THE Surf Report

 

Last Call.

SURF:

Nice to see a little hurricane surf earlier in the week (thank you Jova)- and some fun SW today- before summer slowly fades to fall. We may have 7 more days of summer left but it's already feeling like fall. Cooler air temps, morning low clouds have arrived, and the Sierras/Rockies got an early season dusting of snow on the highest peaks. Good news is that we still have leftover inconsistent chest high sets from the SW for Friday and pleasant water temps. For Saturday and Sunday, we look to be on the small side with waist high+ SW and maybe a chest high waves towards the OC. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:34 AM sunrise 
• 6:52 PM sunset 
• and the first day of fall is September 23rd

• Water temps:
• Barely hanging on to 70. Even though water temps weren't tropical around here this summer (as hoped for), the El Nino this winter should at least help keep our water temps near 60 (+/-) this winter. 

• And tides for the weekend are simple:
• 1' at sunrise
• 5' right before lunch
• down to 1' late afternoon
• and up to 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Nothing big on the horizon but we have a small SW filling early in the week for chest high sets in far N County SD by Tuesday. That holds into Wednesday. We also have a small waist high NW swell filling in around the same time too. After that, it's looking small until the end of the month when models show more fun SW showing and MAYBE a hurricane forming. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Great weather this past week will roll into the weekend. We have a slight warm up the next few days, then the clouds and cooler temps return for next week. Here's a quick rundown on the week ahead:

• Friday through Monday: Plenty of sun and temps in the mid 70's at the beaches with a peak on Sunday. Low temps will be mid 60's.
• Tuesday and beyond: High pressure weakens with more night/morning low clouds and temps high 60's during the day and low 60's at night. Break out those parkas!  

BEST BET:

Friday with leftover SW swell and nice conditions or Tuesday with small new SW swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This summer, to say it mildly, doesn't seem to be living up to expectations. No big S swells to light up the Wedge. An an El Nino that continues to slowly build and is lacking in solid hurricane surf. No large storms off New Zealand resulting in small surf for SD. Lots of clouds from April through August. And water temps struggling to hold at 70. 

Even with the building El Nino, it sure seems like our hurricane season has been slow. The forecast was for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 14-20 named storms (15 is average)
• 7-11 hurricanes (8 is average)
• 4-8 of those being major hurricanes (4 is average)

So far we've had:

• 10 named storms
• 7 hurricanes
• 5 of those being major hurricanes

And just to clarify, a tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:

• Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
• Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
• Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
• Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

So with just a week left before the autumnal equinox, are we officially putting summer to rest? The good news is... no. There's still plenty of time for storms to form. In fact, a normal hurricane season looks like:

• 11 named storms by mid September (almost on track)
• 6 hurricanes by mid September (we're slightly above average)
• 3 major hurricanes by mid September (we're above average)

With all these storms though, how come the surf hasn't come with them? Unfortunately, the storms have been hitting a cooler than average pool of water of Baja and most storms have died- or headed towards Hawaii- before hitting our swell window. 

With that being said, the eastern Pacific hurricane season incredibly runs until November 30th, so that leaves us with 10 more weeks to fit in:

• 4 more named storms
• 2 more hurricanes
• 1 more major hurricane

Summer may be ending next week, but hurricane season is still in full swing. Let's end on a high note!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With a building El Nino, it was as supposed to be a down year for hurricane surf on the East Coast this summer- and firing on the West Coast. I want my money back. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Rambunctious
Already Looking Forward To Next Year's Chargers Season
6th Place, 2023 WSL Finals At Lowers