THE Surf Report- late edition

Well wasn't that special.

SURF:
Where to start? The super warm water temps for May? The solid SW swell early in the week? The great beach weather last weekend? The crazy windswell the past few days? The enormous tide swings? Hard to fit it all in 1 surf report. Let's get down to business then.

Plenty of good surf today from a new little SW and leftover smaller NW windswell. Sets most everywhere are head high, the sun is trying to keep the low clouds at bay, wind is SW at 10, and the water temp is a pleasant 67. Can't complain much. Tomorrow is more of the same with slightly smaller surf and by Sunday it's small but fun. All in all fun today and tomorrow morning and small Sunday.

Tides the next few days are about 0' at sunrise, up to 4.5' mid-morning, down to 1' mid-afternoon and up to 6' at sunset. FYI- the peak high tide is about 7.2' around 9pm and down to -1.7' at 3am- that's almost a 9' tide swing. It's like the Bay of Fundy around here. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the surf backs off on Sunday, it really backs off. Looking pretty small next week as there are no big storms aimed our way. Models hint at some NW windswell towards next Friday but that's about it.

We do though have a solid storm on the charts towards the end of this month in the southern hemisphere but that would give us SW swell almost 2 weeks out- about June 7th- and that's a long time to wait for waves.

There's actually some clouds flaring up off mainland Mexico- but I don't expect it to turn in to a hurricane that would send us surf. So until then, look for small surf in the near future.

WEATHER:

Tough call here. Basically we've had low pressure sitting above us the past few days and weak cold fronts keep coming into the mix. This has resulted in lower than normal temperatures (mid 60's vs. 70 this time of year) and clouds at the beaches that sometimes stick around longer than expected. Long story short, expect more of the same this weekend- night and morning low clouds with a chance of afternoon clearing. Temps will be about 65 again and breezy SW winds should continue. And if that wasn't odd enough, models are showing a stronger cold front for Monday night into Tuesday that could bring us a 1/4" of showers. The 2nd half of next week should return to normal around here with temps near 70, sunnier skies, and less wind.

BEST BET:
Get a surf in tonight before both swells fade away late this weekend!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

It’s official: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (man is that a long title) has made their first prediction for our upcoming Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

And it sucks.

NOAA’s CPC announced today that a below-normal hurricane season is most likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season, a 35 percent probability of a near-normal season and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Basically SD county never gets real hurricane surf due to the extreme S angle of most storms (our Orange County brethren get most of the action), so a ‘normal’ hurricane season in north county SD doesn’t amount to much. With this new forecast being a 55% probability of ‘below’ normal activity, man are we due for a flat summer once those southern hemi swells start to die off in July.

NOAA says seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 11 to 16 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

 An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September. Tropical Storm Alvin, the season’s first named storm, developed on May 15.

 The key climate factors behind this outlook are:
•A continuation of the climate pattern responsible for the ongoing era of low-activity for Eastern Pacific hurricanes that began in 1995;

•ENSO neutral (meaning  El Niño or La Niña is unlikely), but with near- or below-average sea surface temperatures in eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

“Although a below-normal season is most likely this year, we encourage everyone to get prepared for the start of the season and to check the forecast as storms develop,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service. “It only takes one storm making landfall in your area to make it a bad year for you, regardless of the overall activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. So residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.”

The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where, or when any of these storms may hit land. Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer or fall. Also, on average, two to three storms per season affect western Mexico or Central America.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Looking for a few minutes to waste away in your life? Then check out some solid clips of Mason Ho at the Wedge, Josh Kerr putting his 'Neil Diamond' through the paces (in 1' surf and making it look like 6' Lowers), and that 18 year old wonder kid (the next John John I hear) Felipe Toledo. Check out the story on the blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check AND an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever heard of Area 51, that super top secret military base in the Nevada desert? Also got their own stealth wave pool technology out there too. Reversed engineered it with the help of those Roswell aliens. Mighty nice of those little green buggers.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Remarkable
Aquaman
Made A Steve Lis Fish With My 3D Printer