THE Surf Report

 

SURF:

Most surfers will ask Santa for a new board at Christmas. Me? I'd rather ask Uncle Sam for barrels on the 4th. And it looks like we'll get our wish. 

But let's first talk about me jinxing last weekend. Sure the weather was great and we had fun little waves on Sunday, but boy was that water cold. All signs pointed to 70 degree+ water temps... and then the NW winds kicked in. The upwelling made the water temps drop from 70 on Friday to 63 on Sunday. Luckily for us, the winds have switched back to SW today and the water is back to a pleasant 70 degrees most everywhere in SD/OC (with the odd mid-60's in LA). For tomorrow, our water temps should hold (jinx) while the NW windswell picks up a touch. Look for waist high+ surf that rolls into Saturday. 

On Saturday, we also have a new small S building and we could see a couple chest high sets at combo spots. On Sunday, the SW holds while the NW backs off and we'll back to waist high+ surf. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 5:44 AM sunrise 
• 8:01 PM sunset 
• And just like that, the days are getting shorter! We've already lost 3 minutes of sunlight compared to last weekend. Don't worry though, there's still plenty of summer to be had. 

• Water temps are 70 and will only stay that way if the NW winds don't blow.

• And tides are starting to mellow out this weekend:
• about 3' at sunrise
• down to 1' late morning
• up to 5.5' in the evening
• and down slightly to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

The small SW from the weekend is met by NW windswell again on Monday for chest high sets. 

After that, models point to fun/good SW swell for the long 4th of July weekend. Along with a touch of sun and 70 degree water, we could be witnessing a unicorn; like a white Christmas (or rain for us Southern California people). Look for chest high surf late on Wednesday the 3rd with shoulder high sets on the 4th. Surf may drop slightly on Friday, then we get reinforcing chest high S swell on Saturday the 6th. And you know what- you deserve it. 

After that, we could see more good SW swell around the 13th/14th. Stop me if you've heard this before- it's been a good spring/summer so far. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf/X (formerly known as Twitter) by clicking the button below! 

WEATHER:

Great weather today may be replaced by a little more stubborn low clouds on Friday/Saturday. Weak high pressure builds early in the week for less low clouds and then high pressure really kicks in late in the week. The fly in the ointment is if inland high pressure pulls moisture off the ocean late next week and the low clouds linger at the beaches during the 4th of July weekend. Hope not. Here's what's in store for the upcoming week:

• Friday/Saturday: A little more low clouds with limited clearing at the beaches. Temps 70/65.
• Sunday to Wednesday: More sun in the afternoons. Temps 72/65.
• Thursday and beyond: Depends on what the building high pressure does. Will we see temps in the high 70's at the beaches and sun? Or will we see stubborn low clouds and cooler temps?...

BEST BET:

• Saturday with small but fun combo swell. 
• Monday: ditto
• Late Wednesday the 3rd through early Sunday the 7th with good SW swell

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you've heard the past decade or so, the earth is a little warmer than we'd like it to be. Whether it's record breaking land or ocean temperatures, it's creating some problems across the globe. Sure, warmer water here in San Diego means more days in trunks (and less days in a 4/3), but on the flip side, it's makes major problems for the rest of the world. Here's a recent article from Fortune magazine with the details:

Recent reports reveal that ocean temperatures are reaching unprecedented highs, raising alarms about the state of our planet. The implications of these rising temperatures are profound, affecting marine ecosystems, weather patterns, and coastal communities. The impacts play out in different ways across regions. Areas around the Black Sea are seeing increases in phytoplankton, or “sea snot,” which disrupts fisheries and maritime trade. Other areas are reporting coral bleaching and dead zones. As we face this new reality, it's crucial to understand what these changes mean for different regions and the global climate.

The Alarming Data

According to a recent UNESCO report, the rate of ocean warming has doubled in the last 20 years, with sea levels rising at an accelerated pace over the past three decades. This rapid warming is driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions, which trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and subsequently transfer it to the oceans. 

Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Rising ocean temperatures have devastating effects on marine life. Warmer waters disrupt ecosystems, causing coral bleaching, shifting species distributions, and reducing biodiversity. Coral reefs, which support about 25% of marine species, are particularly vulnerable. As temperatures rise, corals expel the symbiotic algae that give them color and nutrients, leading to large-scale bleaching events.

These changes also affect fish populations. Warmer waters can alter breeding cycles and migration patterns, impacting both commercial and subsistence fisheries. This threatens the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on fishing for food and income.

Climate and Weather Patterns

The heating of the oceans also influences global weather patterns. Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to more intense and frequent hurricanes and typhoons. Warmer waters provide the energy needed for these storms to form and intensify. The economic and social impacts of these events can be devastating, particularly for coastal regions already vulnerable to extreme weather. Higher sea temperatures can significantly affect hurricane activity. This trend suggests that communities along the Atlantic coast may face more severe storm seasons in the future, necessitating stronger preparedness and resilience measures.

Regional Variations and Global Implications

Different regions experience the effects of ocean warming in varied ways. The Arctic, for example, is warming faster than any other region on Earth. This rapid change contributes to the melting of sea ice, which in turn affects global sea levels and weather patterns far beyond the polar regions. As the ice melts, it exposes darker ocean surfaces that absorb more heat, creating a feedback loop that accelerates warming.

In the tropics, rising temperatures contribute to more frequent and severe coral bleaching events, threatening biodiversity hotspots and the livelihoods of coastal communities. In temperate regions, changes in ocean currents can disrupt local climates, leading to unexpected weather patterns and impacts on agriculture and water resources.

Conclusion

The record-breaking ocean temperatures we are witnessing today are a stark reminder of the profound changes occurring in our climate system. These changes have wide-ranging impacts, from marine ecosystems to global weather patterns, and pose significant challenges for communities worldwide. By understanding how the health of our oceans impacts regions and communities, we are better able to take action towards a more sustainable and resilient future for our planet.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The quintessential American surf spot with just about every surfer in America in the line up. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
As American As Apple Pie
Uncle Sam's Uncle
Odds On Favorite To Win Gold, '24 Olympics

On a side note, THE Surf Report will be dark next week- I'll be surfing and shooting off fireworks. Most likely at the same time.