upcoming weekend though, we have a return of low clouds on Friday which will be replaced by sunny skies and pleasant temps through Wednesday. Then the forecasted cold front could come through Thursday/Friday for showers and windy conditions. Next weekend should be nice again. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:
- Friday: More low clouds but nice. Temps 60/50
- Saturday to Wednesday. Sunny. Temps 68/55
- Thursday/Friday: Showers? Breezy? Temps 60/50
- Nice next weekend...
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Monday to Wednesday with building SW/NW and manageable conditions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I made a claim on Tuesday that the ocean temp was the coldest I've ever felt in San Diego County. And I was right! Water temps from Del Mar to Oceanside hit a low of 52 degrees. I've surfed Nor-Cal for the past 25 years and the coldest I've ever felt it there was the high 40's; so this week in San Diego wasn't much better. And if you live in L.A., water temps in Long Beach were 51 on Tuesday. Incredible.
But is 52 degrees the coldest it's ever been along our shores in San Diego County? Thanks to our friends at the Scripps Institute of Technology, they let me know that records at Scripps go back to 1916. And the coldest they've recorded was 51 back in 1971. So if you think this week was cold, it's not the record.
So what gives with the unusually cold water this week? You can thank 'upwelling'. Depending on where high or low pressure sits in relation to Southern California, it will dictate which way the wind blows. With our bad luck recently, high pressure has been parked over the Eastern Pacific (just off Oregon) so we've had a lot of storms drop from British Columbia and as they do, bring NW winds. Why does that matter? Well, basically we face SW, so NW winds push the warmer top layer away and something needs to replace it from below. And that unfortunately is cold water. And if you're wondering, the opposite is good for us: S or SW wind pushes the water into the California Bight- that crescent shape of land between that makes up Southern California from Point Conception to the Mexican Border. As the water pools up, it warms from the sun and voila! Our water temps warm up. Like our warmest water temp ever recorded in San Diego County...
That was actually in early September of last year at an incredible 82 degrees. A 30 degree swing in just 7 months around here.
And if you're wondering if the cold water lately is abnormal, you're correct. We should be sitting in the high 50's by now and cruising at 60 by late April. And here are the monthly average water temps for San Diego County so you can play along at home this summer:
But is 52 degrees the coldest it's ever been along our shores in San Diego County? Thanks to our friends at the Scripps Institute of Technology, they let me know that records at Scripps go back to 1916. And the coldest they've recorded was 51 back in 1971. So if you think this week was cold, it's not the record.
So what gives with the unusually cold water this week? You can thank 'upwelling'. Depending on where high or low pressure sits in relation to Southern California, it will dictate which way the wind blows. With our bad luck recently, high pressure has been parked over the Eastern Pacific (just off Oregon) so we've had a lot of storms drop from British Columbia and as they do, bring NW winds. Why does that matter? Well, basically we face SW, so NW winds push the warmer top layer away and something needs to replace it from below. And that unfortunately is cold water. And if you're wondering, the opposite is good for us: S or SW wind pushes the water into the California Bight- that crescent shape of land between that makes up Southern California from Point Conception to the Mexican Border. As the water pools up, it warms from the sun and voila! Our water temps warm up. Like our warmest water temp ever recorded in San Diego County...
That was actually in early September of last year at an incredible 82 degrees. A 30 degree swing in just 7 months around here.
And if you're wondering if the cold water lately is abnormal, you're correct. We should be sitting in the high 50's by now and cruising at 60 by late April. And here are the monthly average water temps for San Diego County so you can play along at home this summer:
- January = 58 degrees
- February = 57 degrees (normally the coldest water temps of the year)
- March = 58 degrees
- April = 60 degrees
- May = 63 degrees
- June = 65 degrees
- July = 67 degrees
- August = 68 degrees (normally the warmest temps of the year)
- September = 66 degrees
- October = 63 degrees
- November = 61 degrees
- December = 59 degrees
Now the numbers above are just historical averages of course. With El Nino coming, we should see temps peak in the high 70's (at least) by September. Break out that tropical wax!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Looking for a little surf action next week but don't feel like putting on a 5/4? I have just the solution for you- The North County Board Meeting! The weather & waves will be suspect (as usual) so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. again in the Encinitas Lumberyard. This time on Friday, April 14th from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament...
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Clean-cut
Everywhere
Sponsored By Authentic Brands Group. Got Volcom, Billabong, RVCA, And Quiksilver Stickers On My Board
Michael W. Glenn
Clean-cut
Everywhere
Sponsored By Authentic Brands Group. Got Volcom, Billabong, RVCA, And Quiksilver Stickers On My Board
