40 days and 40 nights.
SURF:
Had our first real SW swell of the season this week with a touch of NW. Lots of fun shoulder high+ surf around town and head high+ in the OC. Weather was a little funky but good surf will put a smile on anyone's face.
Today we have leftover SW swell for more chest to shoulder high surf and head high sets in the OC. The NW has backed off but more of that this weekend (kind of- more on that below). Wind is currently variable at 3 and will blow around 10mph from the SW this afternoon and the clouds may stick around at the coast all day. Water temp is 57. As far as the weekend is concerned, the heavens are going to open up if you didn't hear already. Should be our first real storm of the year and it's only fitting we had to wait until the end of winter to get it. Saturday morning starts off slow with just leftover chest high SW swell and winds out of the S at 15mph. Then the SW windswell kicks into gear in the afternoon with overhead sets and wind in the 30mph range. Lots of rain too. By Sunday morning it's a real mess with big stormsurf in control and winds out of the W at 25+ mph. If you're desperate to surf (like me) it's going to be a real battle to not get swept down the beach- or out to sea. Time for some spring cleaning around the house this weekend.
Tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, almost -1' at lunch, and back to 4' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the conditions at
Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
After a wild weekend of waves and weather, things don't get much better early in the week as there will still be residual hangover from the lingering storm. Hopefully by late Tuesday/Wednesday morning things are back to normal but there isn't much surf to speak of.
By Thursday though we should be in the swing of things again wtih chest high+ NW for north county SD/OC and shoulder high+ in south SD.
The southern hemisphere has been active lately too with some small background SW lined up for late in the week and better SW towards the end of the month. Long story short- skip the early part of the work week and wait for the 2nd half.
WEATHER:
Not much to tell you that you don't already know- the weather is going to be brutal this weekend. Just check out that monster in the pic above. Today we have some overcast conditions and cool temps and then the rain should start after midnight. Winds tomorrow morning will be 25mph+ from the S and then SW late in the day. Sunday has more strong 25mph winds but turning to the W and with showers. Rainfall totals should be over an inch and up to 2' of snow in the local mountains. Monday the storm backs off but we'll still have junky NW winds around 20mph and an odd shower. Tuesday looks to be a transition day and by Thursday we should have nice cool sunny weather. Models show another trough of low pressure setting up shop offshore late in the week so we're at least due for some clouds next weekend and cool temps again.
BEST BET:
Even though today isn't that exciting, you may want to get some of that leftover SW swell before the storm hits. Or wait until next Thursday when that new fun NW shows and the weather finally cooperates!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So what’s the latest on the weather around the globe lately? NOAA put out their latest monthly/quarterly report on Mother Earth and here are the hightlights (or lowlights depending on how you look at it). The globe experienced its 22nd warmest February since record keeping began in 1880. Arctic sea ice extent was the fifth lowest extent on record for February at 6.9 percent below average. Additionally, La Niña conditions continued to weaken during February. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to dissipate by the end of April. February 2012 was the coolest February on record since 2008. However, February 2012 also marks the 324th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below average temperatures was February 1985.
Global temperature highlights: February
• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2012 was the 22nd warmest in the 133-year period of record and coolest since 2008, at 54.57°F, which is 0.67°F above the 20th century average of 53.9°F.
• Looking only at land, the global land surface temperature was 0.68°F above the 20th century average of 37.8°F making this the 37th warmest February on record and coolest February since 1994. It was also the coolest month on record since January 2008.
• For the ocean, the February global sea surface temperature was 0.65°F above the 20th century average of 60.6°F making it the 12th warmest February on record.
Global temperature highlights: December – February
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the December–February period was 0.74°F above the 20th century average of 53.8°F making it the 17th warmest such period since records began in 1880 and coolest December–February since 2008.
• The December–February worldwide land surface temperature was 1.06°F above the 20th century average, the 20th warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.59°F above the 20th century average and 15th warmest such period on record.
Global temperature highlights: Year to date
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–February period was 0.67°F above the 20th century average of 53.8°F making it the 20th warmest such period in the 133-year period of record.
• The January–February worldwide land surface temperature was 0.77°F above the 20th century average, the 33rd warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.61°F above the 20th century average and was the 14th warmest such period on record.
• La Niña continued to weaken during February. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to dissipate by the end of April.
Polar sea ice and precipitation highlights
• The average Arctic sea ice extent during February was 6.9 percent below average, ranking as the fifth lowest February extent since satellite records began in 1979. The five lowest February Arctic ice extents have occurred in the last seven years. February 2012 is the 14th consecutive February and the 129th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
• On the opposite pole, the Antarctic sea ice extent during February was 20.3 percent above average, the fifth highest on record.
• The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for February was the eighth highest monthly extent in the 46-year period of record. The North American snow cover extent was the 16th lowest February extent on record, while the Eurasian snow cover was the third highest February. The Eurasian February snow cover of 12.0 million square miles was also the fifth highest snow cover extent for the continent among all months on record.
• The snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere during the winter (December-February) was the 14th highest on record. The North American winter snow cover extent was the fourth lowest, partially driven by low snow totals across the contiguous United States. The Eurasian winter snow cover extent was fourth highest on record, due to the heavy snowfall observed across central and eastern Europe during January and February.
• Precipitation was variable across the globe during February. Dryness prevailed across much of Western Europe, with France reporting its driest February since 1959, Spain since 2000, and England since 1998. Rainfall was much heavier than average in southeastern Australia, with major flooding occurring in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. This rainfall was associated in part with La Niña.
For the complete report (with really cool graphics and stuff) check it out
here.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
if you're looking for motivation to get out there this weekend, look no further- I've got new footage from new guys Coleburn and Simpo as well as new footage from old guys Taj and Cory. Let's be honest- no amount of good clips is going to get you to paddle out this weekend. But at least cruising the blog will give you something to do. And of course check out the mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
The total opposite of this weekend. For more shots of what good waves and weather look like, check out
Surf There Now.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Motivational Speaker
Bracket Buster
More Crazy Than Kerrazy
