THE Surf Report

 

You Ain't Seen NUTHIN' Yet.

SURF:

Rain is awesome. But the whole season all at once? Not so much. 

Plenty of surf this week saw plenty of run off too from the rain and the result was suspect water conditions. Today things cleaned up slightly and we had head high+ NW groundswell and clean conditions. High pressure sets up shop (temporarily- more on that in the WEATHER section below) and as it does, we'll have offshore winds in it's wake. 

On Friday, we have a quick reinforcement out of the NW for more shoulder high surf (bigger in SD) and another building shoulder high NW late Sunday. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:47 AM sunrise (6:30 paddle out)
• 5:16 PM sunset (5:30 paddle in)
• That's an 11 hour window to surf people. 

• Water temps are still high 50's.

• Along with the nice weather this weekend, the tides will also throw a monkey wrench into your surf sesh (again):
• about 4' at sunrise
• rising to 5.5' mid-morning
• and dropping to -0.5' late afternoon
• and back to 1' at sunset

FORECAST:

The building NW on Sunday peaks on Monday for head high waves in N County SD and overhead sets in SD. Tuesday is a transition day- then the storm door opens again. 

Look for building WNW on Wednesday for overhead surf- and suspect conditions. Models show Thursday and beyond being rainy, stormy, and big surf- with another pulse of large waves on Friday into the weekend and beyond. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

My scale for rain intensity is as follows:

• 0.10"-0.25" = minor
• upwards of 0.5" = showers/rain, not too significant, usually moves through the area quickly
• 1" = solid storm, most of the area can handle it (i.e. minor road flooding, no mudslides, etc)
• 2"+ = big storm, flooding/mudslides in certain areas, may last a day or two
• 3+" = rare storm, cars swept away, building damage

Guess which one we had this week? Yep, 3" in N County SD and over 4" in S County SD. At least it wasn't as bad as the deluge back in mid-April 2020  when we had over 5" in 1 day and 7.5" in less than a week. Good for rivermouth sandbars- bad for everything else. So why am I mentioning this? Models are showing significant rain again for the 2nd half of next week. How much? Forecast charts call for either a ton- or just your typical winter storm(s). We need the rain- but I hope it doesn't come all at once! Regardless, here's what we have on tap for at least the next 7 days:

• Friday: Sunny and nice for January. Temps 63/54
• Saturday: Sunny and really nice. Temps 68/55.
• Sunday: See above.
• Monday/Tuesday: Still nice and slightly cooler at 65/54.
• Wednesday: Showers start to arrive late? Temps 63/55.
• Thursday and beyond: Batten down the hatches? Or at least grab an umbrella. 

BEST BET:

Looking pretty good this weekend with bookend swells early Friday and late Sunday ALONG with great weather. Fire up the Emergency Boardriding System again!:

• Friday with good conditions and fun surf- beware the tides though.
• Late Sunday/Monday with new swell and a low tide afternoons.
• 2nd half of next week may be tricky as new swells roll in- but the weather does too...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Back in early December, rain was hard to come by and even though we were in the middle of an El Nino, I had a bit of nervous laughter. Sure the rain was coming, but when? Of course rain arrived a few days before Christmas and we had another good storm mid-January; but the icing on the cake was this week's downpour. As mentioned above, various spots along the OC and SD coasts received anywhere from 2.5" to 4.5". So before next week's expected storms arrive, where do we stand for the season?

• Los Angeles: 5.6" so far. 96% of normal. 
• Newport Beach: 3.65" so far. Only 67% of normal.
• Oceanside: 5.58" so far and is at 104% of normal. 
• San Diego: 5.06" so far and is 111% of normal.

Amazingly, with last year's La Nina, most locations at this point in time had 8-10" so far and were almost 200% of normal. So what do our current numbers mean? We're on track to have at least a normal winter or an above average El Nino winter. If the big rains arrive next week as expected, we can add another 3+" (at least) to our totals. So stick around and find out! 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Just a reminder the world famous Surf Meeting is TOMORROW, Friday, January 26th and we got surf, sun, and smooth conditions finally. Want to expand your network? Want to support your community? WANT TO SURF MORE? Of course you do. Head down to Georges (south of the Chart House in Cardiff- across from Las Olas) at 8 AM to make some new connections, get a bite before work, and maybe grab a tube or two. Sponsored by our friends at Seawise Financial, it's a great way to start the weekend and give back to your community in the process. Thanks for supporting the North County Board Meeting and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Guess what starts on Monday? Yep, you guessed it- the grandaddy of them all- the Pipe Masters. Looks like there's a fair amount of large surf headed to Hawaii too. Good luck rookies!

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Colossal
Only Listen To Yacht Rock On My Yacht
Got Bit By A Seal And Have Been Frothing To Surf Ever Since