I ❤️ La Nina.
SURF:
El Nino typically means bigger storms from the Aleutians and Baja due to warmer waters. It also means less June Gloom and wearing boardshorts longer in the year. La Nina on the other hand means colder waters and less significant storms as well as more coastal low clouds. And that seems to be the case with this season's La Nina as hurricane formation is non-existent, our water temps are a few degrees colder than average, and our sunny skies are few and far between. BUT... we've had quite the run of surf from the southern hemisphere this La Nina and I'll take that over sunny skies and flat days anytime.
The firing surf today from the SW and late season NW will taper off over the weekend with chest high sets Friday morning and waist high+ surf Saturday/Sunday. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:40 AM sunrise
- 7:56 PM sunset
- Just a reminder the longest day of the year is June 20th- sun will set at 8 PM!
- Buoys are saying water temps are 63-65 but with the upwelling from the recent swells, it feels low 60's FYI. AND.. there are still reports of red tide here and there so beware those of you with sinus problems.
- And tides are LOW in the mornings:
- about -1' at sunrise
- around 3.5' at lunch
- and up to 5' at sunset
FORECAST:
After a lull in the surf this weekend, things ramp up again.
We've got more late season NW for waist to chest high waves in northern SD County and maybe chest high+ sets in far southern SD.
On it's heels Tuesday is a fun SW swell for more chest high+ surf in northern SD County.
That is followed by a fairly sizeable SW swell mid month (June 14-16 timeframe) for well overhead sets. I'm thinking this swell will be slightly larger than the waves we had today. If so, time to turn on the Emergency Boardriding System folks! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to get the latest updates on North County Surf/X (formerly known as Twitter).
WEATHER:
You've probably heard of the heat wave this week terrorizing the western US with temps near 110 in the deserts and 90 inland. For us along the coast, not so much. In fact, we're overcast, drizzle is falling, and I'm wearing a jacket mid-day in June. What does it look like next week? More of the same. Here's what's in store:
- Friday: Cloudy. Temps 68/62.
- Saturday. Models show a peak of sun late in the day? Ha! I'll believe it when I see it. Temps 68/62.
- Sunday and beyond: June Gloom
BEST BET:
- Monday with small but fun NW
- Tuesday with fun SW
- Next weekend with solid SW
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
For all the bad press May Gray and June Gloom get, they are a natural heat shield for Southern California. Anyone who shivered through our overcast Memorial Day at the beach knows that Southern California has a tendency to serve up gray days this time of the year. We call it May Gray and June Gloom, but the heavy-looking gray clouds that blot out the sun aren’t just the bane of beachgoers. They serve an important environmental role. Here's the San Diego Union Tribune to explain:
The featureless marine-layer stratus clouds occur at low levels of the atmosphere, and they generally don’t produce any rain, although they’re capable of producing drizzle or mist. More important, they serve as a natural heat shield for heavily populated coastal Southern California, efficiently reflecting the sun’s rays back into space. This cooling effect makes the Southland more livable in the days near the summer solstice, when the path of sunlight is most direct.
“That natural AC is absolutely part of the culture and ecology in California — certainly keeping property values high along the coast,” said John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at UC Merced. Even if the clouds clear around midday, as they frequently do, they leave the sun less time to heat up the landscape. When the marine layer is especially deep, some beach spots may struggle to clear, or may not clear at all.
The clouds reflect the sun’s radiation away from the Earth’s surface and modulate the exchange of heat between Earth and space. Without the clouds, the loss of moisture from vegetation is hastened, increasing the summer wildfire potential. In addition, the clouds sometimes add a bit of moisture to vegetation and soil in the form of drizzle.
Extreme heat waves like the one that gripped the West Coast this week are caused by exceptionally strong, stubborn ridges of high pressure over the region. They push downward in the atmosphere and squeeze the protective marine layer out. A semi-permanent area of high pressure sets up over the eastern Pacific in the spring and summer. Meanwhile, there is lower pressure inland in California. Since high pressure flows toward lower pressure, this sets up the prevailing northwest onshore winds that blow along the California coast.
The featureless marine-layer stratus clouds occur at low levels of the atmosphere, and they generally don’t produce any rain, although they’re capable of producing drizzle or mist. More important, they serve as a natural heat shield for heavily populated coastal Southern California, efficiently reflecting the sun’s rays back into space. This cooling effect makes the Southland more livable in the days near the summer solstice, when the path of sunlight is most direct.
“That natural AC is absolutely part of the culture and ecology in California — certainly keeping property values high along the coast,” said John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at UC Merced. Even if the clouds clear around midday, as they frequently do, they leave the sun less time to heat up the landscape. When the marine layer is especially deep, some beach spots may struggle to clear, or may not clear at all.
The clouds reflect the sun’s radiation away from the Earth’s surface and modulate the exchange of heat between Earth and space. Without the clouds, the loss of moisture from vegetation is hastened, increasing the summer wildfire potential. In addition, the clouds sometimes add a bit of moisture to vegetation and soil in the form of drizzle.
Extreme heat waves like the one that gripped the West Coast this week are caused by exceptionally strong, stubborn ridges of high pressure over the region. They push downward in the atmosphere and squeeze the protective marine layer out. A semi-permanent area of high pressure sets up over the eastern Pacific in the spring and summer. Meanwhile, there is lower pressure inland in California. Since high pressure flows toward lower pressure, this sets up the prevailing northwest onshore winds that blow along the California coast.
The northwest winds contribute to upwelling, where the cold California Current flows southward from Alaska. Surface waters are pushed aside by the winds and are replaced with cold water from the deep. When moist sea breezes blow across this frigid water, the air is chilled and the water vapor condenses into clouds.
In the atmosphere, temperature normally decreases with altitude. But this chilled layer is much colder than the air immediately above it. The warmer layer acts like a lid or cover trapping the cold air at the surface, in what is called a temperature inversion. The depth of the marine layer can vary. If the inversion “lid” is shallow or low in altitude, it confines the marine layer to the coastal beaches. For example, high pressure aloft can squeeze the temperature inversion closer to the ground — below 1,000 feet above sea level — creating dense fog. In other words, a cloud that is at ground level, explained Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
If the high pressure overhead weakens, the inversion can deepen to more than 1,000 feet. That allows the clouds to form above the ground, creating less fog. “Once the inversion gets to 1,500 feet or higher, that’s when you begin to see clouds and fog further inland across the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, bumping up to the foothills near Pasadena,” Boldt said. When lower pressure approaches the region, the inversion can lift above 3,000 to 3,500 feet, he said. That would push the marine layer well into the mountains or the canyons of the Antelope Valley.
When the northwest winds come down the Central Coast, they interact with the coastal topography as they round Point Conception, behaving much as water does on the downstream side of rocks or obstructions in a river. They can weaken and turn southeasterly over the Southern California Bight, the sweeping concave curvature of the coast that stretches south to the Mexican Border, and includes the Channel Islands.
These veering winds form a counterclockwise eddy circulation near Catalina Island. This coastal or Catalina eddy acts like a tiny low-pressure system that lifts the air and condenses water vapor into low clouds that can produce night and morning drizzle over the ocean and nearby coastal areas.
With the arrival of summer, high pressure usually strengthens over the Southwest. That eliminates the inversion lid, or there sometimes is weak offshore flow replacing the northwesterly onshore winds. The temperature difference between the ocean and the nearby land is reduced, decreasing significant cloud development. Northwest winds and eddies can persist — although they’re often weaker — in the summer and still occasionally give us clouds near the beaches, Boldt said.
High pressure over the Southwest means beachgoers can expect more clear skies, but the moist, protective marine layer that pushes into the inland valleys earlier in the season is largely gone. That means the region is entirely at the mercy of the sun and its heat, except where monsoon thunderstorms produce late-summer clouds. So cheer up- sunny days are ahead! Eventually.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
It’s time for ANOTHER North County Board Meeting event, this time a mixer to support a local surf owned business. From the masterminds that brought you Surfhouse, we give you…. Coffee Coffee! Come join us on Thursday EVENING (coffee isn’t just for breakfast anymore), June 20th at 5:30 PM to grab a drink, maybe a slice of pizza or two, network, and learn about the origins of this iconic business in Leucadia. And feel free to bring a friend! The only prerequisite is to have a passion for riding waves. Thanks for supporting your community and we’ll see you on the 20th!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Why do they call the World Surf League the 'Dream Tour'? Because the pros left Tahiti last week and now they flew into this at Punta Roca, El Salvador. Included on that trip are local heroes Jake Marshall and commentator Chris Cote. Wonder if they're excited to eventually come back to our June Gloom?
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Rising Star
Installed Red Carpet In My House So I'd Feel Like A Pseudo-Celebrity
The Next Dane Reynolds In Waiting
Michael W. Glenn
Rising Star
Installed Red Carpet In My House So I'd Feel Like A Pseudo-Celebrity
The Next Dane Reynolds In Waiting
